MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 5/13/21

Thursday’s MLB DFS action has just six games and some challenging pitching decisions on the main slate this evening, making the approach to lineup constructions for GPP play fairly flexible across the industry. Without a clear-cut ace on the slate, and several of the better names either struggling or in bad spots, it makes sense to broaden the pitcher pool while simultaneously reaching for more hitters and a broad base of high-end stacks. This has the makings of a slate that will be won with bats. Loading up on full stacks of the best options looks like a better approach than getting over the field on one of the mid-range pitching options on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for Tuesday.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 7.01

Boston Red Sox: Michael Chavis — 7.66

Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 6.60

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 13.38

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 4.85

Houston Astros: Michael Brantley — 22.13

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 10.19

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 6.53

Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 6.84

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 8.37

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 10.42

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 12.82

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

draftkings fanduel mlb dfs picks daily fantasy baseball home run projections ownership GPPs

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.


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On the Hill

After a day with a pair of aces, today’s pitching slate looks more like a seven-deuce off-suit to get started. The daily fantasy baseball pitching options land in interesting ways on the Top Pitchers Tool, with the public skipping over one of the better options and most talented pitchers available in Miami’s Trevor Rogers. He joins Cristian Javier and Zach Plesac atop the board, but he will be the only option with positive leverage. Struggling Luis Castillo is pitching in Coors Field and is a major question mark given the talent history and low salary combination. Ultimately, there are two pitchers who are extremely targetable with bats. Mike Foltynewicz and Chi Chi Gonzalez simply should not be rostered for MLB DFS.

Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers has exploded into the league in a way that justifies the prospect hype. He threw 28 innings over seven starts last season, putting up a 30.0% strikeout rate and a 3.67 xFIP in his first action in the Show. This season he has a 33.1% strikeout rate with a 3.47 xFIP and a 1.08 WHIP. Rogers has a dynamite 31.6% CSW with a 16.5% swinging strike rate this season, excellent marks from a young hurler; he sits in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate and the 73rd percentile in chase rate. Opposing hitters have made reasonably good contact. Rogers sits in just the 19th percentile in hard hit rate allowed but the 80th percentile in barrels, suggesting that even when opponents hit the ball hard against him, they have not gotten the best part of the bat on the ball. This could be partly due to happenstance, but it is worth watching where contact numbers settle as the season rolls on. Rogers is facing a Diamondbacks lineup has been sneaky-good against left-handed pitching this season. Arizona sits first with a .245 ISO and is striking out at just a 19.6% rate in the split this season. They have created runs 35% better than average against southpaws, so Rogers is not completely safe. Still, on a shaky overall pitching slate, he looks like a strong option that the field is not getting to with enough frequency.

On the other end of the ownership spectrum, Houston’s Javier will be the most popular pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been sharp this season, posting a 4.19 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP over his first 31 innings in six starts. Javier has struck out 30.6% of hitters he faced so far, up from his 25.2% rate in 54 innings last season. Javier has allowed quality contact but managed to avoid significant trouble so far. He ranks in the 16th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 15th in average exit velocity allowed so far, while landing in just the 23rd percentile of barrel rate allowed. This is concerning contact in the longer term and it could be an issue against a Texas team that has created runs 7% better than average and hit for a league-average .158 ISO as a unit this year. The Rangers strike out at a ridiculous 28.1% rate against right-handed pitching this season, second worst in baseball. The spot is good for Javier, he just needs to remember to bring his lucky horseshoe to the mound one more time.

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Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks will be on the other side of the game from Rogers and he could make for an interesting consideration for some MLB DFS pitching shares. He has had an ineffective start to his season, striking out just 17.6% of hitters so far. He has a 24.1% CSW, down from 28.8% last season, as he is struggling with a reduction in both called and swinging strikes so far in 2021. Kelly was around league average last season. He struck out 23.2% of hitters and put up a 3.95 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP over his 31 innings, improving on the 20.3% and 4.51/1.31 from his rookie season the year before. Kelly works at an average of just 91 mph with his fastball and relies on a mix of a curveball, changeup and cutter, none of which have been particularly effective for him this season. Kelly sits in the 34th percentile of hard hit rate allowed, the 33rd percentile of average exit velocity allowed and 35th percentile of barrel rate allowed. He is in just the 14th percentile of strikeout rate and 32nd in chase rate. And still, a matchup against the Marlins has some appeal when the pitcher is under-owned, as Kelly is projected to be on both sites tonight. Miami sits fifth-worst in baseball with a 26.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have a .135 team ISO and create runs 11% worse than average in the split. The Marlins 23 home runs against righties rank them 24th in baseball this season. They are a weak offense and Kelly stands at least an outside chance of putting up a good start with a solid handful of strikeouts tonight.

Houston Astros

The Astros are exploding through the top of today’s home run model, with every hitter on the team carrying at least an above-average chance of going deep. The reason for this is the raging inferno that the opposing team is calling a starting pitcher tonight. The team facing Foltynewicz has been featured in this space every time he has pitched on a main slate this season. He has completely fallen apart over the past few seasons, yielding home runs with reckless abandon. Long balls can be a noisy statistic, but there is a significant enough sample at this point to say that Foltynewicz has a clear problem. In 2019, he allowed 23 home runs in 117.0 innings, a 1.77 rate that chased him out of his job in Atlanta. Last season he threw just 3.1 innings, giving up three home runs. This season, Foltynewicz has pitched 40.0 innings and has given up 11 home runs, yielding another two in his most recent start. Foltynewicz has just one game this season in which he failed to allow a home run. Meanwhile, he has given up more than one in four of his seven starts this season. The Astros will be justifiably popular tonight.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians stack ranks in the middle of the board on the top stacks tool, but the team is pulling respectable marks in the home run model as can be seen in the power index above, and they stand out for a lack of public popularity, fair pricing and a strong matchup. The opposing Mariners are starting one of their top pitching prospects, Logan Gilbert, in his Major League debut. Gilbert has had success in small samples through the Minors. In 2019 he threw 112.1 combined innings between high A and AA, striking out 29% of opposing hitters. Gilbert has a plus fastball with a standard slider, curve and changeup arsenal, with all three supporting pitches grading out well in traditional scouting but not peaking to plus ratings. Gilbert is recognized for his strong stuff and his poise and early command, but there is a strong chance he will be overmatched early, never having faced competition of this caliber. The Indians active roster has a 24.4% strikeout rate against righties this season, which ranks just 19th in baseball, but they have a sharp .189 team ISO in the split and pack plenty of power.

The Indians lineup kicks off with Cesar Hernandez, who offers inexpensive upside at low ownership on most slates. Hernandez is not the most powerful bat in the league, but he is capable with the bat and had demonstrated good on-base skills in the past. Hernandez is off to just a .209/.306/.349 start to his season, with three home runs to his credit already. Last year he had just three home runs in his full 261 plate appearances, but his triple-slash was stronger at .283/.355/.408. Hernandez hit 14 home runs and stole nine bases in his 667 plate appearances in 2019, indicative of his MLB DFS upside. There could be flashes of that in the right spots this year, so it makes sense to include Hernandez in Indians stacks.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/13/2021″ team=”indians”]

Amed Rosario was one of the primary pieces that came back from the Mets in the blockbuster trade for Francisco Lindor. Rosario had a strong second full season in 2019, going deep 15 times and stealing 19 bases with a .287/.323/.432 slash. He dropped to just .252/.272/.371 while creating runs 25% worse than average as the Mets struggled through last season. This year, Rosario is playing in the outfield and is off to a .211/.279/.347 start with a WRC+ 24% below average. He has two home runs and a stolen base but just a .137 ISO. If Rosario is hitting second, he could be a sneaky low-cost option for MLB DFS production.

Jose Ramirez is an established star who will likely be the most popular Indians bat this evening. Ramirez is currently in a four-way tie for second in the league with 10 home runs this season, and he has a .252/.338/.545 slash with a .293 ISO to start the year. He is expensive at $5,300 on DraftKings but costs juts $4,000 on FanDuel. He is someone who should not be skipped in Indians stacks, with all of the players around him at relatively low public exposure it should be easy enough to put lineups together that include him but still sit away from the field.

Outfielder Eddie Rosario is the second newly added player of this last name in the Cleveland outfield. Rosario has had a tough start in Cleveland so far, going just .220/.268/.356 over his first 128 plate appearances while posting just a .136 ISO and creating runs 27% worse than average. Rosario hit 13 home runs in a shortened 2020 that saw him make just 231 plate appearances. He had 32 in 590 chances in 2019, demonstrating the clear upside available for just $3,100 on the blue site and $3,300 on DraftKings. Rosario is too cheap for his talent and he should be included in constructions.

Franmil Reyes’ ridiculous power upside sits in the sixth spot in the lineup. Reyes has eight home runs already this season and has put up a monster .301 ISO so far. He hit nine home runs in 241 chances last year and went deep 37 times in just 548 tries in a full 2019 season. There is major power upside here, and Reyes leads the team in the home run model. While he is expensive on both sites, Reyes is very worth rostering, particularly when he lands at under 1% projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Powerful Josh Naylor is another option with home run potential from late in the lineup. Naylor hit 18 home runs over 531 plate appearances between AAA and the majors in 2019, though he put up just one in 104 chances in his debut season as a part-time player in Cleveland. Naylor has long been regarded for his power upside, landing a 70-grade raw power rating in traditional scouting. He is not an all-or-nothing power bat like some teammates, Naylor had just an 11.5% strikeout rate over the 104 plate appearances last year and was at 22.9% in the 279 opportunities that came in the Show in 2019. His strikeout rate through the minors was reliably in the mid-to-lower teens. This is a solid bat from a sneaky spot in the lineup, he offers eligibility at first base and outfield and costs very little, making him an excellent play at no ownership.

First baseman Jake Bauers is another inexpensive low-owned play, coming in at just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. He is at just .190/.277/.276 for the season and has managed just one home run. Bauers has shown upside in Major League stints in the past. In 2019 he made 423 plate appearances and hit 12 home runs for the Indians. In 2018 he saw his largest sample of opportunities in the majors, getting 388 with Tampa Bay and responding with 11 home runs, a .183 ISO and a .201/.316/.384 slash. Bauers is not a go-to, but he should not be left out of every Cleveland stack if he is in the lineup either.

Catcher Austin Hedges is another player who came to Cleveland via the Padres. He rarely gets mentioned despite hitting 18 home runs in 417 plate appearances in 2017, 14 in 326 tries in 2018 and 11 in 347 opportunities in 2019. Hedges struggled mightily at the plate last season, going just .145/.231/.290 with a .145 ISO and three home runs in 83 tries. This season he has made 47 plate appearances and has a similar .143/.200/.286 with a .143 ISO and two home runs. Hedges needs to get his act together, but there is upside in the bat at zero ownership where catchers are required.

The final newcomer in the projected lineup also came from the Mets in the Lindor trade. Andres Gimenez had a steady .263/.333/.398 with three home runs and eight stolen bases over 132 plate appearances for the Mets last season, and he is well-regarded for his speed and hit tool. Gimenez has very little ownership projected at low cost. With his ability to steal bases or stretch runs with his legs, he makes for a strong wraparound play from the bottom of the lineup in limited shares of Cleveland stacks.

HR Call: Franmil Reyes — Cleveland Indians

(Taking an Astros player like Yordan Alvarez would be cheating given the matchup)

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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