The midweek fantasy baseball slate has 10 games on FanDuel and 11 on DraftKings, with the second Blue Jays – Red Sox game as the difference. The seven-inning affair is an interesting wrinkle on the DraftKings slate where the pitchers may be in play, but it limits the upside for bats from two excellent teams. The 10 games that are on both sites provide a wealth of quality pitching options as well as a few targetable spots for run creation and power. Public ownership projections are giving the slate an interesting shape. There appear to be a number of exploitable leverage spots for tournament play, and a few stacks are going under-owned. Capturing a wide range of outcomes while getting deep in exposures to the highest-ranked stacks is the name of the game in making our MLB DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 11.74
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 7.32
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 1.95
Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo — 8.50
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 12.86
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 6.31
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 10.77
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 8.71
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 12.53
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 10.58
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 11.27
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 8.80
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 7.58
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 22.34
Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto — 8.22
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 6.63
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 6.52
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 12.18
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 13.91
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 4.55
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The main slate this evening is loaded with quality pitching options, as several teams get into the top-end of their rotations. Many of the key pitchers are facing divisional opponents, with Walker Buhler taking on the Giants, Zack Wheeler facing the Nationals, Lucas Giolito taking on the Royals and Tyler Mahle training his sights on the Cubs. With Max Fried and Tylor Megill dueling in another division rivalry game, Anthony DeSclafani standing up to Buehler for his team, and Andrew Heaney facing a lousy Rockies squad, there are excellent mid-range options on the slate as well.
With 14 quality starts on the season, Wheeler is in a multi-way tie for fourth in baseball. He is the game’s most reliable option for depth, in 20 starts Wheeler has completed 132.2 innings; the next-highest total is Chris Bassitt‘s 130 innings, which were compiled in 21 starts. Wheeler provides far more than depth. He has a sharp 30.4% strikeout rate and just a 5.7% walk rate on the season. He induces a 12.7% swinging strike rate and allows just a 4.2% barrel rate with a 28.9% hard-hit rate. Wheeler is excellent at limiting opposing power, hitters manage just an 84.6 mph average exit velocity against him. Wheeler draws a Nationals squad that has been better than average avoiding strikeouts in the split, they rank 11th in baseball with a 23.1% strikeout rate against righties. The active roster has just a .159 ISO and a 3.50% home run rate that are right at the average and their run creation trails the curve by five percent by collective WRC+. Washington is also likely to be without Trea Turner, who was injured last in last night’s game and is not expected to play, which gives a bump to Wheeler. For $10,600 on FanDuel and $10,300 on DraftKings the pitcher is drawing significant popularity, which becomes the major question for tournament play. With a number of other high-end options on the board, it could pay to undercut the field on Wheeler and spread some cash and lineup shares to other options, though stacking Nationals bats against the pitcher is not likely to be a good idea. On FanDuel, Wheeler is roughly three times more owned than he is likely to be the top pitcher at the end of the night, despite being the top option on the board. The difference is less stark, and Wheeler is a better option, on the DraftKings slate.
Buehler is drawing similar attention at his $10,500 price on the DraftKings slate, but he is under 10% popularity for an inflated $11,500 on the blue site. He is MLB’s leader in quality starts with 17 in his 20 outings, two more than the pitchers tied for second. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate that has been steadily climbing after a slow start in the statistic. Buehler has pitched to a 3.62 xFIP with a 5.8% walk rate and an excellent 0.91 WHIP. He induces an 11.4% swinging strike rate and allows a 7.8% barrel rate with a 37.5% hard-hit rate. Buehler’s .351 expected slugging percentage stands in the 70th percentile. Buehler is a heavy-spin pitcher, but he has not been impacted by MLB’s crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances, and his profile has been consistent throughout his career. He faces a frisky Giants lineup in a challenging spot that has potential upside. The Giants lead baseball with a collective .201 ISO against right-handed pitching and they create runs nine percent ahead of the average by WRC+ in the split. San Francisco’s 4.55% home run rate in the split is second to only the Blue Jays. Still, San Francisco strikes out at a 25.7% clip that ranks fourth worst in the league. With Buehler’s ability to keep runners off base and his strikeout acumen, he has upside on both sites.
The Cubs are the league’s worst team by strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, with a 26.8% rate. That should bode well for Tyler Mahle in his evening game at Wrigley Field. The hometown Cubs are above average with a .174 ISO and a 3.98% home run rate in the split, yet they still create runs 10% worse than average. Mahle has upside in this matchup, and he is at a dramatically different price across the industry. On DraftKings, Mahle is an expensive ace-level pitcher at $10,200 and is drawing just 13% ownership in early projections, giving him significantly positive leverage. Across town on FanDuel, Mahle is negatively leveraged – though not by all that much – because he is hilariously mispriced at just $7,300 on the slate. He has a 29.2% strikeout rate over 105.2 innings in 20 starts this season, though he has walked 9.4% and has a 1.24 WHIP that could be better. Mahle has pitched to a 3.70 xFIP and has a shiny 12.5% swinging strike rate while allowing just a 34% hard-hit rate. He is an excellent option in this matchup and can be rostered for tournament play on both sites.
Giolito is priced down for his general talent level and as compared to some of the slate’s other options. He had a minor blip in late June and early July but seems to have righted the ship. Despite issuing five free passes and striking out just three in his last start, Giolito got through six innings of one run ball to book the quality start. He was terrific the outing before that, pitching a complete game with eight strikeouts against the Astros. For the season, Giolito has tuned up a 28.2% strikeout rate over 119 innings in 20 starts, providing reliable depth. He has a 3.83 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP and has induced a terrific 14.9% swinging strike rate. He allows a 35.8% hard-hit rate with a 7.8% barrel rate on the season, and hitters are able to elevate the ball against him with a 20.8-degree average launch angle against, but generally Giolito is able to limit opposing upside. The Royals active roster has just a 22.3% strikeout rate against righties this season, placing them seventh best in the league, but they are subpar for power with just a 3.03% home run rate and a collective .146 ISO, creating runs 10% behind the curve. The struggles of Jorge Soler have been a big part of the power outage for the lineup, though the active roster has just a .160 ISO in the split dating to the start of the 2019 season. Giolito has upside and he will be at worst fairly owned on both sites.
Fried and Megill are in interesting spots facing one another in Queens. He draws a Mets lineup that is exactly at the league average by strikeout rate and run creation against southpaws, while they have a below-standard collective ISO. Meanwhile, Megill will be facing a Braves squad that is eighth worst with a 24.7% strikeout rate in the split and creates runs one percent behind the curve but has a standout .191 ISO and 4.39% home run rate in the split. Fried has thrown 84.2 innings in 16 starts this season and he has a 23.3% strikeout rate, but he is somewhat targetable for run creation given an 8.2% walk rate and 7.3% barrel rate. Fried helps his case by limiting overall power upside with just a 34.3% hard-hit rate and an 86.8 mph average exit velocity against. He will be a popular SP2 option for $8,500 on DraftKings, but potentially under-owned on FanDuel for just $7,400 and single-digit popularity. Megill is less popular on both sites, though he costs $9,400 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel. He has been solid in 30 innings, posting a 27% strikeout rate and a 1.10 WHIP with a 3.78 xFIP. He has walked the same 8.2% of hitters as Fried, but the higher strikeout rate and an excellent 2.6% barrel rate have helped him limit run creation to this point in his brief major league career. Megill is facing a Braves lineup that may be without left-handed masher Joc Pederson again, though the still standing stars in their lineup flashed their upside just yesterday. Neither pitcher is entirely safe, but both can provide a good tournament option from site to site tonight.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are dominating the top of the Stacks page once again. The team is fairly owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel and they are highly playable. They profile extremely well for offense tonight in a matchup against Kris Bubic. He has just a 19.1% strikeout rate with a 1.50 WHIP and an ugly 11.7% walk rate on the season. He allows a 9.8% barrel rate and a 43.6% hard-hit rate with 90.2 mph of average exit velocity, which creates a solid profile for both home run and run creation upside. The White Sox options remain largely the same, including Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez as the primary focuses — and most popular public plays — while Andrew Vaughn, Brian Goodwin and others make for quality mix-ins, depending on the construction of the batting order.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are typically not a go-to against left-handed pitching. The team has a 25.3% strikeout rate in the split that ranks sixth worst in baseball and the active roster has just a 3.18% home run rate and a .152 ISO while creating runs exactly at league average. With all of that in mind, the Rays are profiling well for both power and MLB DFS projections in their matchup against Nestor Cortes. Cortes has made two starts this season and thrown 27.2 innings when bullpen appearances are included. He has a 31.2% strikeout rate this season while pitching to a 3.46 xFIP and a 1.01 WHIP, but he has walked 9.2% of opposing hitters. Cortes has a 4.6% barrel rate and has allowed just a 32.3% hard-hit rate on the season. He has benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play to this point in the season and has never been this good at advanced levels in a statistically relevant sample size throughout his journey through the minors. Cortes threw 66.2 innings at the major league level for the Yankees in 2019, primarily out of the bullpen. He had a 5.04 xFIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate in the sample. Cortes should be targetable for a team with as much quality as the Rays offer at the plate in a general sense.
Subscribe to Our Awesemo Odds on YouTube Channel We here at Awesemo are committed to bringing you the very best sports betting advice in the business. To help get the best bang for your buck, we are pleased to introduce the NEW Awesemo Odds YouTube channel! All of your favorite Awesemo personalities will appear regular on Awesemo Odds, including Dave "Loughy" Loughran, Josh Engleman, Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer, Ben Rasa and more. This channel will be a FREE one-stop shop for all of Awesemo's betting strategy, advice and picks videos for all of your favorite sports to wager on, from NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA and much more. Join us now!Manuel Margot is slashing .252/.298/.401 with nine home runs and nine stolen bases in 295 plate appearances this year. Margot is a quality option for midrange power and speed, though his low on-base production has his WRC+ at five points below average on the year and may have him slightly miscast atop the lineup. Margot needs to get on base ahead of the quality run producers who follow, but he is cheap at $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings.
Wander Franco is slashing .225/.286/.363 over 112 plate appearances as he searches for his footing in the Show. Franco is one of the apex prospects in all of baseball and he will figure things out at the plate. He has three home runs and two stolen bases in his opportunities so far, but those marks and his 18% below average run creation are sure to climb. Getting in early on Franco’s turnaround now that the field has cooled, and the prices have come down makes sense. He is an excellent buy for under five percent ownership and just $2,700 on the FanDuel slate. At $4,900 on DraftKings he is a more difficult ask but does add third base eligibility that helps with lineup construction.
Nelson Cruz is Nelson Cruz and there is a lefty on the mound.
Yandy Diaz fills first and third base on both sites. In 352 plate appearances this season, Diaz is slashing .251/.369/.353 with six home runs and just a .102 ISO, though he has created runs 11% ahead of the curve by WRC+. Diaz gets on base reliably to help push this lineup along and create in front of other premium power bats available late in the batting order, though he is not a traditional cleanup hitter when it comes to power upside. He is a quality option for correlation in stacks, if not individual production.
Austin Meadows has struggled mightily against lefties this season. He has a titanic .303 ISO against right-handed pitching but lands at a pathetic .076 against same-handed pitching. He is slashing just .212/.292/.288 in the split, but in this spot in the batting order he is in play despite the low-end platoon numbers.
Randy Arozarena comes in relatively inexpensive at $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. Arozarena has hit 13 home runs and stolen 11 bases this season and he is slashing .257/.332/.424 with a .167 ISO while creating runs 13% ahead of the average. He has been excellent against lefties, posting a .228 ISO and slashing .272/.351/.500 with a reduced 24.7% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate, creating runs 35% ahead of the average. Seven of his home runs have come against southpaws despite seeing 243 plate appearances against righties to just 154 against same-handed pitching. Arozarena is under-owned for his quality in this matchup.
Brandon Lowe is another hitter who has same-handed struggles this season. Lowe has a .167 ISO against lefties but has created runs 39% worse than average and is slashing a mere .157/.243/.324 in the split over 115 plate appearances this season. For his career, however, Lowe has actually been quite good against fellow southpaws. He has a .212/.285/.444 triple slash that looks poor at the front-end, but he has dialed-in for power with a .232 ISO in the split and has been at league average creating runs over 277 plate appearances. Lowe’s biggest detriment in same-handed matchups is a ghastly 37.5% strikeout rate. He is playable in this spot, more so the higher in the batting order he hits, though he is dramatically overpriced at $5,900 on the DraftKings slate.
Francisco Mejia takes on the catching duties today. Mejia is a switch-hitter who has four home runs and a .163 ISO over 176 plate appearances this season. He is slashing .256/.314/.419 and has created runs six percent ahead of the league average, making him a quality catcher on the offensive side of the dish as well. For just $3,800 on DraftKings and a discounted $2,200 on FanDuel, Mejia is in play, though he is far more relevant where the position is mandatory.
Joey Wendle hits from the left side of the plate from his typical spot at the end of the lineup. In 309 plate appearances this season, Wendle has slashed .284/.340/.457 and created runs a surprising 21% ahead of the average. He has hit seven home runs and stolen six bases and can provide sneaky inexpensive and unowned quality for MLB DFS lineups in minimal shares.
HR Call: Gary Sanchez — New York Yankees
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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