MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 6/21/21

Monday’s MLB DFS slate is a small six-game contest with some of the largest prize pools of the season riding on it. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have given their tournament guarantees a bump tonight with no NBA playoff action scheduled. The overall contest sizes are up but the buy-in levels are down, making these prime targets for sharp players to exploit some weak public ownership. This is an excellent slate to dive into. There are several strong stacking opportunities and a few pitchers that will not be immediately on the minds of those who have not been following MLB DFS all season. The FanDuel bonus for a player in your lineup hitting for the cycle, however, should be ignored when building lineups. There is simply no way of forecasting that outcome, and making an attempt would only hurt overall lineup constructions. Let’s dive into the top MLB DFS picks today we should be targeting.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.


Today we have a special edition of the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, with a cameo from Alex Baker. The No. 1 daily fantasy player in the world will teach you how to play MLB DFS, with an emphasis on finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.


Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 6.87

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 19.72

Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 10.29

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.64

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 10.29

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 5.95

Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 4.58

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 10.12

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 11.50

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 11.10

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 7.59

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 11.40


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS daily fantasy baseball picks DraftKings FanDuel strategy advice tips cheat sheet tonight Monday June 21 2021 home runs top stacks pitchers Orioles Twins Rangers Reds Cubs Brewers rankings projections ownership GPPs tournaments cash games top plays

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Today’s slate is topped by an obvious ace in Yu Darvish, though he is not in the easiest of matchups with the Dodgers on the other side. Julio Urias is taking the mound for Los Angeles in that contest and he stands near the top of the pitching board for the day as well, though his opponent is no easier. Tyler Mahle will be challenged by the power of the Twins’ bats, while Adbert Alzolay is making his first start back from the IL after landing there in the first week of June with a blister. Oakland’s Frankie Montas is pitching relatively well on the surface and has a solid strikeout matchup, taking on the Texas Rangers, though he is fairly priced and drawing public popularity while perhaps not being as good as he may seem.

Darvish is pitching to a 3.94 xFIP and a 0.95 WHIP on the season. He has a 29.3% strikeout rate over 84.0 innings in his 14 starts, providing fairly reliable depth and steady MLB DFS production. Darvish is inducing a 12.1% swinging strike rate and a 30.7% CSW for the season and he sits in the 92nd percentile in hard hit rate and the 85th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He has a 79th percentile barrel rate and he is in the 81st percentile in expected slugging percentage against. Darvish is taking on a Dodgers active roster that sits third in the league with a 21.8% strikeout rate against righties this season. Los Angeles is around average for power in the split, compiling a .163 ISO and a 3.53% home run rate, but the team creates runs 14.0% better than average in the split, one of the league’s leading marks. Darvish is the most likely pitcher to put up a strong score, but he is not entirely safe against just a mid-range start that brings him back to the field and makes other options more valuable for the relative cost.

Urias has also been pitching well this season. He has a 26.9% strikeout rate with a 3.45 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP on the season. He has induced 13.0% swinging strikes and a sharp 32.1% CSW. There is plenty to like in his 84.0 innings over 14 starts, providing the same average depth as his more popular opponent. Urias has been in the 90th percentile in hard hit rate, the 84th in average exit velocity against, the 54th in barrel rate allowed and the 96th in chase rate induced, though he is in just the 40th percentile of expected slugging percentage. He draws a matchup that may be better than it seems at first glance. The Padres’ active roster ranks 10th in the league with a stingy 22.3% strikeout rate against lefties, but they have a below average .136 team ISO in the split, just a 3.01% home run rate and they create runs 9% worse than average against lefties. There is potential for upside if Urias can find a few additional strikeouts in the lineup. He is at worst in a better position than the public is giving credit for, which could be enough to win a GPP when combined with the right bats.

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Oakland’s Frankie Montas has a 3.91 xFIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate over 77.0 innings in 14 starts this season. He has walked just 5.7% of hitters but has a 1.31 WHIP and he induces 12.3% swinging strikes but has just a 27.3% CSW. Montas sits in the 16th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, the 24th in average exit velocity against, 24th in expected slugging percentage, 25th in barrel rate and just the 49th in strikeout rate. This is a pitcher who does not induce even 40.0% ground balls, so the power bats in the Rangers lineup should have a prime opportunity to tee off on the right pitch. Montas projects well, and the Texas lineup is sixth worst in baseball with a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. The Rangers have created runs 12.0% worse than average in the split this season and they have a 3.30% home run rate with a .145 WHIP that both rank below average. There is upside for Montas, but with a $9,500 price tag on FanDuel and $9,400 on DraftKings and pulling in public interest, it may be a spot to sneak under the field while grabbing some contrarian Rangers power.

Mahle silenced the sticky-spin suspicion in his recent outing, striking out 12 Brewers in just six innings and continuing his excellent season with the eyes of overreacting sportswriters on his right hand. Mahle has a 29.6% strikeout rate and a 3.55 xFIP with a 1.09 WHIP through 74.1 innings in 14 starts. The depth is not quite to elite levels, but Mahle regularly provides both strikeout upside and a clear path to both a win and a quality start bonus. He has induced 11.6% swinging strikes on the season and has a 30.4% CSW while landing in the 85th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, the 70th in barrel rate yielded, the 65th in average exit velocity against and the 80th in expected slugging percentage against. The challenge presented by the Twins will be one to watch, Minnesota is 10th best in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 23.1% strikeout rate and they are above average in our other team metrics, compiling a .180 ISO, a 4.15% home run rate and creating runs 2% better than average. The home run rate is sixth best in the split. The Twins just added Byron Buxton back into the lineup and he blasted two home runs just yesterday, adding to their already premium power. Still, Mahle is projecting for under 10.0% ownership on the FanDuel slate for just $8,800, which seems to be undervaluing the pitcher’s strikeout upside. For $9,800 on DraftKings, and at only a little more than 10.0% ownership, Mahle makes for an interesting differentiation point in pitching selections, either as a one or a two.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are on the road in the desert to face the mediocre Merrill Kelly. He has just a 21.4% strikeout rate and a 1.37 WHIP in his 78.1 innings this season. He has put up a 4.07 xFIP and induces just a 9.0% swinging strike rate with a 27.1% CSW. Kelly sits in the 35th percentile in hard hit rate, the 34th in average exit velocity allowed and the 24th of expected slugging percentage. his 59th percentile barrel rate is almost definitely the product of good luck, Kelly is in just the 17th percentile in whiff rate, 30th in strikeout rate and the 43rd percentile in chase rate. He is targetable for power, though if anyone can boost a pathetic strikeout rate it is this Brewers squad. Milwaukee’s active roster is fourth worst in baseball with a 25.8% strikeout rate in the split and they have a surprising .146 ISO with only a 3.24% home run rate against righties this season. The Brewers have created runs 17.0% worse than average in the split as well. The team is inexpensive and trending toward popularity on FanDuel, slightly less so on DraftKings. They rank well on the top stacks board for their value and there is certainly home run upside against Kelly and little resistance in the form of swing and miss stuff. The Brewers should be putting the ball in play, but their popularity and current year production against right-handed pitching should not be totally ignored in constructing stacks. Most of the hitters that should be rostered will be rostered, including Kolten Wong, Daniel Vogelbach, Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez. Only one of those names is truly a star, or even within three or four talent tiers of stardom, making this a matchup and value stacking play of which the public is already aware.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.

Oakland Athletics

This spot was going to either the Orioles or the Athletics, both teams stand out for a lack of popularity in good spots, but Oakland lands higher on the board by probability of being the top stack and is drawing less overall ownership, making them the preferred play. Rostering plenty of the Orioles’ sneaky upside against a targetable Jake Odorizzi is also advisable. For their part, the Athletics will be facing Kyle Gibson in Texas – being the road team also nudges them above the Orioles, for the potential bonus plate appearances in the top of the ninth that are not guaranteed for a home team in the bottom of the final frame. Gibson is pitching to a 4.02 xFIP on the season and he has a 1.03 WHIP but just a 19.9% strikeout rate and a 29.1% CSW while inducing 11.3% swinging strikes. He sits in the 57th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and the 56th in average exit velocity against, while coming in with an excellent 89th percentile barrel rate and he ranks in the 79th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Gibson is an average veteran pitcher at this stage in his career, but the Oakland lineup has done well against righties this season. The Athletics have a .176 team ISO and create runs 6%better than average, while pulling in an above average 3.87% home run rate in the split. With a lack of popularity and some fair pricing, Oakland stacks make for a prime spot on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Mark Canha is leading off in the projected lineup. He costs $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings, affordable prices on this slate. He is not drawing significant public ownership despite the 11 home runs he has hit in 311 plate appearances this season. Canha has a .198 ISO, and he has been creating runs 37.0% better than average this season while slashing .252/.376/.450. The on-base skills in front of Oakland’s significant power through the middle are a major asset for A’s stacks.

Ramon Laureano is back to health and back in the Oakland lineup. He has made just 222 plate appearances, but he has hit 12 home runs and stolen eight bases in that time. Laureano is slashing .253/.329/.495 with a .242 ISO and is creating runs 30.0% above average. This is an excellent player for MLB DFS point production and he is underpriced on the DraftKings slate at just $4,400. Laureano deserves more attention at that price and belongs in stacks as well as one-off shares. He costs a very fair $3,500 on the blue site and he will be under-owned by the public.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/21/2021″ team=”athletics”]

Matt Olson has been an excellent producer for this season, sitting among the league leaders with 20 home runs in his 281 plate appearances. Olson is surprising with the hit tool this year as well; he is currently slashing a stellar .305/.381/.617 and he has a tremendous .313 ISO while creating runs 71.0% better than average. He is in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and the 91st percentile in barrel rate as well as the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and 89th in hard hit rate, while posting a transformational 16.4% strikeout rate for the season. That mark is half the rate at which Olson struck out in 2020 and nearly 10 percentage points below his career average. Make no mistake: This is currently one of the best overall hitters in baseball, and he should be rostered as such.

Lefty power doesn’t get more obvious in a platoon situation than Mitch Moreland, one of MLB DFS’ more popular splits heroes. Moreland has a career .210 ISO against righties and just a .137 against same-handed pitching. He strikes out just 20.6% of the time against the opposite hand, 25.2% of the time against fellow southpaws. Moreland has seen 156 plate appearances in 2021. He has hit five home runs and owns a .142 ISO while creating runs 9% worse than average. He is slashing .241/.295/.383, striking out 25.6% of the time and walking just 7.1%, all worse marks than in recent seasons. Moreland has upside and he is affordable and low-owned across the industry, giving this spot upside, but the lack of current year production is at least a moderate concern.

Jed Lowrie hits from both sides of the plate and offers safety of being matched up by bullpen arms later in the game, while helping some of the lefties stay in the lineup as well. Lowrie is slashing .238/.322/.366 for the season however, and he is down to just a .128 ISO and 97 WRC+. He has hit only five home runs this season, and only one in the last month. Lowrie is playable as part of stacks and he should be rostered, but it is reasonable to suggest that his upside is capped most nights.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.

Matt Chapman is a player with virtually limitless upside when he is going right. Chapman has struggled significantly this season. He is slashing just .225/.326/.389 with a .164 ISO, though he is creating runs 4% better than average despite the ongoing issues. He has far more power than his ISO suggests, and the mere eight home runs he has hit in 291 plate appearances. In only 152 tries last season he hit 10 and delivered with 36 long balls in his 670 plate appearances in 2019. Chapman has upside on any given slate. The pricing and ownership are favorable as well. On DraftKings, Chapman comes in with less than 5% ownership, despite just a $4,700 price. He is under $3,000 on FanDuel and is inexplicably under 7% ownership.

Seth Brown has a powerful left-handed bat, as evidenced by his nine home runs in just 159 plate appearances this season. However, Brown struggles with contact and on-base skills, slashing just .189/.264/.413 on the season. There is MLB DFS upside in the home run rate and the excellent .224 ISO however, and with no one at all on the outfielder at $3,000 on DraftKings and an appealing $2,300 on FanDuel, he makes a strong play from later in the lineup.

Catcher Sean Murphy always draws some attention on the DraftKings slate and today is no different, though he will be under 10.0% exposure in public lineups, which is easy to roster. Murphy has hit eight home runs and is slashing .214/.321/.406 for the season with a .193 ISO while creating runs 9% better than average. He has thunderous power from the right side of the plate and sits in the 86th percentile in barrel rate this season. There is upside in getting to more Murphy than the field in stacks and as a catcher one-off where needed.

Shortstop Elvis Andrus has been beaten up in this space recently and he has responded (not directly) with a steady increase in quality over recent weeks. Andrus is up to a .224/.272/.294 slash which savvy readers will recognize as still not at all good. He has just a .070 ISO and is creating runs 40.0% worse than average on the season, though he has stolen five bases. Over the past two weeks, Andrus has been slashing .268/.333/.390 and has created runs right at the league average, which would be a massive improvement if sustained. For just $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings, there is minimal upside as a wraparound play, though Andrus’ primary contribution will likely be as a salary offset.

HR Call: Anthony Santander — Baltimore Orioles

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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