The MLB DFS slate looks overloaded with power, with most of the night’s 26 teams starting their fourth or fifth man in the rotation. The matchups and some warm weather are creating inflated run totals in several spots. Both FanDuel and DraftKings are making it challenging to get to the very best bats along with the only clear premium pitchers on the site in unique ways, though one of the night’s best teams on the Top Stacks Tool is going significantly under-owned on both sites. Finding the right mid-range pitcher on a slate ripe with them is going to be the key to success. Gamers have been regularly reminded of the variance and value provided by mid-range starters in good spots. The right discount can unlock multiple key bats in MLB DFS lineups today.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock where we will review all of the games with an emphasis on finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 10.42
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.32
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 20.34
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 15.21
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 2.72
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 8.63
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 13.83
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 14.46
Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 4.29
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 22.03
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 6.76
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 4.99
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 10.37
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 11.70
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 5.55
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 8.31
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 12.25
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 9.39
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 11.13
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 5.31
Seattle Mariners: Tom Murphy — 3.95
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 18.95
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 11.61
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 8.83
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 12.55
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 6.54
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate is topped by Chicago’s Carlos Rodon who draws a plus matchup against the Mariners but comes at a hefty price tag. Framber Valdez leads the Astros into the fray against the Tigers and comes up strong for the favorable matchup, while Mike Minor is in an interesting spot against the Rangers for far less salary. There are pitchers that can win or lose a tournament throughout the mid-range of salary across both sites. DraftKings players would do well to vary SP2 plays to capture a broad range of outcomes. Names to consider include Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack, Sean Manaea, Griffin Canning and Yusei Kikuchi. From the value range, the Top Pitchers Tool favors Corbin Martin and Dane Dunning.
Rodon will be excessively popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, MLB DFS gamers are going to flock to the one pitcher on the slate who is performing like a true ace this season. He has made 12 starts, completing 73.2 innings, and is striking out a whopping 36.6% of opposing hitters. He induces an excellent 15.8% swinging strike rate and has compiled a 30.9% CSW. Rodon sits in the 91st percentile of expected slugging percentage allowed, and the strikeout rate ranks in the 96th percentile. He has been excellent to this point. He has a crackling 2.91 xFIP with a 0.84 WHIP and has cut his walks to just 7.0% this season. The opposing Mariners offer little resistance; Seattle’s active roster is fourth-worst in baseball with a 27.9% strikeout rate against lefties this season, which could make this a major upside start for Rodon. Seattle has just an average home run rate of 3.56% in the split, with a .161 team ISO that also ranks near the middle of the league. The Mariners have created runs 15.0% worse than average by WRC+, lending credibility to the idea that Rodon is both safe and has major indicators for a ceiling start. The only concern is the public popularity at price, avoiding the highest owned value stacks in lineup constructions that have Rodon would be wise.
Valdez has pitched well in his five starts this season. Valdez missed time but has steady overall numbers, completing 32.1 innings to the tune of a 3.24 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP, though the 22.1% strikeout rate leaves plenty to be desired in terms of upside when he is priced over $10,000 on both sites. Valdez has induced 11.6% swinging strikes on the season however, and he is facing a Tigers team that strikes out at a 28.6% clip against southpaws, the worst mark in the sport. Valdez is a power vampire on the mound. He specializes in inducing bad contact and keeping the ball on the ground. This season, Valdez has a ridiculous 71.1% ground ball rate, and he sits in the 94th percentile with just a 3.3% barrel rate allowed. He ranks in the 88th percentile in expected slugging percentage against, though his soft-toss arsenal has been met with hard hits. He lands in only the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 28th in average exit velocity allowed. Still, with an average launch angle of a hilarious -6.0, everything is hit into the ground, which makes hard contact irrelevant. Detroit is also among the worst teams in the league for power in the split, they have just a 2.9% home run rate and a .142 ISO while creating runs 12.0% worse than average against lefties. This is a great spot for Valdez and his pricing is rendering him less popular than he should be across the industry.
Mike Minor is not typically a name that leaps to mind as a potential slate leading play. On tonight’s board, with a matchup against the largely hapless Texas Rangers, Minor stands out for quality and price. The third straight southpaw on this list, Minor has been pitching well this season, compiling a 4.03 xFIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate with a 7.0% walk rate over his 86.1 innings in 15 starts. He is inducing an 11.2% swinging strike rate, though he has just a 28.1% CSW. He walks a fine line between quality and disaster however, coming in with just a 26th percentile barrel rate and ranking in the 28th percentile in expected slugging percentage with a .443. Minor does not quite strike out enough hitters to make that contact profile hold up over time, but it is reasonable to expect a good start from him in this spot. The Rangers active roster ranks 19th in baseball with a 24.0% strikeout rate against lefties. They have a below average 3.13% home run rate in the split and just a .134 ISO that ranks second-worst in the league. Texas has created runs 15.0% worse than average this season, reducing the implied threat against Minor. This may not be a major strikeout spot, but Minor is very much in play given his pricing.
Lopez is drawing slightly less ownership than he should and seems to be in a spot where the projection may come down as other plays become more popular. Already similarly priced pitchers like Manaea and Paddack are in range of his projected ownership, despite potentially worse situations or less talent. Lopez is not in an overly safe spot either. However, he draws the Nationals whose top-heavy lineup sits eighth best in baseball with just a 22.8% strikeout rate against righties. Washington is below average in run creation and power however, with notable sluggers at the top of the lineup rapidly trailing off into low-end options. The Nationals’ active roster has just a .148 ISO and a 3.21 home run rate in the split, and they create runs 6% worse than average. This is not a great offense, if Lopez can avoid trouble up top he will be in fine shape for the price and popularity. He has been sharp this season, posting a 25.0% strikeout rate across 85.0 innings in 15 starts. He has a 3.50 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP while inducing 11.0% swinging strikes and presents upside with ownership at or below 10.0%.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.Houston Astros
Yesterday’s featured team connected for the slate’s biggest night, and they look primed to repeat the performance tonight. Houston stacks are going under-owned on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, making them an excellent spot to spend the money saved when rostering mid-range pitching options. The Astros lineup is high-quality from top to bottom, they exploded for runs last night even without Jose Altuve, who should be atop the lineup this evening. Joining Altuve in stacks should be the regular cast of talent including Michael Brantley, the always undervalued Yuli Gurriel, power-packed Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker. Abraham Toro should not be overlooked but he is going under 5% projected ownership on both sites. Toro brings interesting upside to the lineup while he is filling in for Alex Bregman.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays land in this space once again, they are the most likely team to be the top stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, according to the Top Stacks Tool, though they are owned appropriately once again. The Blue Jays are expensive and popular, but worth rostering if a viable second stack emerges with lower ownership and a quality mid-range arm fits into the pricing construct. Toronto is absolutely loaded; the team can be rostered from one through nine in their matchup against Matt Harvey. He has made 15 starts — an accomplishment in itself for Harvey – though he has been barely competent, putting together a 4.82 xFIP and a 1.78 WHIP for the season. Harvey has just a 17.5% strikeout rate and is highly targetable. The Blue Jays’ popularity is not so out of hand that they cannot be rostered on a 13-game slate. The goal simply must be to avoid putting together the chalkiest bats with the most popular pitchers and second stack. Diversifying the companions of the Blue Jays and Astros share in lineups would be wise on this slate.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have been a quality offense throughout the season, though one that does not tend to land this space as they are generally popular and owned correctly, or even over-owned when in the best of situations. On tonight’s slate, however, there is a chance that they are going somewhat overlooked. The Padres have been baseball’s best team stealing bases this season, which adds to the appeal of a lineup that ranks 16th with just a .160 ISO against right-handed pitching. The Padres have been exactly average in creating runs against righties and they have a league-average 3.56% home run rate, though they do strike out at juts a 22.1% rate that lands among baseball’s best. The Padres will at worst put a number of balls in play tonight, making their speed an asset. Corbin Martin has just a 16.5% strikeout rate for the season, though it comes in just a 15.2 inning sample over two starts. Martin has walked 15.2% of hitters and put up a 6.05 xFIP and a 2.04 WHIP in the unfair sample. In an additional 23.2 innings at Triple-A this year, he has a 5.36 xFIP but a 26.4% strikeout rate. Martin is targetable with an offense of this quality.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/25/2021″ team=”padres”]
Leadoff man Tommy Pham has forced his way back to fantasy relevance in his 271 plate appearances this season. He is slashing .246/.369/.384 with six home runs and 11 stolen bases. His on-base skills and speed at the top of the lineup have been an asset and have lent to his 17.0% above average WRC+ mark on the season. Pham is inexpensive for his quality, coming in at just $3,400 and under 5% ownership on FanDuel. With the same popularity at a $4,600 price on DraftKings, he is an excellent way to start a Padres stack.
Fernando Tatis Jr. does not need a sales pitch to land in a large share of public MLB DFS lineups on any slate. Tonight is the rare instance where Tatis is arguably under-owned, coming in just around 10.0% on both sites despite a clearly plus matchup. He has hit 22 home runs this season and added 15 stolen bases, a 30-30 or better is easily in sight at this point. Tatis is slashing .281/.365/.657 on the year with a ridiculous .376 ISO, creating runs 70.0% better than average. He is well worth the price on both sites and should not be excluded from Padres stacks.
Jake Cronenworth slots into the No .3 spot in the projected lineup. He has first and second base eligibility on FanDuel and costs just $3,300. Cronenworth will be essentially unowned despite the flexibility, price and position in the batting order, making him a great play in Padres stacks. He has just a 13.8% strikeout rate on the season, while slashing .284/.351/.468 over 319 plate appearances. He has 11 home runs and three stolen bases, creating runs 28.0% better than average. The ISO is surprisingly just .184, lower than one would expect given the home run total and other quality marks, but Cronenworth does plenty to warrant getting well over the field’s extremely low ownership.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Manny Machado costs $5,000 on the DraftKings slate and just $3,900 on FanDuel, but he will be well under 10.0% public ownership on both sites. This seems like a mistake given the matchup and general upside of the stack, and the fact that Machado is one of the best hitters in it. He has hit 12 home runs this season while slashing .258/.338/.464 and putting up a .206 ISO. Machado is also above average creating runs, coming in at a 120 WRC+. Despite the slip in batting average and on-base skill apparent in the triple-slash, Machado has been excellent and is a solid producer of MLB DFS points in the middle of Padres lineups tonight.
First baseman Eric Hosmer is a steady presence in the Padres lineup who can always be relied upon to have almost no public ownership regardless of matchup, projection or seemingly any other factor. Hosmer is simply someone that people do not like to roster, which makes him a favored target for ownership shares when stacking Padres. He has had a steady career, though he never reached the once-forecasted greatness. Hosmer is undergoing a downturn so far in 2021. He has just a .253/.310/.361 slash with a .108 ISO and is creating runs 11.0% worse than average this year. Hosmer suffers from a .281 batting average on balls in play by opposing hitters, and there are major positive indicators in his 85th percentile average exit velocity, 86th percentile hard hit rate and 89th percentile strikeout rate. At worst, Hosmer is frequently putting the ball in play and hitting it hard, though he has been missing the sweet spot, barreling the ball a lowly 7.2% of the time at a miserable 3.2-degree average launch angle. There is not a power profile here, but Hosmer should be better than his numbers have been to this point in the season with the hit tool and run production. At no ownership and just $2,900 on FanDuel or $4,300 on DraftKings, he is playable in stacks.
Outfielder Wil Myers is drawing more ownership on the blue site than across town, but he is in play in both spots tonight. He costs just $3,700 on the DraftKings slate and comes in at a discounted $2,600 on FanDuel. Myers is slashing .248/.323/.414 for the season, creating runs 5% better than average. He has just a .167 ISO but has hit eight home runs in his 235 plate appearances, adding five stolen bases to the tally for MLB DFS players. Myers is easily playable from this spot in the lineup.
Trent Grisham drops into the seventh spot in the Padres projected batting order. He will be unpopular and low-cost on both sites tonight, despite a solid .263/.347/.474 triple-slash with eight home runs and seven stolen bases in only 199 plate appearances. Grisham has a solid blend of mid-range power and speed, making him an appealing MLB DFS play in the right situations. He has a .211 ISO for the season and has created runs 28.0% better than average. He is an excellent option at the end of the batting order and his on-base skills lend to his upside as a wraparound play.
Catcher Victor Caratini rounds out the projected lineup and brings a touch of upside for just $2,800 and no popularity on the DraftKings slate. He is a switch-hitter, which helps him stay in the lineup regardless of late game situations. He is slashing .223/.322/.376 with six home runs and two stolen bases over just 183 plate appearances this season. Caratini has a .153 ISO and is creating runs 5% below average, but for the pricing and total lack of ownership, he is fine to mix and match even on the FanDuel slate if needed.
HR Call: Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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