The short six-game Monday slate was just reduced to five with the postponement of the Padres – Rockies game on a snowy May 10 in Colorado. Taking the top game for offense off the board is going to throw the entire slate into flux as MLB DFS players scramble for new bats to roster. This should leave an already thin pitching slate taxed in interesting ways, creating some interesting angles from which to attack the slate. Tracking the day’s best pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for Monday.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 5.89
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 7.23
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 12.12
Cincinnati Reds: Nicholas Castellanos — 12.35
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 15.70
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 6.19
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 11.27
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.05
San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria — 8.13
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 7.86
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Today’s slate of MLB DFS pitching options is totally lacking in big names and would likely be considered ugly on the surface. Given the arms that are going and the pricing they have been assigned, it actually creates an interesting setup for tonight’s GPP action. Despite the lack of name recognition, several pitchers on the slate are out to excellent starts for the season, some more surprisingly than others. Alex Wood is undergoing an unexpected renaissance in his first year in San Francisco, while more likely upside arm Tyler Mahle has truly hit his stride this season, and veteran Kyle Gibson has delivered steady reliability for the Rangers.
Wood is taking on a Rangers team that sits exactly in the middle of the league with a 24.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and has hit for just a .147 ISO while creating runs 2% worse than average in the split this season, though they are tied for second in baseball with 18 home runs against southpaws. Wood has been sharp to start the season, putting up a 2.81 xFIP and a 0.78 WHIP over his first 23 innings while striking out 25.6% of hitters. He has boosted his swinging strike rate from 10.8 in 2019 to 12.6 last year and 13.1% this season, while his called strike rate is sitting at 20.2%. Wood has completely eliminated his curveball and has taken his slider from a pitch that he did not throw prior to last season, to 20% usage last year and 36% usage this season. Wood gets almost all of his swing and miss and his strikeouts on the slider. He is inducing a 93rd-percentile chase rate and allowing just a .272 xSLG on the pitch while striking out 18 of the 22 hitters he has fanned this year with the pitch. If the book catches up to Wood quickly, there could be regression in the strikeout rate and advancement in the walk rate as hitters lay off the slider, but for right now this appears to be a spot that favors the pitcher.
Mahle has quietly made gigantic strides the past few seasons and is now pitching like one of the top arms in the game. Mahle has an elite 32.8% strikeout rate on the season, improving upon the 29.9% he posted in 47 innings last season and way up from the 23.2% he had in 129 innings in 2019. Mahle is one of the league’s best case studies for the difference improvements in spin rate can make. In 2019, Mahle threw his four-seam fastball at 93.3 mph with 2,161 rpms of spin. Last season that jumped to 93.9 mph and 2,389 rpm of spin and the whiff rate on the pitch spiked. Mahle is throwing the same pitch at an average velocity of 94.5 mph this season, with an absurd 2,489 rpm of spin. The pitch creates a rising effect on the fastball. While the ball does not actually climb as it approaches the batter, it creates the illusion of a rise, which is devastating to hitters when Mahle unleashes his slider or split-finger fastball, both of which come in at 87 mph and induce heavy swing and miss despite just a 40th-percentile chase rate. He is facing a Pirates team that has one discernible skillset with the bat, limiting strikeouts against right-handed pitching. The Pirates are tied for second in baseball with just a 21.0% strikeout rate in the split, though they create runs 11% worse than average and have little power. This should still be a strong spot for Mahle. He ranks well on the Top Pitchers Tool on both sites, though he will be a popular play.
The opposing pitchers in both of these games are interesting as well. Facing Wood, Kyle Gibson is actually the most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel slate at $9,000, though he lands at just $8,600 on the DraftKings slate, which ranks him fourth by salary. Gibson has made seven starts this season, putting up just a 21.3% strikeout rate that aligns with his career history; in 2020 he had a 19.3% rate in 67 innings and he was at 22.7% in 160 2019 innings. He has gotten through with a 3.87 xFIP and a 1.04 WHIP while walking 7.9% of hitters this season. He will be facing a Giants team that has been good over a sample to 2019 in limiting strikeouts against righties but has struggled terribly at doing so this season. The Giants active roster surprisingly sits 29th out of 30 teams with a 28.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. If that trend continues, Gibson is in a good spot. But given the longer sample’s results it might be trickier than it seems. Gibson projects in the middle of the weak pack in the pitching model. Meanwhile, Pirates righty Mitch Keller will be dueling with Mahle. Keller has a 21.2% strikeout rate and an ugly 13.3% walk rate this year, which is in line with his ongoing struggles with control. Keller has thrown 24 innings over his six starts, putting up a 5.00 xFIP and a 1.68 WHIP. Keller is another pitcher with a dynamic heavy-spin arsenal, but he has yet to harness it with any semblance of reliability. This season he sits in just the 32nd percentile in strikeout rate and 37th percentile in chase rate while yielding a 6th-percentile hard-hit rate — a bad combination against a powerful Reds team that has a .192 collective ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has hammered 37 home runs in the split already. The Reds roster strikes out around the league average in the split this year, with a 24.5% rate. Keller could post a surprising game for strikeouts, but the higher probability is that these Reds bats pound him for some production.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins make a rare appearances near the top of the Top Stacks Tool on both sites today. Miami is taking on Luke Weaver in Arizona in what looks to be a good spot for power and sneaky upside. Weaver has a 4.31 xFIP and a 1.38 WHIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate over the first 29 innings of his season, but he was a targetable pitcher over the past two years. Last season, Weaver yielded a 5.07 xFIP and a bumpy 1.56 WHIP with a 1.73 HR/9 (10 in 52.0 innings). This season, Weaver has allowed six home runs in his 29.2 inning sample. He sits in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 8th percentile in average exit velocity allowed while striking out a below-average number of hitters. The Marlins power bats could go off here and they are under-owned on both sites.
Miguel Rojas slots in as a cheap shortstop off the top of the board and will bring a .286/.370/.455 slash to the plate to start the day. Rojas has hit two home runs and stolen three bases in his 127 plate appearances so far, a year after hitting four home runs and stealing five bags in 143 tries in the short 2020 season. Rojas is creating runs at a pace 34% better than average and should not be ignored despite a lack of name recognition as the Marlins leadoff man.
Jesus Aguilar wields a thunderous bat that can get to the right pitchers in the right matchups and is not as platoon-dependent as he might be perceived. Aguilar has a career .204 ISO against left-handed pitching and a .214 against same-handed pitchers. He does strike out more frequently and walk less in the split, with a .256/.329/.470 triple slash as compared to .268/.356/.472 against southpaws. Those are negligible differences. This is a good spot for the hitter and he is going well under-owned.
Lefty Corey Dickerson, on the other hand, has been highly splits-dependent through his career. Dickerson has pounded right-handed pitching for a .231 career ISO, creating runs 24% better than average in the split while dropping to .143 and a 10% below average mark against lefties. Against righties, Dickerson strikes out just 19.2% of the time. He makes for a good option in this matchup but he is one of the Marlins hitters that the public is not behind the curve on, based on ownership projections. Dickerson has just one home run on the season but is out to a good .319/.402/.436 start while creating runs 41% better than average. Even at heavy ownership, he should not be excluded from many Marlins stacks.
Adam Duvall has been one of the league’s top power bats over the past few seasons when he is going right. Duvall hit 16 home runs in a strong 2020 season for the Braves, putting up a .295 ISO and creating runs 16% better than average. So far for the Marlins he has hit six home runs in just 117 plate appearances, though his ISO is at “only” .216 and his run creation has slipped to 13% below average. Duvall is still a terrific option for power upside. He leads the Marlins in the home run model and costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel where he will be the most popular play on this team. It makes sense to get to Duvall in Marlins stacks, though limiting exposure as a one-off based on that lack of leverage could be a smart move.
Third baseman Brian Anderson has made just 84 plate appearances in 2021, putting up a .218/.274/.333 with two home runs to start the season. Anderson hit 11 long balls in 229 tries last year and had 20 in a full season in 2019. He is a reliable mid-range bat for power, putting up better than a .200 ISO in both of those seasons, and he is around league-average in his hit tool and on-base skills. For a very fair $4,000 on DraftKings and only $2,500 on FanDuel, Anderson comes as something of a bargain, though the public will be on him assuming he hits fifth today.
Isan Diaz hits from the left side of the plate and brings a bit of unheralded power. This year Diaz has hit two home runs in 35 plate appearances. He has 60-grade raw power in traditional scouting, and he delivered 26 home runs in just 435 plate appearances in AAA in 2019. Diaz showed reliable power through his minor league ascension. This is a sneaky and inexpensive way into a Marlins stack if he is hitting sixth.
Outfielder Lewis Brinson is at .240/.255/.400 with a .160 ISO this season. He is creating runs 17% worse than average at the bottom of the Marlins lineup, but has hit two home runs in his 51 plate appearances. Brinson has largely disappointed since breaking into the league with strong prospect expectations, but there is dormant power in the bat if he manages to make contact. Brinson struggles with a 29.4% strikeout rate this season, and his .240/.255/.400 slash is, remarkably, is bolstered by a .303 BABIP. He is a good way to save money or offset ownership as needed at the bottom of a stack, but he is not a standout play.
Switch-hitting Sandy Leon will likely be behind the plate for the Fish today. He is at just .195/.214/.195 with a .000 ISO in 42 plate appearances this season. He is a career .216/.282/.323 hitter with a .107 ISO across 1,421 MLB plate appearances, with 27 home runs along the way. Leon is not an appealing bat and is more of a dead spot at the bottom of the Marlins lineup, though as an “on any given day…” play on catcher-required sites, he can be included in limited sets of stacks with this team.
HR Call: Mike Moustakas — Cincinnati Reds
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s MLB betting model.
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