MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

Midweek baseball brings a seven-game MLB DFS main slate across both sites this evening. Despite the shorter slate, gamers have several strong options on the mound and at the plate. Getting to unique combinations becomes more challenging as slate sizes shrink, but there are plenty of lower-owned teams or hitting combinations within chalky stacks, for those willing to embrace some risk. Knowingly dropping a plate appearance to pick up significant ownership or salary offsets is a reasonable consideration on most tournament slates. As we decrease the number of games it becomes increasingly viable. Exploring individual ownership within the teams that rank well on the Top Stacks Tool is another excellent way to uncover underappreciated value. Putting all of these factors together is part of the grind and most of the fun of building MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock where we will review all of the games with an emphasis on finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 13.53

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 10.29

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 9.15

Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel — 10.14

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 6.85

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 9.03

Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 11.84

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 10.54

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 10.44

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 22.39

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 13.23

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 5.74

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 10.78

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 5.58

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Wednesday’s pitching slate includes a few premium names and several next-tier (or lower) starters in interesting spots. The slate is led by Robbie Ray who has been pitching brilliantly and draws the Miami Marlins in his start; Ray has the leading probability to beat his over/under on 7.5 strikeouts, currently sitting at 65.0% likely on our new MLB Player Props Tool. On the other side of the same game, Trevor Rogers will look to continue his excellent run in a tougher matchup, while Trevor Bauer is in a difficult spot of his own facing the Padres out West in the night cap. Joe Musgrove remains an inexpensive option facing Bauer’s Dodgers, Musgrove could provide significant upside on this slate, while additional value arms include James Kaprielian and Danny Duffy.

Ray will be taking on a Miami team that is below average at everything against left-handed pitching. The Marlins active roster sits third-worst in baseball with a 28.1% strikeout rate in the split, they have just a 2.87% home run rate and a .142 team ISO, while creating runs 13.0% worse than average. The team has added interesting bats in recent weeks, and they peak at certain points, they are also showing a bit of home run upside against Ray, who can struggle in that department when he is not going right. For his part, he has been excellent all season. Ray has a 31.5% strikeout rate over his 74.2 innings in 13 starts. Ray has his walk rate down to just 6.5% on the season, putting together a 1.17 WHIP with his 3.14 xFIP while inducing 16.1% swinging strikes and posting a solid 31.2% CSW. Ray does sit in just the fifth percentile in hard hit rate allowed and average exit velocity against, and the 25th percentile in expected slugging percentage, as well as the 11th in barrel rate; these are all bad contact metrics that could turn on any given day. Still, with the slate’s biggest and best strikeout upside, Ray is a leading play despite the $11,000 price on FanDuel and popularity at just $9,200 on DraftKings.

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Trevor Bauer has been sharp over his 15 starts in Dodgers blue. He has a 31.5% strikeout rate and has completed 95.2 innings, providing excellent depth and a steady chance at a win and quality start bonus. Bauer has a 3.73 xFIP on the season with a 0.94 WHIP. He induces a 12.2% swinging strike rate but has just an average 29.7% CSW. Bauer sits in the 70th percentile in expected slugging percentage against, despite giving up a fair amount of hard contact and barreled balls. He avoids major trouble in most starts and can be relied upon for steady MLB DFS production. The issue for Bauer is primarily in the matchup. The Padres active roster is third-best in baseball with just a 22.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They have just an average 3.46% home run rate and a .156 team ISO in the split, while creating runs at exactly the average. There is not an extreme threat, but the upside could perhaps be capped against a good but not great offense, that does not strike out with frequency. For $11,000 on FanDuel and $10,500 with lower ownership than Ray, it is worth it to find out what Bauer will do in the spot on both sites tonight.

Danny Duffy is facing the Yankees and projects to have upside in the matchup, though there has to be concern about a potential pitch or innings limit in his first start back from the injured list. Duffy did not make a rehab start in the minors before jumping back into the Royals’ rotation for this start, so it is unclear exactly how long he will be expected to go. In a full start, Duffy compares favorably to some of the top-end pitchers. The Yankees have a 4.26% home run rate against lefties that is among the league’s best, but they hit for just an average .169 ISO and create runs exactly at the league average, while striking out in a tie for 15th in baseball at 23.6%, this is a league average offense with some home run upside, it is neither a great nor terrible spot for Duffy. He was dealing before hitting the IL, posting a 28.2% strikeout rate, a 3.85 xFIP, a 1.13 WHIP and inducing 14.2% swinging strikes in 41.2 innings. Missing that much time is bound to have an impact however, Duffy costs just $9,500 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings. Monitor the news for any information about a pitch count and act accordingly. If there is no leash, there is upside at under 5% ownership across sites.

Joe Musgrove was featured in this space prior to his most recent start. He continues to be underpriced across the industry and he is drawing value-based attention tonight for the misprice. Musgrove has been excellent through most of 2021, posting a 31.5% strikeout rate across 79.0 innings in 13 starts. He has induced a 13.8% swinging strike rate and has an excellent 32.1% CSW. He is facing a Dodgers team that may return Cody Bellinger to the lineup, which would add a major left-handed threat. Still, Los Angeles sits just 14th in baseball with a .164 ISO against right-handed pitching, they have a league average 3.61% home run rate in the split as well, although they create runs 13.0% better than average and strikeout at just 22.2% against righties. Musgrove is not in a safe situation in this matchup, but his talent is clear as is the upside. The heavy public ownership is the only concern in rostering. If there is a clear second option for high-end value on the board, it could make sense to undercut the field on Musgrove shares for a change.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are coming up as an interesting team for stacking, they are trending to be lower owned than they should be across both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Atlanta offense is not quite as strong after the loss of Marcell Ozuna following his despicable domestic incident, but the Braves have persevered; Atlanta’s active roster sits fourth-best in baseball with a 4.30% home run rate against right-handed pitching on the season. They have a .188 team ISO in the split and create runs 3% better than average, though the team strikeout rate is a below par 25.1% in the split. Atlanta benefits from a matchup against Tylor Megill a righty making his Major League debut. Megill does not profile as much of a prospect, though he was pitching relatively well with a 36.0% strikeout rate in 40.1 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this season.

The Braves projected lineup starts off with one of baseball’s best. Ronald Acuna Jr. is no stranger to MLB DFS owners, and he will be popular as usual. Acuna costs $4,400 on the FanDuel slate and $6,200 on DraftKings. He is slashing .285/.394/.602 on the season, with 20 home runs in 297 plate appearances. Acuna has a tremendous .317 ISO and creates runs 66.0% better than average, adding 15 stolen bases to his already robust MLB DFS production. Acuna is a must for Braves stacks, getting him below 20.0% public popularity on a seven-game slate would be a bonus.

Freddie Freeman mans first base for the Braves and costs $3,900 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings. He has long been an excellent option for production, slashing .240/.352/.452 over his first 310 plate appearances this season. hitting 16 home runs and posting a .213 ISO. Freeman creates runs 16.0% better than average for the year but there is more lurking. Freeman sits in the 91st percentile in hard hit rate, the 89th in average exit velocity and the 80th in barrel rate, as well as the 94th percentile in walk rate and 71st in strikeout rate, a fantastic contact profile. He averages a 15.3-degree launch angle and is primed to carry the Braves through the Summer. Freeman is not popular enough on either site tonight.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/23/2021″ team=”braves”]

Ozzie Albies brings his switch-hitting bat to the No. 3 spot in the Braves lineup. He is slashing .257/.326/.496 with 11 home runs and nine stolen bases this season. Albies has a .239 ISO and creates runs 21.0% better than average. He is an excellent option for MLB DFS production at the position and frequently goes undervalued. Albies is trending for low ownership despite costing just $3,200 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings.

Outfielder Abraham Almonte is another switch-hitter in the middle of this projected lineup. Almonte is filling in for Ozuna. He has seen 74 plate appearances to this point, slashing .255/.432/.436 with a .182 ISO while creating runs 45.0% better than average in the small sample. Almonte has hit one home run and stolen no bases, though he has shown more speed upside than power in his career as a part-time player. Ultimately, Almonte is filler and is miscast as a cleanup hitter in this lineup. If he is in the spot he is playable, but there are better upside options overall.

Austin Riley has a far stronger profile for MLB DFS production. Riley hit his stride earlier in the Summer and he has hit 12 home runs in his 280 plate appearances. Riley is coming through with the hit tool and on-base skills this season as well, slashing .273/.357/.463 for the season with a .190 ISO and creating runs 23.0% better than average. He has a chance to go deep against any pitcher and he is flashing one of the team’s better home run marks in the model. With just third base eligibility but costing only $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, Riley is not drawing nearly enough public popularity.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.

Shortstop Dansby Swanson is another underpriced Braves bat, though he is down to slashing just .236/.287/.441 this year, following a solid breakout over the last season and a half. Swanson is still hitting for power. He has a .205 ISO on the year but is creating runs 6% below average, largely due to the lack of on-base skills. He has hit 12 home runs in 287 plate appearances so far, displaying the clear upside MLB DFS players are seeking at the position. For the price and lack of popularity, Swanson is a fine option. Getting ahead of the curve is a good plan.

William Contreras is a cheap catcher option for DraftKings players. He costs just $3,200 on that slate and $2,700 on the blue site. Contreras hits from the right side of the plate and is slashing .227/.306/.437 on the season, though he has sneaky pop with a .210 ISO and seven home runs in a small 134 plate appearance sample. That is the type of unowned upside that is valuable when building out many versions of a team stack.

Ender Inciarte rounds off the projected lineup. Inciarte has made 67 plate appearances this season, hitting one home run and stealing a base while slashing .220/.277/.288 in the small sample. Last season, Inciarte saw just 131 plate appearances, slashing .190/.262/.250 and the year before he went .246/.343/.397 over 230 opportunities. This is simply not a good option for offense any longer, if he is in the lineup he can help offset cost but there are better plays.

HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.