The Thursday slate has a solid eight-game offering on tap for MLB DFS gamers tonight. The slate’s pitching is extremely interesting tonight, with a number of B or B+ starters and Walker Buehler, who is a cut above but priced like a top-tier ace. Getting to varied mid-range starting pitching options seems like a sound approach given the plateau of plausible pitching projections behind the top options. Pairing those starters with the correct bats will be a juggling act, there are many “both sides” spots for MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel today.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock where we will review all of the games with an emphasis on finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 13.76
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 10.99
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 13.57
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 10.51
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 8.17
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 8.65
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 5.21
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 8.65
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 7.44
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 11.32
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 11.18
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 6.09
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 9.73
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 8.46
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 10.75
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 12.18
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Buehler is the top option by name recognition and general talent, but he costs significantly more than every other option on the board. He is followed by Jose Berrios in an interesting and under-owned spot against the Indians and Luis Garcia of the Astros in a plus matchup against the lowly Tigers. Nick Pivetta ranks well in a challenging spot against the division rival Rays, while Carlos Martinez and Joe Ross are on the board for value in their respective matchups against the Pirates and Marlins, two of baseball’s worst overall offenses. Neither of those options is safe, and this entire list lacks star power, but tonight is that type of slate.
Buehler costs $11,500 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel, by a wide margin the highest price on both sites. He has pitched well through the first part of the season, completing 90.2 innings in his 14 starts, providing reliable depth every time out. Buehler has a strong chance at a win and quality start bonus in most contests, and his Dodgers are heavy favorites tonight. Awesemo’s new MLB Player Props Tool has Buehler as 69% likely to miss his over of 7.5 strikeouts, however. He has a 25.2% rate on the season that stands a notch below where most pitchers at this price tier fall. Buehler has a 3.66 xFIP and a sparkling 0.90 WHIP with a 5.4% walk rate. He is inducing 11.7% swinging strikes and generating a league average 29.8% CSW. There is sneaky upside in the opposing Cubs if Buehler can avoid their power, Chicago strikes out at a 26.1% rate against right-handed pitching this season, third-worst in baseball. The Cubs create runs 6% worse than average in the split, but they do have a 4.28% home run rate that is among the best in baseball and their .180 team ISO in the split is above average. Despite the hefty price tag, Buehler will be heavily owned on both sites. With a wide range of options in the middle, he still stands out as one of the top projected pitchers, but paying into the public popularity sets MLB DFS players on a very specific lineup construction course. Finding ways to get to Buehler with lesser-owned stacks will be a critical approach for this slate.
Berrios will be looking to wrangle a Cleveland team that sits 10th in baseball with a 22.9% strikeout rate but creates runs 10% worse than average against righties this season. The Indians hit for slightly above average power, with a 3.82% home run rate and .169 ISO against right-handed arms. Berrios lands in just the 33rd percentile in expected slugging percentage for the season and only the 26th percentile in barrel rate allowed, though he has managed to avoid premium contact despite hitters getting the sweet spot on the ball. Berrios sits in the 55th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and the 66th in average exit velocity yielded. Paired with his 80th percentile walk rate and 75th percentile chase rate, those marks have been effective this season. Berrios has a 3.49 xFIP and a 1.09 WHIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate, covering 83.1 innings in his 14 starts. The average depth is less than what Buehler has been providing, but the strikeout rate is essentially the same, while Berrios draws $2,000 less in salary on the blue site in a tougher spot to generate swing and miss. For the discount in salary and slightly in ownership, Berrios is at least worth consideration.
It would be fair to say Nick Pivetta has pitched above his head this season. He has compiled a 27% strikeout rate and a 4.37 xFIP with a 1.35 WHIP. He is inducing 10.7% swinging strikes but has just a 27.2% CSW, while ranking in just the 18th percentile in chase rate, meaning batters do not swing at his stuff outside the zone, and he misses that zone regularly. Pivetta has an ugly 11.3% walk rate, contributing to that high WHIP. He sits in just the 31st percentile in barrel rate, the 32nd in average exit velocity and the 43rd in hard hit rate, as well as the 39th in expected slugging percentage against. These are all concerning marks for a starter drawing around 20% ownership on both sites. He is in a plus spot for strikeouts, but he will be under heavy fire while getting them. The opposing Rays rank fourth-worst in baseball with a 26% strikeout rate in the split but they are among the league’s best teams in creating runs, 11% above average, and they have a 4.31% home run rate with a .186 team ISO against righties this season. This is easily a both sides spot, Rays bats could connect for significant power, but it is entirely plausible that Pivetta mows them down for an upside strikeout start that would create a relevant MLB DFS score for this slate.
Garcia has been quietly solid throughout 2021, putting up 70.1 innings in his 12 starts while posting a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. He has a steady 3.98 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP while inducing 13% swinging strikes and compiling a solid 31.1% CSW. Garcia throws a low-velocity five-pitch mix, including a 93.2 mph fastball with a premium cutter, a high-quality slider and curveball mix and a plus changeup. Garcia ranks in the 59th percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 58th percentile in barrel rate, as well as the 73rd percentile in whiff rate and 71st in chase rate. He is facing a Tigers offense that is worst in baseball, compiling a 26.3% strikeout rate in the split. The Tigers do not make up for their swing and miss with power, they have a slightly below average 3.29% home run rate and a .152 ISO while creating runs 7% worse than average against righties this year. There is clear upside for Garcia, yet he is drawing under 10% ownership for his $9,600 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Garcia is playable at $8,700 despite his justifiable popularity.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.Atlanta Braves
The Braves were featured in this space yesterday and they rank better overall on the site’s Top Stacks Tool for today’s slate. As one of the top three teams on the board, the Braves will be popular tonight, but there is a bit of leverage on the DraftKings slate, and plenty of overall quality even at mid-range ownership. The Braves are facing Tony Santillan who will likely only cover a few early innings before yielding to the bullpen, which has the Atlanta lineup profiling well for power in the home run model. Atlanta takes a hit if they are again without Ronald Acuna Jr., who was a late scratch last night, but there is major upside in Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. The Braves are in strong consideration as a top-end offense again tonight, mixing and matching some of the lineup’s lower-owned options will be important for lineup differentiation if their popularity grows.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is looking popular on the slate as well, though they are ranking out as one of the top overall options. The problem is starker on FanDuel, where most of the hitters in the Blue Jays lineup are pulling in an ownership projection of more than 20%. The pricing model on DraftKings creates more room to work, but it is consequently more difficult to roster all of the necessary Blue Jays bats alongside anything else of quality. Toronto offers major upside for power and run creation, and their lineup is only getting better with the return of George Springer. This team can be rostered from top to bottom, with Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all presenting premium options in the infield, while Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel are high-end outfielders. Even Reese McGuire is at least playable as a catcher on DraftKings, though he will be one of the most widely rostered members of this lineup at just $2,100 on the site.
Houston Astros
The Astros are the top ranked stack on both sites, and they are drawing slightly positive leverage in a matchup against Jose Urena. Houston has been excellent as a team against pitching from both hands this season. The Astros lead the league with a 19.5% strikeout rate against righties, 2.1 percentage points better than the second-ranked Pirates. Houston is significantly better than Pittsburgh at everything else. In fact, the Astros are significantly better than the entire league in run creation in this split, coming in 25.o% better than average by WRC+. The team has a 4.12% strikeout rate that is among the top units in the league, and they have a .186 ISO that can be described the same way. Urena, meanwhile, is pitching to just a 13.9% strikeout rate over his 65.1 innings this season. He has a 5.05 xFIP and a 1.59 WHIP, inducing just 7.6% swinging strikes and compiling a 23.4% CSW while walking 10.2% of hitters. Urena is in just the 16th percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 10th percentile in hard hit rate, as well as the 23rd in average exit velocity allowed. The anemic strikeout rate mentioned above drops him all the way to just the second percentile in strikeout rate in the league, which does not pair well with a 30th percentile walk rate. He is barely clinging to his job, with any other organization he would likely no longer be with the organization; with Detroit, he’s a critical piece of the rotation. Fire away with Astros bats again tonight.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/24/2021″ team=”astros”]
Remember a few short weeks ago when you thought Jose Altuve was washed? The massive overreaction to his terrible .219/.286/.344 season in 2020 has cooled in the wake of his monster start to 2021. Altuve has made 300 plate appearances and has hit 17 home runs, slashing .295/.370/.521 with a .226 ISO along the way. He has created runs 46% better than average by WRC+ yet costs just $4,200 on FanDuel and is pulling in only around 10% ownership against a terrible pitcher on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings, Altuve is the most expensive Astros hitter at $5,800 and he will be under-owned to the same degree. He strikes out just 15.7% of the time and is going against Urena, who has no strikeout upside. It is very likely that Altuve will have four or five balls in play this evening.
Outfielder Michael Brantley hits from the left side of the plate and slots into the second spot in the projected lineup. Brantley is among the league leaders, contending for a batting title over the season’s first half. He is slashing .356/.402/.523 on the season. He has hit just four home runs and has only a .167 ISO but creates runs 59% better than average based on the excellent hit and on-base tools. Brantley is underpriced at $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, though he is drawing a bit of popularity on both sites. He is a strong option for significant shares in Astros stacks regardless.
Yuli Gurriel is one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball. He will again be under-owned, coming in below 10% in afternoon projections. He is cheap at just $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings. He has been excellent through the first part of the season, slashing .328/.390/.518 with a .190 ISO and a 151 WRC+. Gurriel has hit 10 home runs and has excellent upside near the top of the Astros order. If he is in his customary spot around fifth in the lineup he is just as appealing.
Yordan Alvarez has hit 11 home runs and is slashing .306/368/.526 with a .220 ISO on the season, and it somehow feels as though he has underperformed. Alvarez hits from the left side of the plate and has an 80th percentile hard hit rate (47.6%) and an 84th percentile average exit velocity, as well as an 86th percentile barrel rate (13.7%). Alvarez’ expected slugging percentage is in the 88th percentile (.593) as well, providing a window into his gargantuan upside. Alvarez has a significant chance at hitting a home run tonight and should be rostered in all formats.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Shortstop Carlos Correa costs $5,100 on DraftKings where he will be owned at under 10% by the public. He has a $4,200 price tag and even less popularity across town, where he is an excellent pay-up option after Alvarez’ popularity at his ludicrous $3,800 price. Pairing the two in the middle of the lineup is a solid play for catching much of the premium Astros offense. Correa has hit 14 home runs in a resurgent season, slashing .298/.391/.531 along the way. He has a .233 ISO and is creating runs 57% better than average. This is an excellent piece of an excellent offense.
Kyle Tucker has a heavy ownership number on both sites. On the plus side of splits, Tucker has a premium spot for power and run production. He has a .273/.335/.512 slash on the season with a .240 ISO and 13 home runs. Tucker is yet another Astros player creating runs above average by WRC+. Tucker has a .280 batting average on balls in play this season, dragging down his slash somewhat, his quality can be seen in the 100th percentile .330 expected batting average and 99th percentile .618 expected slugging percentage.
Abraham Toro is doing his able best filling in for superstar Alex Bregman. Toro has made 39 plate appearances this season, slashing .306/.359/.472 with two home runs so far in the tiny sample. He offers third base eligibility on both sites, coming in for $3,100 on DraftKings and at a near-minimum $2,100 on FanDuel, which is not spiking his popularity as much as one might suspect. Toro is a toolsy player with upside. He should not be ignored as though he were a talentless fill-in. He saw 435 Double-A plate appearances in 2019, slashing .306/.393/.513 with a .207 ISO and 16 home runs, adding four stolen bases. He made another 89 plate appearances in Triple-A and 89 in the Majors that season, adding a home run in the minors and two in the Show, plus a stolen base. Toro made 97 Major League plate appearances in 2020, slashing just .149/.237/.276 with three home runs and a stolen base, but last season is forgivable for all. Over 68 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, Toro was slashing .352/.485/.593 with a .241 ISO, two home runs and two stolen bases, there is sneaky upside here for no cost and low ownership.
Speedster Myles Straw is up to a .327 on-base percentage, making his abilities on the base-paths more of a weapon. Straw is blazingly fast, but he needs to reach first base with more reliability in the long-term. He is slashing .254/.327/.325 and has no power to speak of, coming in with just a .071 ISO and two home runs. He has stolen nine bases, though he creates runs 11% worse than average for the season. Straw is a mix-in option for just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, though he is not a prime go-to option in any circumstance.
The same is true of Martin Maldonado, outside of everything about speed. Maldonado slots in as a catcher for very little investment, but his popularity is outpacing his overall upside. He is slashing just .167/.251/.285 with five home runs and a .118 ISO on the season, where the position is mandatory he is at best OK, while he seems less than necessary where catchers are not required.
HR Call: Kyle Schwarber — Washington Nationals
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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