MLB Picks: Thursday, September 26th gives us a six/five split slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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Greetings Gamers! We have double the Thursday fun with a 6/5 split slate as the regular season winds down.
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Early Slate
Minnesota Twins at RHP Jordan Zimmermann – 5.5 implied runs
On the season, RHP Jordan Zimmermann has been a tire fire inside a dumpster fire. Over 22 starts, he has a 1-12 record with a 6.85 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 19 home runs allowed in 107.2 innings. At this rate, if he would have pitched 200 innings this season he would be in the top three for home runs allowed. Best of all, he has one more season on his five-year, $120M contract. Since the beginning of last year, lefties have tagged him for a 2.00 HR/9 and righties 1.53 HR/9.
The Twins have not yet clinched a playoff spot and the AL Central is still up for grabs. Any combination of two Minnesota wins and two Cleveland losses and they clinch. This is a long way of saying they still have something to play for and we should see their starters.
Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano are the core four. After them, look to C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop for differentiation. Jorge Polanco is always in play, as well.
Afternoon Slate
San Francisco Giants vs. LHP Kyle Freeland – 4.7 implied runs
It is amusing how close LHP Kyle Freeland and Jordan Zimmermann are with their production. Freeland has made 22 starts with a 3-11 record, a 6.84 ERA, 1.59 WHIIP and 25 home runs over 101.1 innings. If he had pitched 200 innings, he would be leading the league with home runs. Let us not forget he was sent to the minors for half a dozen starts where he put up worse stats.
While it is not exciting, the Giants are solid with several right-handed hitters we can target. Mike Yastrzemski leads the way with career lefty-killers Evan Longoria and Buster Posey. Then we can consider Kevin Pillar, Mauricio Dubon and Joey Rickard as contrarian options.
Main Slate
New York Mets vs. RHP Jordan Yamamoto – 5.1 implied runs
After a solid start, despite skipping the AAA level, RHP Jordan Yamamoto has been in a downward spiral. Over his last 10 starts, he has lasted only 49.2 innings with a 6.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 11 home runs allowed. The nearly one strikeout per inning is still solid, though the 10.9 BB% is not.
The Mets are eliminated from the playoffs, though they are at home. We should still see a solid lineup from them with rookie Pete Alonso leading the way. Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano are all viable choices Thursday night.
Late Slate
Houston Astros at RHP Jaime Barria – 5.9 implied runs
The Astros are still playing to reach a better record than the Yankees and Dodgers and earn home field advantage. While they have been strategically resting key players in Seattle, we should see a solid lineup. It has not officially been announced as of this writing, but it looks like RHP Jaime Barria will draw the start. He has allowed a 2.43 HR/9 in his last 454 righty-righty matchups. Surprisingly, opposite-handed batsmen have only a 0.95 HR/9 in that same stretch.
Focus on the usual power bats with Alex Bregman, George Springer and Yordan Alvarez. The next group is Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel. Then we can round things out with the third outfield and whoever is behind the dish for differentiation.
As always, reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
Awesemo’s MLB Projections
In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock. In addition, we also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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