The loaded Tuesday slate takes a different shape from site to site, with FanDuel foregoing the shortened double-header games in the evening for a 13-game slate, while DraftKings contests will feature all 15 games. With the two games in question not presenting much in the way of pitching among the four options (Aaron Ashby, Alec Mills, Ross Stripling and Jose Suarez are the scheduled starters in the second games of the doubleheaders) and shortened opportunities for stacking offense, there is not a pressing need to focus on the oddball games. The 13 games that appear on both sites include an interesting pitching board that is heavy on second and third starters but light on top-end talent. Several young pitchers and veterans performing at various levels are priced and matched up in compelling spots. With such a wide range of potential outcomes, it makes sense to spread out tournament ownership shares. The hitting slate looks ripe with MLB DFS plays despite there being only one or two standout home run spots.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 6.40
Atlanta Braves: Jorge Soler — 8.19
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 11.43
Boston Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez — 7.77
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 20.37
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 10.98
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 8.59
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 11.59
Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 8.91
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 8.23
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 11.03
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 9.77
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 8.86
Minnesota Twins: Mitch Garver — 6.36
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 8.52
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 8.36
Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 11.64
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 11.30
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.27
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 14.41
San Francisco Giants: Kris Bryant — 6.32
Seattle Mariners: Ty France — 7.10
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 2.91
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 8.12
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 7.95
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 8.33
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The short Monday slate had more available aces in good spots than the giant Tuesday contest. In terms of talent, the board is topped by Max Scherzer who will lead the Dodgers against the Phillies, who will return fire with Aaron Nola, another of the slate’s most talented arms, who will be in a more difficult matchup. Scherzer and Nola are joined near the top of the projections by a few names that may surprise those who have not paid close attention through the season. Logan Gilbert is in an excellent matchup against Texas, while Oakland’s Sean Manaea is drawing quality marks in a fairly easy start against Cleveland. Alex Wood draws a lousy Diamondbacks team that he should have little difficulty dispatching, and Eduardo Rodriguez will take his underrated talents to the mound in a home start against the Rays and Luis Patino. The Mets will have Carlos Carrasco in a great spot against the depleted Nationals, but his innings are in question as they gradually build him up to form; he has thrown four and 4.1 innings in his two starts back from the injured list but pitched well in both. Several other starters are at least reasonable options, particularly where two are required. The Top Pitchers Tool is a major asset for a slate of this nature.
With Scherzer and Nola dueling for the same win bonus, both starters take a minor ding in overall projection and upside. They are each facing quality lineups, though Scherzer is in the better situation. The Phillies’ active roster has a 3.58% home run rate and a .164 collective ISO that are both at the middle of the league against right-handed pitching, and they have created runs eight percent worse than average in the split. Philadelphia is good at avoiding strikeouts, coming into tonight with a 22.9% rate that is eighth best against righties, but Scherzer can carve up the best of lineups, which pushes him ahead of his opponent. He has thrown 118 innings in 20 starts, striking out 34.5% of hitters and compiling a 3.46 xFIP with a 0.89 WHIP and a 16% swinging strike rate. Scherzer allows premium contact with an 11.1% barrel rate, but that comes with merely 34.5% hard hits, leveling things somewhat. He can give up the occasional long ball, but they rarely do much damage given the ability to keep runners off the bases. On the other side of the contest, Nola has a 28.7% strikeout rate over 126.1 innings in 22 starts this season, pitching to a 3.48 xFIP and a 12.8% induced swinging strike rate. He has allowed a 7.3% barrel rate and 36.5% hard hits but will be facing a more deadly lineup. The Dodgers’ active roster is above average across the board, starting the day with a .178 collective ISO and a 4.08% home run rate while creating runs 10% ahead of the average against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles also limits strikeouts in the split. With both opposing offenses carrying potential to do a bit of damage while also limiting strikeouts, Scherzer and Nola are not as far ahead of the field as they might otherwise be with different opponents. They both make for strong plays, though Scherzer is pulling far more ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, while also carrying a heavier price tag.
Manaea is one of the more interesting pieces on the board, seemingly going under-owned on both sites. He has been largely excellent through the 2021 campaign. He has thrown 127 innings in 22 starts, posting a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate. Manaea has a 3.38 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 12.6% swinging strike , 29.6% CSW and a 7.4% barrel rate. The contact metrics trend toward the possibility of power given the barrel rate and a 39.9% hard-hit rate with a 13-degree average launch angle, but Manaea has done a fairly good job limiting opposing power this season. The opposing Cleveland team has a 23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, the 16th-ranked team in the category. Cleveland is well below average in our other main offensive metrics for lineups, they have just a 2.95% home run rate and a .139 collective ISO against southpaws this season, and the team has created runs 18% worse than average by collective WRC+ in the split. Manaea has a clear path to a slate-relevant score but is drawing single-digit ownership for his inflated price tag. Manaea is not someone the public expects to cost $10,000 on both sites, which creates an excellent opportunity for GPP play.
The price tag on Gilbert does not seem to be doing much to curb his public popularity on either site. He costs $8,900 and is one of the most popular arms on FanDuel, while his $9,600 cost on DraftKings still has him projected for nearly 40% ownership. Gilbert has been sharp all season, racking up a 28.2% strikeout rate in his 67.1 innings and 14 starts. He has walked 6.4% of hitters and has a 3.87 xFIP with a 1.10 WHIP. He induces a 13.2% swinging strike rate, though his 26.7% CSW is lower than desired. Gilbert has yielded premium contact with regularity, coming into the night with a 7.9% barrel rate and a 45.8% hard hit percentage and 90.7 mph average exit velocity. Combined with a 17.5-degree average launch angle, there is some concern over home run upside for opponents, though Gilbert has yielded just seven this season for a 0.94 HR/9 mark. The opposing Rangers are a below average offense. Texas’ active roster has a 3.05% home run rate and a .140 collective ISO against righties this season, striking out 23.9% of the time and creating runs 22% behind the curve. Gilbert is priced fairly but will be shockingly popular on a gigantic slate. As one of the most negatively leveraged plays on the pitching slate, an undercut may be in order.
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Chicago White Sox
The loaded White Sox are at the peak of the Top Stacks Tool on both sites once again. Chicago has gotten healthy in recent weeks and their deadly lineup is loaded with power, hitting and on-base acumen, and speed. Chicago has a few key hitters who are highly priced on the DraftKings slate, but by and large they are affordable. On FanDuel the White Sox average salary is hilariously below the $3,000 mark, and no hitter is priced above the $3,700 that Abreu commands. Chicago will be explosively popular on the blue site, but there is a bit of room to work with them on DraftKings where many individual ownership projections are far lower. In addition to the two expensive stars, key bats include: Cesar Hernandez, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn, while additions like Brian Goodwin, Adam Engel, Zack Collins and Leury Garcia can round out a lineup nicely.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are once again drawing significant popularity and find themselves near the top of stack rankings. Detroit is in a hitter’s haven in Baltimore and taking on a gas can of a starter in Keegan Akin. He comes into tonight with a measly 19.7% strikeout rate and an ugly 8.4% walk rate, while allowing a 10.5% barrel rate and a gargantuan 44.4% hard-hit rate. Akin is extremely targetable for both power and sequential hitting, most teams would have little difficulty creating runs against him. The Tigers are not a good baseball team, but they have done well creating runs against lefties this year. However, Detroit has been below average in other metrics. They have a .161 collective ISO against lefties that ranks 20th out of baseball’s 30 teams, their 3.60% home run rate ranks 18th and the ugly 25.4% strikeout rate is fourth from the bottom. While it is very likely that the Tigers generate some offense in this situation, they are already negatively leveraged on both sites and are only likely to get more popular given the industry-wide discussion and their highly affordable pricing. Detroit is at a more reasonable ownership mark on DraftKings, and there are low-owned individual hitters in the lineup on both sites, but there is also a notable lack of overall quality in those same individuals.
St. Louis Cardinals
A matchup against Steven Brault and the Pirates’ bullpen has the Cardinals offense looming large over the slate, though the public seems to not be taking much note. St. Louis stacks are coming up with strong positive leverage marks on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the mid-afternoon and are likely to remain in a highly playable range into lock. Brault is a left-handed starter who has made just one appearance this season, throwing four innings after returning from a season-long back injury just last week. Brault is a soft-tossing contact pitcher with limited stuff. He had a 4.85 xFIP underneath a 3.38 ERA in 42.2 innings last season and was at a 5.04 xFIP with a 5.16 ERA in 113.1 innings the season prior. Brault is a below average pitcher for strikeouts, his career rate stands at just 19% over 319.2 innings dating back to 2016. He has just a .99 HR/9 mark and several seasons limiting hard hits to below 35%, but he is targetable overall and will likely only be in the game for four innings before handing the game off to the team’s low-end bullpen. The Cardinals are under-owned for the general upside of this spot.
Tommy Edman slots into second base and the outfield on the FanDuel slate for $2,900. On DraftKings, Edman is just a second baseman but remains very affordable at $3,200. He is slashing .252/.299/.370 on the season with six home runs and 19 stolen bases, though he has been creating runs 16% behind the average by WRC+ and could stand to get on base more often ahead of the sluggers behind him.
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Paul Goldschmidt is slashing .271/.336/.447 with a .176 ISO and 18 home runs over 467 plate appearances, a down year for the former All-Star by any measure. Goldschmidt is still dangerous at the plate, however. He has a whopping 52.6% hard-hit rate and an 11.7% barrel rate and is priced down for the spot. Despite the decline, Goldschmidt has still created runs 14% better than average by WRC+ and he is in a strong spot at an affordable cost on FanDuel. He is a less comfortable click at $5,100 on the DraftKings slate, but his ownership on the site falls below 5%.
Nolan Arenado has slipped to a .263/.319/.500 triple slash, which is more of a slide than many anticipated. For his career, Arenado is a .290/.347/.537 hitter. He has still hit for power and is well above average in run creation, coming in with a .237 ISO and a WRC+ 18% ahead of the curve. Despite not being the Arenado of old, he is deserving of attention at single-digit ownership on both sites.
Yadier Molina does not strike out much, coming in with just a 16.2% rate. Molina puts the ball in play with regularity, his walk rate is just 6.1% and he is slashing .253/.300/.378 with a .125 ISO for the season. He has hit eight home runs in his 327 plate appearances and is creating runs 15% behind the average. He should be treated primarily as an offensive afterthought for MLB DFS, filling out the catcher position with unremarkable quality and a relatively low cost where necessary.
Harrison Bader has just a 17.1% strikeout rate on the season, though he walks slightly more than Molina at 8.8%. Bader has hit nine home runs in 204 plate appearances this season and is slashing .275/.343/.473 with a .198 ISO while creating runs 16% better than average. Bader has flashed power and stolen base upside in his limited opportunities in the past. In 2019 he made 406 plate appearances, hitting 12 home runs and stealing 11 bases. This season he has swiped six bags in the somewhat small sample, adding to his appeal for MLB DFS purposes. Bader will also be more popular on DraftKings.
Paul DeJong has hit 14 home runs in just 302 plate appearances this season, but he is struggling with the hit tool. DeJong comes in slashing .198/.288/.377 with a .179 ISO. He has created runs 15% behind the average and is in play primarily for his home run upside at low cost and ownership. DeJong has made 664 plate appearances in 2019, hitting 30 home runs and slashing .233/.318/.444 with a .211 ISO. DeJong is worthy of shares at the back end of mid-lineup stacks.
HR Call: Pete Alonso — New York Mets
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