MLB DFS roars back to life with a full slate Friday featuring 13 games that include a few spots primed for offensive fireworks. The fantasy baseball slate has a Coors Field game and several spots where inflated run totals are driving expectations of production up and down the lineup. The pitching slate is shorter than what is offered up at the plate on this one, but there are a few standout options among the litany of team’s third and fourth starters on the board. Pricing is down at pitcher relative to most other slates this season, giving tonight’s contest an interesting shape. Getting to a strong and broad portfolio of MLB DFS picks with the top-end arms in different combinations is the recipe for GPP play on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 8.91
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.10
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 8.55
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 15.52
Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant — 14.00
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 6.41
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 7.37
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 7.98
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 7.85
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 9.40
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 7.94
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 8.25
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 8.73
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 7.79
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 13.81
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 8.62
Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 22.12
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.36
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 10.75
San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores — 6.99
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 9.34
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 7.61
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 5.72
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 17.87
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 14.43
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 12.31
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate is interesting in that it is largely comprised of team’s third and fourth starters, and prices are down across the board. The list of options includes several players who are both in good matchups and have been performing well through the season, so there are quality options, but the fully trustworthy SP2 pool dries up fairly quickly on DraftKings. Robbie Ray is perhaps the top option in his high-strikeout matchup against the Rangers, while Kevin Gausman brings his ongoing quality to the hill in a decent spot against the Cardinals. Tyler Mahle draws the Brewers once again and should be primed for another solid start with strikeout upside. Steady Chris Bassitt and Marcus Stroman are projecting well in decent spots, though the upside for whiffs is limited for both low-strikeout righties facing stingy lineups. Other options on the board include Charlie Morton, Andrew Heaney, Danny Duffy, Chris Paddack and Adam Wainwright.
Ray has been featured in this space several times this season. He has 3.15 xFIP and a 32% strikeout rate with a 1.06 WHIP over his first 100.2 innings in 17 starts in the first half. Ray’s walk rate is just 6.2%, a stunning turnaround from his career 10.5% number. The results from his increased effectiveness in and around the zone are clear, Ray is inducing a 15.3% swinging strike rate and has a 30.5% CSW on the season. He is yielding a 10% barrel rate with a 14.2-degree average launch angle and a significant 48% hard-hit rate with a 91.6 mph average exit velocity. These marks have some home run upside popping up for the visiting Rangers. Ray should be in a good spot; the Rangers are 19th against lefties this year with a 23.6% strikeout rate, and they have a sub-par 3.29% home run rate with a .146 ISO. Ray is drawing appropriate ownership on both sites but comes at a salary discount to Gausman.
Gausman draws the Cardinals offense that has struggled for power and run creation against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis has a .149 team ISO and just a 3.23% home run rate against righties this year, creating runs 13% worse than average on the whole. They have been good at limiting strikeouts in the split this season, they are fourth-best in baseball with a 21.9% rate this year, which could potentially cap the ceiling for Gausman. He has a 3.31 xFIP and is striking out 30.5% of hitters in his 114.2 innings over 18 starts, providing reliable depth every time he takes the mound. Gausman has a 6.9% walk rate and allows a 6.3% barrel rate, with a 12.5-degree average launch angle but juts 36.8% hard contact and an 88 mph average exit velocity. He has induced an excellent 15.7% swinging strike rate and has a robust 32.6% CSW, which could add to the appeal even against a tough to whiff lineup like the Cardinals. Gausman is the most expensive option on both sites, that and the name-brand opponent seem to be suppressing his ownership across sites, adding to the appeal.
Mahle has made several starts against the Brewers this season and has been a strong option going into the slate for each of them. He has been solid through the first half. He has a 29.5% strikeout rate over 95.1 innings in 18 starts, coming up a bit short of highly reliable depth, but providing strong strikeout upside. Mahle induces a 12.5% swinging strike rate and has a 30.1% CSW. He has walked 8.8% of opposing hitters this season and has a 1.19 WHIP with a 3.61 xFIP overall. Mahle has allowed a 6.7% barrel rate with a 13-degree average launch angle but excels at limiting premium contact with a 33.8% hard-hit rate and an 88.4 mph average exit velocity. The opposing Brewers are the sixth-worst team in baseball, with a 25.5% strikeout rate against righties this season. They are also around league average for power in the split, with a 3.53% home run rate and a .157 ISO. In addition to the strikeouts, the Brewers have been bad creating runs in the split as well, Milwaukee sits 11% below average by WRC+ coming into the contest tonight. Mahle is affordable on both sites and he will be extremely popular, but he has solid upside.
Coors Field
The Dodgers are in Colorado tonight to take on the Rockies at Coors Field and they are three times more likely than the next closest competitor by probability of being the top stack. They will be incredibly popular, but given the extreme nature of their likelihood of putting up slate-relevant MLB DFS points, they are not that negatively leveraged on either site, which keeps them in play. Coors becomes a very specific decision at these public exposure levels and this suggestion of upside. Simply getting in bed with the field will not do the trick; the goal is to gain advantage by being above or below the public’s marks to a significant enough degree. Those who decide to dive in with Dodgers would do well to look to some lower-owned bats at the end of the lineup like Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollock and Gavin Lux, in combinations with the more obvious names like Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Justin Turner. None of those players will be low owned enough to create differentiation, however, meaning getting different with pitching and/or a second stack is critical.
On the other side of Coors, the miserable Rockies offense will be extremely low owned in their matchup against Julio Urias. He has been solid this season, putting up a 27.7% strikeout rate and walking just 5.4% of hitters over his 106.1 innings in 18 starts. Urias allows just a 32% hard-hit rate and an 86.9 mph average exit velocity, but he does yield a 7.4% barrel rate with a 14.9-degree average launch angle that could play into the big ballpark’s dimensions if he makes a mistake. There are few hitters to get excited about in the Colorado lineup, but this team is still playing their game at Coors Field, and they are inexpensive and unpopular from one through eight in the batting order, making them easy enough to roster in small shares. Playable Rockies bats include Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/16/2021″ team=”rockies”]
Boston Red Sox
The side effect of the heavy ownership on Dodgers bats is that some of the other 25 teams on the board will be under-owned for their quality. One of the prime candidates for this circumstance appears to be the Red Sox, who are in the Bronx to face the Yankees and likely starter Domingo German. This contest was slated to play yesterday, and the Sox got a full writeup in this space which should be applicable if German takes the mound. The Red Sox will be under-owned for their power and run creation upside in the hitter-friendly park. Boston’s projected lineup does have one significant change that is worth mentioning. Jarren Duran is priced at the minimum on DraftKings but does not appear on the FanDuel slate. Duran made major strides at Triple-A this season, hitting 15 home runs and stealing 12 bases in 219 plate appearances.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays land near the top of the board and appear slightly under-appreciated by the field. The Toronto bats are in a strong spot, taking on Jordan Lyles. He has completed 96.1 innings in 17 starts this season and he has just an 18.2% strikeout rate with a 7.2% walk rate and 8.1% barrel rate, ingredients that combine to cook up offensive upside for opposing bats. Lyles is pitching to a 4.91 xFIP and a 1.44 WHIP but has just a 25.7% CSW. The Blue Jays active roster, meanwhile, leads baseball with a 4.39% home run rate against righties this season. Toronto has a .189 collective ISO and a WRC+ 15% above average, while striking out just 22% of the time in the split, another mark that lands in baseball’s upper crust. This is an excellent spot for Toronto bats.
Marcus Semien is slashing .277/.345/.528 with 22 home runs and 10 stolen bases, compiling a .251 ISO and creating runs 35% better than average to kick off the batting order. Semien is under $4,000 and under 10% projected ownership on the blue site tonight, making him an easy first click. He is expensive but less popular on DraftKings, where the same principle applies.
Bo Bichette is priced up to $5,600 on DraftKings, but he is just a $3,600 play on FanDuel, which only has him coming in around 10% ownership. Bichette is slashing .293/.342/.483 with 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases in the No. 2 spot in this lineup. He has been elite, creating runs 24% better than average and posting a .190 ISO with a reasonable 21.2% strikeout rate. With his ability to create on his own or get on base ahead of one of the best hitters in baseball, Bichette is essentially a mandatory part of Toronto stacks across the industry.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is priced like a bad pitcher on DraftKings, coming in with a $6,400 salary but under 5% projected ownership. The $4,400 price tag is even inflated on FanDuel, but there is every reason to get to Guerrero. He is slashing .332/.430/.658 on the season with a whopping .326 ISO, and he creates runs 89% better than average. Guerrero’s hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity are all elite, and his 75th-percentile strikeout rate sets him apart from other more all-or-nothing sluggers.
George Springer is at just .194/.310/.417, but his season has barely started with just 85 plate appearances. He still costs $5,000 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, which is fair for a player who hit 39 home runs in 556 plate appearances in 2019 and 14 in 222 tries last year. Springer is an excellent hitter despite the weak triple-slash so far he still has a .222 ISO and has hit five home runs.
Teoscar Hernandez is slashing .297/.341/.473 and he has hit 11 home runs this season while creating runs 20% better than average by WRC+. Hernandez costs $4,400 on DraftKings, which is low for his quality, and he will be owned at under 7%. On FanDuel the $3,200 price tag is pushing Hernandez shares over 10%, but he is still easily playable. He has stolen six bases this season and is solid with a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 12.9% barrel rate that both rank well above average.
Randal Grichuk costs a mere $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel and he will not be popular on either site despite hitting 16 home runs in 343 plate appearances in the season’s first half. Grichuk has a .201 ISO and is slashing .259/.289/.460. He is at exactly the league average by WRC+. For a fair salary and low ownership, he is very much in play across the industry.
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. lands in the No. 8 spot in the lineup and is inexpensive and unpopular. He has just a 20.1% strikeout rate and puts the ball in play frequently, while slashing .262/.288/.422, though the .160 ISO and WRC+ 11% below average are of concern. For the low cost and lack of ownership, Gurriel can help offset any popularity concerns while providing sneaky late-lineup upside.
Danny Jansen has hit four home runs in his 134 plate appearances this season, and not done much else. Jansen is slashing just .168/.256/.303 and creating runs 45% below average on the season. At best he is a low-cost low-owned DraftKings catcher play at $2,400. He is an unlikely contributor at $2,100 on FanDuel, but not entirely lacking in possibility; the backstop did hit 13 home runs in 384 plate appearances in 2019.
HR Call: Ramon Laureano — Oakland Athletics
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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