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MLB DFS Tournament Picks & Home Runs 5/3/22

Terry McBride

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A large 11-game Tuesday of MLB DFS action has some excellent divisional matchups from coast to coast, with premium pitching on the mound for many teams and high-end bats facing potentially flammable pitchers. Overall power across the league is down significantly, something that is reflected in today’s power index, where no full lineup is cracking the magic number of 10, and a wide range of teams are falling short of even half that indication of power. The dead-ball era may be in full swing, or it may be happenstance, or cold weather, any number of factors could be in play early on. The importance of trusting numbers until tangible facts can be accounted for with adjustments is critical at this point in the season. Underperformers will return to their previous heights and overperformers will regress, baseball simply takes time. And if you think we’re referring partly to Orioles’ starter Bruce Zimmermann, you know us well. Getting to a mix of the premium arms along with the day’s more likely spots for run-scoring is relatively easy on this slate. The board includes a number of quality offenses and a Coors Field game with at least one targetable pitcher. The rolling Yankees and Blue Jays are squaring off in Toronto, the Giants and Dodgers are dueling in Los Angeles and the two Chicago teams are facing one another on an ugly weather day in the Windy City. With a wide range of MLB DFS picks today on the board, there are strong spots for leverage on the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers tools for both DraftKings and FanDuel, targeting those spots along with the chalkier options from atop the probability board is the approach on a daily fantasy baseball slate that could go any number of directions.

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Top Home Run Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one or two out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, this will give each team one of the top choices. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

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Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 7.50

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 3.11

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 5.97

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert — 12.43

Cincinnati Reds: Tommy Pham — 4.84

Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 10.78

Detroit Tigers: Austin Meadows — 10.08

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 5.63

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 7.04

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 12.02

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 4.73

Milwaukee Brewers: Andrew McCutchen — 5.67

Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa — 10.78

New York Yankees: Josh Donaldson — 6.51

Oakland Athletics: Kevin Smith — 6.42

Pittsburgh Pirates: Dan Vogelbach — 8.22

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 4.14

Seattle Mariners: Eugenio Suarez — 10.24

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 6.01

Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 6.45

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 14.31

Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz — 8.31

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB picks and predictions today 5/3/22 home run projections DraftKings MLB DFS FanDuel Fantasy Baseball

MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment

Tonight’s slate has two games with noteworthy weather situations. The forecast in Chicago calls for a chilly, windy, grey day that may or may not include raindrops. The game seems likely to play, but the hitting conditions will be miserable, with a forecasted wind of 20 mph blowing in toward home plate on an already lousy night. The situation in Detroit looks even grimmer, there is rain coming down throughout the day and it is forecast to last into the night, putting the risk of postponement squarely on the board. Monitoring later updates to postponement probabilities as weather data tightens up around game time will be important, there are interesting bats on both sides of a game with ugly pitching, if it plays it could be a sneaky under-owned spot for GPPs.

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MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The deep Tuesday pitching slate features several proven aces and a handful of potentially emerging young starters of similar caliber. The top name on the probability board on both sites is young righty Joe Ryan, who sits marginally ahead of the more familiar duo of Carlos Rodon and Brandon Woodruff, both of whom look like strong options despite very different matchups. Flame-throwing White Sox righty Michael Kopech will be taking on the high-strikeout crosstown Cubs in what should be excellent pitching conditions, while Alek Manoah will be in more danger but should have a similar strikeout ceiling against the Yankees. Julio Urias will be dueling Rodon in a battle of premium southpaws in the late game from Los Angeles, Cristian Javier is facing the Mariners who were shut out by a far worse starter just last night, Noah Syndergaard will be looking to find strikeouts to match his early quality in a tough spot against the Red Sox, and Tyler Mahle will be looking to get his season on track in an interesting matchup against the Brewers. From well down the probability board, but also the salary and popularity list, talented German Marquez will be facing the low-end Nationals lineup in a start at Coors Field while the more expensive Jameson Taillon is similarly unlikely but also low-priced and unowned in his start against the loaded Blue Jays.

Twins starter Joe Ryan may not yet be a household name, but an increasing proportion of those houses just don’t watch baseball. For those paying attention, Ryan has been an early standout. The righty has a sparkling 1.17 ERA and a strong 3.28 xFIP over his first four starts, reaching 23 innings of 30.1% strikeout baseball so far. Ryan made five starts om 2021 and threw 26.2 innings while racking up a 30% strikeout rate, the numbers are believable at this level. Ryan has walked 7.2% of opposing hitters while allowing a 37.3% hard-hit rate with a 5.9% barrel rate this year, contact that opposing hitters have turned into just two home runs, a 2.4% rate. Ryan features elite stuff, but he is not a pitcher that overwhelms with power. He relies on above-average horizontal movement on his fastball and a slider-changeup mix that has been elite at inducing swing-and-miss and limiting quality contact. Opposing hitters have a .259 slugging percentage and a .326 xSLG against Ryan’s slider, a pitch with a 42.6% whiff rate. Ryan has induced an excellent 13.8% swinging-strike rate this season and his CSW% sits well above average at 31.5%. Ryan benefits from a matchup at now pitcher-friendly Camden Yards that will feature an opposing Orioles active roster that has managed just a .109 ISO and a 1.49% home run rate against righties this season, the 25th and 29th ranked marks in the league. Baltimore has created runs 15% worse than average in the split and they have a 24th-ranked 24.2% strikeout rate. This is an excellent spot for the talented young righty, Ryan is justifiably popular on both sites tonight.

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San Francisco southpaw Carlos Rodon is on the mound against the lethal Dodgers lineup tonight. The lefty has all the talent required to carve up a lineup even as good as the Dodgers, but this is by no means an easy outing or a good spot, particularly when compared with the cakewalk for which the other established ace on the slate should be in store tonight. Last year Rodon had a 34.6% strikeout rate over 132.2 innings while inducing a 15% swinging-strike rate and pitching to a 3.17 xFIP. In his first four starts in San Francisco, the lefty has a 2.19 xFIP with a 1.17 ERA and a ludicrous 43.2% strikeout rate. He has limited barrels to 4.9% this season, although his hard-hit rate has jumped slightly from 36.1% last year to 39% this season. Rodon will be facing a Dodgers lineup that has been better against right-handed pitching, this year against lefties, the Dodgers’ active roster has a 24% strikeout rate that ranks 21st in baseball and they have actually created runs 10% worse than average with a collective 90 WRC+ in the split. By comparison, Los Angeles has created runs 17% above average against righties this year. The team has a 2.45% home run rate that ranks 13th in the powerless season, while their .125 ISO sits 18th in the split. The Dodgers remain excellent, however, much of this is likely a small-sample blip, the same active roster struck out just 19.9% in the aggregate against lefties last season while creating runs 11% better than average and compiling a .194 ISO that was good for fourth in the split and a 3.93% home run rate that was seventh best. This is probably a situation that warrants rostering both sides of the matchup, Rodon is appealing as the second-ranked pitcher by his probability of being a top-two scorer on DraftKings, where he is efficiently owned. The southpaw is perhaps more interesting on the single-pitcher FanDuel slate, where he lands second with an 8.4% probability of being the top starter but is pulling in an ownership projection of just 6.7% at his inflated $11,100 salary. The matchup and price are keeping the field at bay on the blue site, creating a tournament opportunity around Rodon in what is a sneaky-good spot if the Dodgers continue their lackluster performance in the split.

Of course, all of the opportunity around Rodon will swing on just how many fantasy points righty Brandon Woodruff is able to ring up in a start against the pathetic Cincinnati Reds. Winners of just three games so far, the Reds are off to the second-worst start over 22 games in major league history, trailing only the 1988 Orioles who began the year 1-21. Cincinnati’s active roster has a .127 ISO and a 23.1% strikeout rate against righties this season, both rank 18th in baseball. Those are their good qualities. The team’s 1.88% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season sits 23rd in baseball and their anemic 71 WRC+ sits 29th out of the league’s 30 teams. The Reds have created runs 29% worse than average in the split this season and they strike out at a healthy clip. Woodruff is an excellent starter in what should be a very safe situation in a high-floor high-ceiling game. The righty costs just $8,900 on DraftKings, where he is pulling in nearly a 45% ownership share. At $9,700 on FanDuel, Woodruff is still highly popular, nearly breaking through the 30% mark. The righty made 30 starts last year, turning in 179.1 solid innings with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk percentage. Woodruff pitched to a 3.05 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP with a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and he was excellent at limiting quality contact. Woodruff allowed a 5.8% barrel rate and just a 32.4% hard-hit percentage last year, a trait that he has continued with a 5.6% barrel rate and a 35.2% hard-hit percentage this season, despite shaky outings thus far. Woodruff has turned in just 18.2 innings in four starts, but he reached 95 pitches in each of his last two outings, so there are no concerns about pitch count. The ace is simply yet to find his form after a short Spring, this has all the makings of a fantastic get-right spot. Woodruff’s inflated ratios are thrown by a bumpy first outing that saw him go just 3.2 innings and allow seven earned runs against the Cubs. He has been better in the subsequent three starts, including a nine-strikeout gem against the Pirates two games back. Woodruff will be fine and he is likely to post a very high fantasy score in this game, his ownership is the only concern, the righty is nearly four times as popular as he is likely to succeed on the blue site. On DraftKings, Woodruff has a 20.2% probability of being a top-two scorer but he is owned 43.4% of the time, negative leverage that needs to be considered but is likely worth rostering regardless, this matchup is simply too favorable.

The risk-averse can skip on to stacks; this section discusses a pitcher who has been bad on the surface this season and who will be pitching in Coors Field tonight. German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA and a 5.22 xERA in 21 innings over his first four starts this season, but perhaps more concerning is the extremely limited 14.7% strikeout rate he has managed to this point. Marquez has a 23.5% rate for his career and he has reached as high as 28.2% in 2018. The righty has induced just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate this season, down significantly from the 12% he posted last year and his 11.5% career average. Marquez appears to be throwing the same mix of pitches in the same fashion as he was just last season, a year over which he had a 3.64 xFIP with a 4.40 ERA and a 23.3% strikeout rate. The righty does sport a 3.49 xFIP this season, and opposing hitters have managed a .329 batting average on balls in play against him, some of which is down to happenstance on premium contact. Marquez has yielded a staggering 48.1% hard-hit rate and an inflated 9.1% barrel rate this season, both are well up from the 38.9% and 5.3% marks he has last year and the 5.8% and 38.9% he averages for his career. The righty is pitching at home, a situation that has historically not had the impact many expect from Coors Field. While Marquez would assuredly be a near-elite starter with half his games coming in many other parks, he does have a 24% strikeout rate and a 3.43 xFIP for his career in home starts as compared to a 23% strikeout rate and a 3.81 xFIP on the road. Marquez walks more hitters at home and he allows a better batting average, there is no negating the spacious ballpark’s impact on base hits and BABIP, which ultimately is reflected in his 4.73 ERA at home for his career, but Marquez has matching home run rates in the home/away split, and he is capable of posting a strong score in this park in the right matchup. The righty is facing a Nationals team that has been decent at avoiding strikeouts with a 21.9% rate that sits 13th in the split this season, but one that also has just a .102 ISO and a 1.61% home run rate, the Nos. 26 and 25 marks for power. The Nationals have created runs 7% worse than average against righties this season. If he can find a few strikeouts on talent, Marquez could be an interesting wrinkle on tonight’s slate. The righty does not rate well on the Top Pitchers Tool. He has just a 2.6% probability of landing as a top-two starter for $7,100 on DraftKings, but he will be owned by just 0.5% of the field. On FanDuel, Marquez will have a similar 2.8% probability of being the best overall option and he is projected for the same 0.5% ownership for just $6,600, a salary that helps pay for a lot of bats that others will not reach in combination with higher-priced pitchers. To reiterate, this is a play that is unlikely to succeed and is for tournaments only, it is easy to get beyond the field on Marquez shares without damaging a lineup portfolio and he has just enough chance to make it worthwhile in the matchup.


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Coors Field

With Coors Field on the slate the binary question of simply play or skip arises for some, while others prefer to dig into under-owned individual hitters or even ride with the chalk when one or both of the options appears positively leveraged. The Rockies align with the last of those possibilities so far on today’s Top Stacks Tool. The team stands atop the board with the highest probability of being the best stack of the night and they will be very popular at a 14.5% ownership share that ranks second to only the opposing Nationals on the DraftKings slate. They are at slightly positive leverage despite the popularity on that site, the probability of success just barely outpaces the hefty ownership. On FanDuel, the Rockies are less expensive and easier to add to a lineup, leading to a slate-high 20.1% collective ownership share and the worst negative leverage mark on the board on the blue site. The opposing Nationals are the second-ranked team by probability and popularity, their 13.3% ownership share sits at a negative leverage score on FanDuel as well. With the weight of popularity on the game, undercutting the public popularity, particularly on lousy bats such as any Nationals who are not named Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, or Josh Bell, is a strong tournament approach. The Rockies can be rostered at high prices on DraftKings, any of Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon are interesting for stacking purposes, while Sam Hilliard could add underappreciated lefty power against a middling right-handed starter. All of those players will be more than 10% owned on DraftKings and they are in the mid-teens or higher on the FanDuel slate, they are difficult to roster in truly unique combinations without exercising some creativity in lineup building.

New York Yankees

Just kidding. The Yankees are still the Yankees, but opposing pitcher Alek Manoah actually stands a good chance at limiting their premium contact and power while racking up strikeouts. The team is in play but they are less of a priority than they have been in recent days where they have repeatedly been featured in this space. The team ranks 13th by Awesemo’s probability ratings on the Top Stacks Tool for both sites, though they are all low-owned and positively leveraged.

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

The Mariners went bust as a featured stack yesterday, getting shut out in the last good start of Jake Odorizzi’s life. The shockingly good performance should not dissuade gamers from looking back to the Mariners, despite a tougher matchup against Cristian Javier. The young righty has been a hybrid pitcher for the Astros, performing at elite levels as a multi-inning reliever or in spot starts, and he is getting a more regular turn in the rotation. So far this season, Javier has a 1.35 ERA with a 3.36 xFIP and an excellent 31.4% strikeout rate with just a 5.9% walk percentage. He has yielded just 33.3% hard contact this season as well, making it a challenging spot for Seattle, but one that sees them as a positive leverage play from the middle of the board and an evenly owned team on the FanDuel slate. The Mariners’ lineup includes strong options such as Adam Frazier, Ty France, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez and the overperforming J.P. Crawford. The back of the lineup is sneaky with young quality as well, any of Julio Rodriguez, Abraham Toro, or Jarred Kelenic can contribute to a stack at low cost and no popularity, while catcher Tommy Murphy can always provide sneaky power where his position is needed. The Mariners sit on a broad plateau of teams with single-digit probabilities of being the top stack tonight, they are an interesting tournament option at low ownership.

On the other side of the same game, the Astros rate well on both sites by their probability of being a top stack. The team is facing righty Chris Flexen who should be targetable with the excellent Houston bats. Flexen is a low-strikeout contact pitcher that this team should be able to get to early and often, the Astros barely strike out against premium pitching, a matchup against Flexen should yield a significant number of batted ball events. The Astros’ active roster is sixth in baseball with a (shockingly low) .166 ISO against righties, they have a 3.40% home run rate that ranks fifth and they have created runs 3% better than average. The Houston stack ranks third on the FanDuel slate with a 7.4% probability of being the best option and a 1.9 leverage score, on DraftKings they rank fourth by probability and sit at slightly negative leverage, but they remain a strong option at low raw ownership. The Astros lineup plays from one through nine, with Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez making up an elite foursome that has strong hit tools, barely strikes out and hits for power. The first three hitters in the group had strikeout rates of 13.4%, 10.4% and 13.3% for the season last year, while Alvarez struck out at a 24.2% rate in the cleanup spot but did so while barreling the ball in 15.9% of his batted ball events and generating a whopping 54.2% hard-hit rate. The elite lineup continues with Yuli Gurriel and Kyle Tucker, who would hit atop most lineups in the league, as well as underrated Chas McCormick and rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena. Whichever catcher is in the confirmed lineup can always be rostered in Astros stacks as an afterthought where backstops are mandatory.

St. Louis Cardinals

One of the better spots for leverage on the slate comes from a team with a loaded lineup that has underperformed against right-handed pitching this season. The heavily right-handed St. Louis Cardinals have been elite against lefties, destroying the split for a WRC+ 39% above average, but against righties they dip to a 19th ranked 90 WRC+, creating runs 10% worse than average in the split. The team has completely lacked power against righties this year, their .093 ISO is 28th in baseball while their 1.43% home run rate sits 30th. However, the Cardinals have been excellent at keeping the ball in play in the split, their 18.3% collective strikeout rate ranks first in baseball against right-handed pitchers, and there is simply too much premium quality for the deep struggles to last much longer. St. Louis was not outstanding against righties last season, but this active roster compiled a .162 ISO and a 3.21% home run rate in the split and their 144 total home runs ranked sixth against righties overall. The team is facing low-strikeout righty Brad Keller in what should be an opportunity for all those balls in play to turn into runs. Keller has an 18.9% strikeout rate this season while pitching to a 3.36 xFIP and a 2.19 ERA. The latter two marks are strong, but the righty had a 5.39 ERA and a 4.57 xFIP last season and he has never been below a 4.26 xFIP for a season. This is a targetable pitcher and the Cardinals come with positive leverage on both sites, they are worth considering despite the struggles in the split this season.

The confirmed lineup for St. Louis leads off with quality in the form of switch-hitting Tommy Edman, who is continuing to rise in quality in his age-27 season. Edman stole 30 bases in 691 plate appearances while slashing .262/.308/.387 with a .125 ISO and 11 home runs over the course of last season. The on-base percentage was a sore point for a player with so much speed, and there was an inkling that better contact on an adjusted swing plane could lead to added power as well. Edman is slashing .306/.405/.486 with a .181 ISO over his first 85 plate appearances this year, and he already has three home runs and five stolen bases. Edman is a valuable individual contributor who is also a strong correlation play with the premium bats that follow him in the lineup. He is expensive at $5,400 but with just 0.9% ownership on DraftKings, while his cheap $3,400 asking price does not impact his popularity on FanDuel, Edman is under-owned.

Paul Goldschmidt barreled the ball in 13.6% of his batted ball events last year while generating a 50.2% hard-hit percentage and hitting 31 home runs in 679 plate appearances. The elite first baseman added 12 stolen bases and created runs 38% above average, providing excellent quality for fantasy scoring. Goldschmidt is off to a .296/.367/.420 start to his season, but his power has been slow to arrive. He has just two home runs and a .123 ISO but still has managed to create runs 36% better than average. Goldschmidt is worth the salary at no popularity across the MLB DFS industry.

Tyler O’Neill is the middle of a powerful trio of hitters atop this lineup. O’Neill had a 52.2% hard-hit rate and an elite 17.9% barrel rate in his breakout 2021, hitting 34 home runs and adding 15 stolen bases. The outfielder created runs 45% better than average and had a mammoth .274 ISO last year, but he has scuffled to just a .079 ISO with one home run and a .171/.247/.250 triple slash while falling to 49% below league average for run creation. The early struggles are a minor blip, this is a premium bat in any situation. O’Neill is too cheap at $3,000 on FanDuel but he is pulling just a 4% ownership share. His $4,300 salary is too low on DraftKings as well, but the public is not getting to him aggressively with just a 2.5% projection.

Nolan Arenado has been one of baseball’s best early this season. The star third baseman has hit six home runs and racked up a .321 ISO over his first 88 plate appearances of 2022. He is slashing a lethal .359/.432/.679 and is among the league leaders creating runs 120% better than average thus far. Arenado has been one of baseball’s best overall hitters for a long time, despite any thoughts about his former home park, Coors Field, impacting his production. Arenado costs $5,500 on DraftKings and just $3,800 on FanDuel, it is ridiculous that his ownership is below 1% on both sites in this matchup.

Future first-ballot Hall of Famer Albert Pujols should probably have never left St. Louis in the first place, a sentiment with which the slugger and Cardinals fans would all likely agree. In his return home for his age-42 season, Pujols is a part-time designated hitter who can be seen enjoying chats with old friends Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in the dugout throughout the game. Pujols has been more than a good chemistry addition this year however, in his limited 37 plate appearance sample he is slashing .265/.324/.471 with two home runs and an encouraging .206 ISO while striking out just 18.9% of the time. The mileage may be high but this old beater can still reach the summit on the right night, for $3,700 on DraftKings and particularly at just $2,200 on FanDuel, Pujols has his uses.

Harrison Bader costs $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel and he will be virtually unowned, which is true for everyone at the back of this lineup. Bader checks in with a .101 ISO and just one home run in his 78 plate appearances, but he has stolen six bases and can be a useful correlation piece when he gets on base. Bader has struck out at a 19.2% clip. He should put the ball in play and could contribute to fantasy scoring in a Cardinals stack.

Where catchers are required, Yadier Molina can be deployed with limited expectations. Even then, there are probably better options, Molina is here for his ability behind the plate, not at it.

Veteran Paul DeJong is essentially serving as a placeholder until the organization decides to call up scorching Nolan Gorman who has 11 home runs in just 86 triple-A plate appearances already this season (a .449 ISO). While DeJong remains in this lineup, he is a playable option at low cost in a premium position, but there are frequently better shortstops available. DeJong hit 19 home runs with a .194 ISO in 402 plate appearances last season, but he slashed just .197/.284/.390 and was ultimately a liability more than an asset. This season, the righty shortstop is slashing .138/.231/.241 with a .103 ISO and one home run in his 65 plate appearances, there are better bets for quality in a same-handed matchup.

Switch-hitting Dylan Carlson wraps this lineup around from the nine-spot. Carlson is slashing just .181/.231/.253 with a .072 ISO and no home runs over his first 91 plate appearances this season, but he hit 18 home runs in 619 opportunities last year while slashing .266/.343/.437. The on-base skills need to come around for Carlson to approach run creation on par with last year’s 13% above average mark, so far in 2022 he is creating runs 54% below average, but there is quality available for a lost cost and no popularity with a functional wraparound quality to the top of this lineup.

Home Run Prediction Today: Jared Walsh — Los Angeles Angels


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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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