The Midsummer Classic is here, and there are many directions to look in MLB DFS lineup combinations on both DraftKings and FanDuel and GPP play can go anywhere given the wildly unpredictable nature of the MLB All-Star Game. Below are the top MLB DFS picks to make for the 2021 All-Star Game.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
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Home Run Ratings
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Note: Home run ratings are presented slightly differently today, instead of covering teams these are the individual ratings for the starting lineups. Ratings were created using three plate appearances per hitter and with the starting pitcher for each team, with each pitcher seeing less than two innings these values will quickly change. With just three plate appearances, ratings are landing below the normal scale.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
American League
Shohei Ohtani — 8.09
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 7.05
Xander Bogaerts — 4.65
Aaron Judge — 6.50
Rafael Devers — 5.58
Marcus Semien — 3.88
Salvador Perez — 4.29
Teoscar Hernandez — 4.09
Cedric Mullins — 2.29
National League
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 4.86
Max Muncy — 3.49
Nolan Arenado — 3.19
Freddie Freeman — 3.13
Nick Castellanos — 2.73
Jesse Winker — 2.56
JT Realmuto — 1.78
Bryan Reynolds — 1.62
Adam Frazier — 0.79
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Power Index — Pitching
There is an even greater change of pace in the Power Index today. With most pitchers getting an inning or less in this format in years past, it is difficult to nail down how much a pitcher, even a starter, will matter for MLB DFS purposes. In an effort to capture a useful projection of potential upside, I gave each pitcher on both rosters a two-inning appearance manually and compiled the strikeout and fantasy point upside. These results are sorted by strikeout upside and my projection is deliberately removed to avoid confusion, but the values are reflected in the conditional formatting.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The All-Star pitching slate is relevant for DraftKings players, who can roster pitchers alongside hitters for value, while FanDuel players will either skip this section or read it simply for matchups purposes, as they can only roster hitters. The format in All-Star contests has been frustrating for rostering pitchers, typically even a starter will only see an inning. EMac did a great job breaking down the recent track record, and ultimately rostering pitchers is a crapshoot.
Starters
Shohei Ohtani will start things out for the American League, but he is only available as a hitter for MLB DFS purposes. He has a 30.7% strikeout rate and a 3.65 xFIP, inducing 14% swinging strikes. Ohtani does allow premium contact when batters are able to get there, yielding a 6.5% barrel rate, a 42.6% hard-hit rate and an 89.7 mph average exit velocity to opposing hitters, so there is some upside for bats early in the game, if they manage to make contact with his elite stuff, but Ohtani is likely to put up a clean inning with a couple strikeouts.
Max Scherzer starts for the National League and has a glimmering 3.29 xFIP and a 0.88 WHIP on the season with a 35.5% strikeout rate. He induces a 16.8% swinging strike rate and has compiled a 32.3% CSW for the season. He has allowed a fair number of well-struck fly balls with a 21-degree average launch angle and a 10.3% barrel rate, but hitters struggle to get premium power against him in spite of those marks; Scherzer has a 34.1% hard-hit rate and an 89 mph average exit velocity that are both very good. He has upside at his $7,500 price tag on the DraftKings slate.
American League
Gerrit Cole threw a complete game shutout allowing just three hits and striking out 12. Unfortunately, this terrific outing took Cole off the board for the All-Star Game.
Lance Lynn appears likely to see work, having last pitched on July 7. He has a strong 3.92 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP and a 28.5% strikeout rate over his 90.2 innings in 16 starts. Lynn induces a 12.7% swinging strike rate but has just a 26.5% CSW and his walks have crept up to 8.4%. He allows a 7.8% barrel rate with an 18.2-degree average launch angle and a 37.7% hard-hit rate. Lynn has largely gotten through any troubles, though he is better in “baseball card” stats like his 1.99 ERA. He is a reliable bet for a strikeout or two in an inning of work, if he sees a few additional hitters there could be additional upside.
Carlos Rodon has an equal chance of seeing more than an inning depending on the game-flow. Rodon’s last start came on July 6. He has a 2.94 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP while inducing 15.4% swinging strikes. At $7,200 on the DraftKings slate, Rodon provides one of the higher-upside points for potential strikeouts, depending how many hitters he sees.
Chris Bassitt has a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 3.97 xFIP with a 1.05 WHIP. He avoids trouble by limiting hard hits to just 32.8% and allows only an 87.5 mph average exit velocity. Bassitt is more a safe pick than he is a major upside play for strikeouts, particularly against the hitters he will face in a game like this, for the money it is probably better to roster a hitter than his $6,600 price tag, particularly when he pitched just two days ago and is unlikely to see more than a few hitters.
Kyle Gibson also pitched two days ago and is another low-strikeout option. Gibson has just a 21.7% strikeout rate across his 102 innings this season and is not among the league’s elite pitchers. The same can be said for Nathan Eovaldi, who has a mere 22.8% strikeout rate, though he has been better inducing swing and miss with a 12.1% swinging strike rate and he is reasonably good at limiting premium contact. Neither of these pitchers makes a strong MLB DFS option. Yusei Kikuchi has a 25% strikeout rate and has not pitched since July 7, so he should be fresh for at least a full inning of work.
Several bullpen arms offer potential upside for their low cost. Liam Hendriks has a 41.4% strikeout rate, a microscopic 2.6% walk rate, an 18.7% swinging strike rate, a 2.32 xFIP and a 0.76 WHIP. Hendriks is one of the American League’s best closers and he would be in play for a clean two- or even three-strikeout inning. Aroldis Chapman has struggled somewhat of late, but he is still striking out 39.7% of hitters for the season with an excellent 16.6% swinging strike rate. Chapman has allowed an 17.9% barrel rate and a concerning 41.1% hard-hit rate for the year, but given the prices, Hendriks is the safer option of the two. Matt Barnes also lands at a $6,000 salary and the Red Sox closer has quietly been better than both of the previously mentioned closers. Barnes has completed 38 innings this season and he has torn through opposing hitters with a 44.1% strikeout rate. He has a 2.12 xFIP and a 0.89 WHIP
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Taijuan Walker has a 2.50 ERA with a 7-3 record, but there is utility for MLB DFS purposes. Walker has pitched to a 3.94 xFIP with a 1.03 WHIP and a 24.9% strikeout rate over his 90 innings in 16 starts. He is inducing a 9% swinging strike rate that could stand to see some improvement and he has a concerning 39.6% hard-hit rate but has largely stayed clean in his starts. Walker last pitched on July 9 and should have room for an inning tonight.
Walker Buehler last pitched just three days ago on July 10, so it seems unlikely that he will see more than an inning tonight. He has a 25.7% strikeout rate and just a 5.9% walk rate over his 114.1 excellent innings this season. He induces an 11.5% swinging strike rate and yields a 38.1% hard-hit rate. At the $7,800 price tag, however, it is difficult to justify getting to many shares of him.
Trevor Rogers stands out on the National League roster for his strikeout upside. He has completed 101.1 innings and has been striking out 30% of Major League hitters despite the lack of experience. Rogers is walking too many at 8.4%, but he induces a 14.9% swinging strike rate that is excellent and is well above average with a 31.2% CSW. He allows a mere 5.6% barrel rate with a 36.7% hard-hit rate and an 87.7 mph average exit velocity, giving him both safety and upside for the $6,600 investment on DraftKings.
At $7,200 Zack Wheeler is more difficult to slot in despite better production than the Marlins rookie above. Wheeler has a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate with a stellar 2.71 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP on the season. He allows just a 4.4% barrel rate and a puny 29.1% hard-hit rate, as well as just an 84.7 mph average exit velocity. Wheeler provides significant depth in most starts and has not pitched since July 7.
Freddy Peralta was rightly named to appear in the game as a replacement, though he pitched on July 10 and is unlikely to see more than an inning. He has a fantastic 35.1% strikeout rate on the season, but he also walks 11.4% of hitters and allows a 22.9-degree average launch angle that could play exceedingly well at Coors Field if he misses a spot. Peralta has three-strikeout upside, but he is also not entirely safe and will see just a few hitters.
Corbin Burnes slots in at $7,200 on the DraftKings slate and has been every bit as good as Peralta. Burnes has a 37.1% strikeout rate and a 2.16 xFIP with a 0.91 WHIP and a 34.1% CSW over his 87.2 innings. He last pitched on July 7, so this would be around his regular day. Burnes could see a full inning or potentially a bit more given the full rest.
German Marquez costs $6,300 and will offset some of the park factors simply by virtue of familiarity with his home stadium. Marquez is another mid-range strikeout option for the National League, coming in at a 25% rate over his 112.1 innings, though he induces an excellent 13.2% swinging strike rate and allows a mere 3.4% barrel rate. Marquez could provide sneaky upside given the cost and relative safety, though he most recently appeared on July 10.
The National League is shorter on relievers, though the options they brought are terrific. Josh Hader has a 45.7% strikeout rate over 36.1 innings this season. He has a 2.27 xFIP and a 0.80 WHIP, the latter coming in spite of a 9.4% walk rate. Hader induces a 21% swinging strike rate that is rivaled by Jacob deGrom and few others. Hader has not worked more than an inning this season, but he has done so regularly in the past, in the right situation he could be called upon to see more than three hitters. Alex Reyes has a 30.7% strikeout rate over 41.1 innings, inducing a 13.2% swinging strike rate and avoiding premium contact with just a 4.4% barrel rate and a 34.4% hard-hit rate. He has upside, though his outing will likely be short if he sees time at all. Craig Kimbrel has a 46.2% strikeout rate with a 1.93 xFIP and a 0.66 WHIP. He is inducing an 18.9% swinging strike rate and a fantastic 38.6% CSW. He is a great option to lock down a late-game inning with a pair of strikeouts or more.
At the Dish
American League
Ohtani leads off and will be surprising no one as the most popular option on the slate on both sites. He will no doubt be one of the most rostered options in the Captain and MVP spots on respective sites. Ohtani leads the league with 33 home runs in his 343 plate appearances. He is slashing .279/.364/.698 for the season with an absurd .419 ISO, creating runs 80% better than average by WRC+. He even adds 12 stolen bases to his ridiculous production. Ohtani seems a good bet to see three plate appearances given the spot in the batting order and the fact that the league changed the rules of the game to allow him to see addition turns at the plate in this contest.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit 28 home runs, chasing Ohtani across the first half, though the power difference is, as wild as it may sound, quite stark. Guerrero has a .326 ISO that would be a titanic mark compared to any other hitter in the league. There are no better two-man stacks for MLB DFS purposes until Mike Trout returns to the Angels lineup.
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Aaron Judge has hit 21 home runs and owns a .244 ISO while creating runs 47% better than average for the season, slashing .282/.375/.526. Judge sits in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate at 57%, his 19.7% barrel rate is in the 98th percentile, and he bounces back to the 100th percentile with his 95.8 mph average exit velocity. Judge has a .639 expected slugging percentage that is one of baseball’s very best.
Rafael Devers led the league in doubles two years ago, and this season he has hit 22 home runs in his 369 plate appearances. He is slashing .282/.350/.564 with a .282 ISO and is creating runs 40% better than average. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez is the only other true third baseman on the American League roster, suggesting the two could split the game evenly, with any need for emergency replacement coming from one of the additional shortstops shifting positions.
Marcus Semien is inexpensive at $6,000 on the FanDuel slate but he is a pricier play on DraftKings where he comes in with an $11,400 Captain salary. Semien could be a sneaky option for quality from the No. 6 spot in the lineup, but the batting order position and his fielding spot in the infield may put the plate appearances in question. The American League roster has Whit Merrifield on the bench, though he could easily fill in at third or in the outfield as well. Semien also has the ability to slide over to shortstop or pick up at third base depending on the situation, so it seems like three plate appearances are in order. He is slashing .277/.345/.528 with 22 home runs and a .251 ISO this season.
Salvador Perez is slashing .275/.300/.501 with 21 home runs this year. The roster includes just one additional catcher, Mike Zunino, so Perez seems a safe bet for three plate appearances. Zunino’s ridiculous power upside is also in play off the bench, though the expectation has to be for slightly fewer plate appearances.
Teoscar Hernandez costs $6,500 on FanDuel and has a $6,900 Captain price on DraftKings, which is a clear discount. Hernandez has hit 11 home runs in his 293 plate appearances, adding six stolen bases for additional MLB DFS quality. He is slashing .297/.341/.473 with a .176 ISO and is creating runs 20% better than average. While he lacks the titanic power upside of some of his peers, Hernandez is in play as a cheap low-owned starter on both sites.
Cedric Mullins seems a very inexpensive play at $4,000 on FanDuel. He is slashing .314/.380/.541 with a .228 ISO, 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases, creating runs 51% better than average. The position at the bottom of the lineup is not ideal, but Mullins makes for a fantastic wraparound option and is in play for correlation with the amazing duo atop this lineup, making him extremely interesting at this price point.
The American League bench is loaded with viable options who will see playing time. Matt Olson is one of the best power hitters in the game and is perhaps surpassed in power upside only by Zunino, though the latter does not make nearly enough contact to be a true threat. Merrifield, Bo Bichette, Tim Anderson and Joey Wendle are viable options in the infield, though the first three names are better on-paper players than the final one on the list. Jose Ramirez, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia, J.D. Martinez and Nelson Cruz could comprise a solid core for a third team to enter into this game. Those hitters are 14th, third, seventh, 15th and 16th on the American League home run leaderboard this season.
National League
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .286/.364/.656 triple-slash, 28 home runs and a .370 ISO while stealing 20 bases and creating runs 68% better than average for the season. Tatis is very likely to be exceedingly popular on this slate despite the hefty price tag. He is one of the National League’s better options for a home run and should see three plate appearances given the star status and the position in the batting order.
FanDuel clearly missed the mark when pricing Max Muncy for this slate. He is hitting second in the lineup, so the $4,000 price on the blue site is wildly unjustifiable. He is cheap as an $8,700 Captain play on DraftKings as well. Muncy has hit 19 home runs this season and is slashing .270/.414/.559 while creating runs 65% better than average.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Nolan Arenado is slashing .265/.319/.500 with 17 home runs and a .235 ISO for the season, though those marks are somewhat below expectation of his typical excellence. Arenado is expensive at $7,500 on FanDuel and $9,900 as a Captain on DraftKings, but he provides at least stability and certainly upside for production in the lineup. His viability will be dictated by late-afternoon ownership projections. If he is undervalued by the field, he makes a solid upside play for GPPs on both sites.
Freddie Freeman is expensive in the cleanup spot to start the game. He has 19 home runs and is slashing .274/.381/.489 with a .216 ISO and creating runs 32% better than average. Freeman has made 388 plate appearances this season and sits in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 92nd in average exit velocity and the 83rd in barrel rate. Interestingly, the National League roster does not include another true first baseman, though several players could see a turn at the position, including Eduardo Escobar, Justin Turner, Jake Cronenworth, Kris Bryant or Chris Taylor.
Nick Castellanos is slashing .331/.384/.585 with a .254 ISO and 18 home runs, leading the Reds excellent offense. He will likely be popular on both sites considering a discount from some of the other premium bats. Castellanos deserves attention and should be rostered across the industry.
Jesse Winker slots into the starting lineup behind Castellanos in this one, slashing .301/.382/.539 with 19 home runs and a .238 ISO. Winker should see two opportunities at the plate, whether he gets a third seems likely to decide his overall value on the night, there are numerous players on the National League roster to cycle through the corner outfield spots.
J.T. Realmuto is slashing .268/.370/.438 with eight home runs in his 276 plate appearances, creating runs 22% better than average. Realmuto should see several turns, with just Omar Narvaez on the bench as a backup. Narvaez has eight home runs and is slashing .300/.396/.469 while creating runs 37% better than average. A direct timeshare seems likely here.
Bryan Reynolds has hit 16 home runs and three stolen bases, posting a .217 ISO and 146 WRC+. He is somehow priced at just $4,000 on the FanDuel slate and $6,000 as a Captain on DraftKings, though he may be limited to just two plate appearances given the low profile and late spot in the lineup. Adam Frazier costs $5,500 and $7,200 and is earning it by slashing .330/.397/.463 with four home runs and five stolen bases on the season. Frazier is here for the ability to get on base with his eye and reliable hit tool. Of the pair of Pirates, Reynolds seems like the better play for less money across sites given the ability to put up a big score without help from teammates.
The loaded National League bench includes Ozzie Albies and Brandon Crawford. The list of potential backups for Freeman included several superstars that should not be ignored. Bryant will see time at third base or in the outfield if not at first, and he is in the midst of a resurgent season. Manny Machado should certainly not be skipped for lack of starting, while Trea Turner provides major speed and power upside off the bench. Juan Soto has power upside but may be sidelined for other options given public exposure and a desire to give the league’s stars equal time in the spotlight. If he does see opportunity, Soto is pulling a large mark in the home run model.
HR Call: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — American League
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