The 14-game Friday MLB DFS slate looks poised to kick off Fourth of July weekend with a bang. There are not only great spots for daily fantasy baseball purposes, but there are simply some great baseball games and heated rivalries on the board for this weekend. The pitching slate for today’s contests looks particularly robust. Many teams have at worst the third option in their rotation going tonight, giving MLB DFS gamers a wide spectrum of upside and pricing from which to choose. The hitting slate has a few standout spots, but with the quality pitching up and down the board, landing on the right stacks may be a challenge this evening, as even the best teams in the game are susceptible to having the bats taken out of their hands by a pitcher on the right night. DraftKings and FanDuel have priced the pitching slate very fairly, leaving plenty of room to roster quality starters and strong bats in various MLB DFS stacks today.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all of the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh Rojas — 5.34
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 6.20
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 12.16
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 11.42
Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 9.44
Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 10.19
Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 11.97
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 6.92
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 8.05
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 8.19
Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 8.73
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 9.42
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 11.21
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 11.13
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 14.04
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 7.05
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 7.89
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 9.09
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 7.39
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 12.71
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 6.60
San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski — 5.55
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 6.87
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 12.97
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 17.79
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 11.56
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 8.47
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 8.79
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
This is an extremely balanced pitching slate through the middle of the board at least. Even with 28 teams in action, only Max Scherzer stands out as a truly dominant ace, but he draws a very tough matchup against the Dodgers and is a big step up in salary from the rest of the available options. Following Scherzer by talent would likely be Lance Lynn, who gains MLB DFS value from a premium matchup against dismal Detroit. Sonny Gray comes at a significant price discount, but there is a major question about how deep into the game he will pitch. The plateau at the mid-range becomes apparent quickly, as all of the pitchers are priced at markdowns from the level of top-end pitchers. Fifteen pitchers rank between a 4.9% and 3.1% chance of being the day’s top individual starter (per the FanDuel Top Pitchers Tool). With Scherzer at under 10% probability in that category, the field is clearly wide open. Additional options of note include Julio Urias, Kyle Gibson, Adrian Houser, Taijuan Walker and J.T. Brubaker.
Scherzer needs little introduction. He has thrown 88.1 innings in his 15 starts this season and is striking out 35.4% of hitters he faces. Scherzer has just a 6% walk rate and is pitching to a 3.23 xFIP and a 0.85 WHIP. He has an excellent 16.7% swinging strikes induced rate and a 32.2% CSW. He does allow a bit of premium contact from time to time, with a 20-degree average launch angle and a 9.9% barrel rate (24th percentile), but he makes up for it by largely avoiding hard hits and simply missing bats. Scherzer is excellent in any spot, but he will be facing a tough Dodgers lineup that is fifth-best in baseball with a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles is excellent creating runs in the split as well, they land 13% above average by WRC+ and they have a .170 team ISO and a 3.78% home run rate that both rank above average against righties. Scherzer is the top ranked pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool, in my personal model he slips below a few other options by raw median projection, but he appears to be very low-owned on the FanDuel slate, which overcomes any minor quibbles with projection. On DraftKings, Scherzer is slightly more popular because he is more affordable.
Lance Lynn is the top starter in my own pitching projections and the second-ranked option on the Top Pitchers Tool. He has been on-form, pitching to a 28.5% strikeout rate and a 3.82 xFIP with a 0.99 WHIP this season. Lynn has completed 78.2 innings in his 14 starts, after a minor blip following some injury woes that shortened his average starts, Lynn has gotten back to providing his reliable depth, though his most recent outing was shortened by rain, which may look like a concern to casual fans. Lynn sits in the 79th percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 90th in expected earned run average – traditional stats fans will point to the sparkling 2.06 actual ERA on the season, though the differential between that mark and his xFIP is where the truth lies. Lynn has avoided bad luck this season, but his contact metrics are not entirely sharp despite the strong expected slugging mark. He sits in just the 37th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 39th in average exit velocity and the 40th in barrel rate against. Regardless, he has a steady strikeout rate and provides an excellent shot at a win and quality start bonus, with the added upside of taking on one of baseball’s worst offenses. The opposing Tigers are second worst in the league with a 26.1% strikeout rate against righties this season. They have just a .151 ISO and a 3.20% home run rate that are both below average in the split, and they create runs 7% below average as a unit by WRC+. Lynn has a significant chance of being the night’s best starter and he is owned at just 10% on FanDuel and 23.4% on DraftKings in early projections.
Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing significant popularity across the industry, given the name recognition at price factor. Rodriguez is a very affordable fit this evening at just $7,400 on both sites. He will be in a pitcher’s park taking on a team that stands around the middle of the league in most categories against lefties. The Athletics active roster has a 3.80% home run rate that ranks 11th in the split, they create runs 2% better than average and carry a .167 team ISO. The team’s 23.3% strikeout rate sits exactly in the middle of baseball’s 30 teams. Rodriguez has a sharp 3.38 xFIP and he is striking out 27.4% of hitters while walking just 5.6% and inducing 11.1% swinging strikes. He has had major problems with opposing batting average on balls in play through the season however, and he is carrying an ugly 1.41 WHIP. Rodriguez has also not been working in the zone as frequently as one would like, despite the above average swinging strike rate he has a below average 28.6% CSW. Despite the bad fortune with hits and his strand rate, Rodriguez’ contact profile looks good. He is in the 75th percentile with a 35% hard-hit rate, his 7.5% barreled ball rate could be better, but it is above average in the 54th percentile. He has a 61st percentile expected slugging percentage against of .383 and is allowing a 68th percentile average exit velocity of just 87.9 mph. Rodriguez would be a better upside play if he were lower-owned, but the field is getting to him in significant shares given the talent at the bargain price. Getting different with bats will be a must when rostering Rodriguez.
A Texas – Seattle game is a non-traditional place to find MLB DFS pitching options, but both Gibson and Logan Gilbert are in play tonight. Gibson has a 3.91 xFIP and a 1.01 WHIP but is striking out just 20.9% of hitters over his 90.0 innings in 15 starts. Gibson has just an 18.3% strikeout average for his career, so he is unlikely to break through his personal ceiling, despite the matchup against the mediocre Mariners, a team that strikes out 25.9% against righties. Gibson is affordable and taking on a team that is average in power in the split and creates runs 9% below average against righties. He costs $7,800 on DraftKings and is in play as a low-owned low-upside steady floor play at SP2. On FanDuel he costs $8,200 and is drawing very little ownership, though that is understandable given the lack of extreme upside.
On the other side of the contest, Gilbert will be facing a Rangers team that is ninth-worst at a 24.9% strikeout rate against righties this year. They have a below average .155 ISO, an average 3.67% home run rate and create runs 10% worse than average by WRC+. Gilbert is a premium prospect who has made a relatively strong debut. He has a 26.2% strikeout rate over his first 36.0 innings in eight starts. He is inducing a 12.6% swinging strike rate and has a 4.18 xFIP and just a 5.4% walk rate. Gilbert has allowed too much premium contact, which could easily get him in trouble against the two or three power hitters in the Rangers lineup. He is yielding a 10.1% barreled ball rate, a 19.1-degree average launch angle and a 45.5% hard-hit rate, as well as an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph. Gilbert is risky but interesting for $7,200 on FanDuel, where he is projected for less than 10% ownership. On DraftKings he is drawing more popularity given the bargain basement price of $6,600.
Coors Field
Coors Field is on the slate once again tonight, though this time it appears that both teams will be appropriately owned at high levels by the public. The Rockies and Cardinals both rank well on the Top Stacks Tool for the night, but they are drawing toward negative leverage on both sites (things are close to even on FanDuel but will likely slip approaching lock). Getting to Coors Field is always an exercise in roster flexibility, with so much of the field clicking on these bats it is difficult to put them together in unique ways without exploring some of the lower owned teams as second stacks or getting different with one’s pitching selections. There is always the decision to undercut the field on the Coors spot deliberately, which could prove advisable on such a broad slate with 26 other teams from which to choose bats. However, the wealth of affordable pitching options that project similarly and will be low-owned seems to help enough with roster construction that getting away from Coors is not a must. Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong stand out as low-owned Cardinals with upside from the bottom of the batting order. On the Rockies side, Yonathan Daza hits well and is well under 10% projected ownership on FanDuel, while Charlie Blackmon is priced out of popularity at $5,800 on DraftKings. Brendan Rodgers makes an interesting late lineup play for low ownership and low salary on both sites.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are listed near the top of the board on the Top Stacks Tool for both sites and, appealingly, they are coming in with positive leverage marks on both sites. Minnesota is on the road to face Brady Singer in Kansas City. Singer is pitching to a 4.12 xFIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate and a bumpy 1.49 WHIP. He has done well with avoiding premium contact this season, logging just a 4.8% barreled ball rate and a 6.5-degree average launch angle with a 34.6% hard-hit rate and 87.2 mph average exit velocity allowed. He has a 50.9% ground ball rate on the season, and he has been good at keeping the ball in the yard. Still, the Twins have baseball’s fourth-best home run rate against right-handed pitching at 4.28% and they have an excellent .187 team ISO while striking out just 22.7% of the time and creating runs 3% above average. Every Twins hitter is projected below 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and they are not prohibitively expensive. It is easy to roster stacks that include Josh Donaldson, Trevor Larnach, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. Hitters like Andrelton Simmons and Luis Arraez offer limited MLB DFS upside, but their quality hitting helps turn the lineup over at the top and bottom.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/2/2021″ team=”twins”]
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays lead the slate in the power index above, there are strong chances for an outburst of home runs in their matchup against the Blue Jays and Alek Manoah, particularly given the minor league stadium in which the Blue Jays are still playing home games. Manoah has made six starts and has a 4.47 xFIP and a 26.8% strikeout rate while yielding an ugly 10.4% barreled ball rate and a 16.8-degree average launch angle. He has been spared major outbursts by limiting hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, leading to a 58th percentile expected slugging percentage against, but the barrel rate does not jibe well with his 8.9% walk rate and limited strikeouts. The Rays are ranked sixth in baseball with a 4.16% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season. Tampa Bay strikes out at a heavy 25.9% clip in the split, but they have a .180 team ISO and create runs 7% better than average. This is a good offense and only one hitter is drawing heavy ownership.
Leadoff man Brandon Lowe is that popular hitter. He is slashing just .205/.316/.426 on the season but he has hit 16 home runs and has a .221 ISO while creating runs 7% better than average by WRC+. Lowe has demonstrated a much better ability to get on base through his career than he has shown to this point, and his hit tool is slightly better. However, Lowe costs just $3,200 on FanDuel and is exploding to the top of the ownership board and nearly a quarter of public lineups on the blue site. With a $4,700 price tag on DraftKings, Lowe is popular, but at a more user-friendly 16%. It is difficult to leave the power upside out of stacks, and the balance of the Rays lineup is low-owned to the point that it should be easy to offset Lowe’s popularity.
Wander Franco will be the top talent to debut from any farm system this season. He arrived on the scene with a home run in his first game but has slashed just .194/.306/.323 over his first 36 plate appearances as he tries to find his footing in the Show. Franco has long projected as a five-tool player, coming in with plus power and speed grades and plus-plus grades for his bat in traditional scouting metrics. He rocketed through the Rays system, hitting seven home runs, slashing .315/.367/.586 with a .272 ISO and posting a 148 WRC+ in Triple-A. This is a star in waiting who costs just $3,000 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.The Rays have been very good through the season despite the relative deflation of the Randy Arozarena balloon. It was simply unfair of the fantasy baseball public to expect him to continue the ridiculous production that he put up in the postseason last year. Arozarena has been good this season; he just is not the superstar that some seemed to expect. He is slashing .261/.340//.418 on the season and he has just a .158 ISO with 10 home runs in his 329 plate appearances. He has stolen 11 bases and creates runs at a clip 13% above average. Arozarena costs just $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings.
Austin Meadows is a deadly bat in the middle of the Rays’ lineup against right-handed pitching. With the contact profile that Manoah has yielded, Meadows’ 10.8% barrel rate and 22.4-degree average launch angle play extremely well for home run upside. This is a hitter who has a swing tailor-made for the modern approach to hitting baseballs over the fence. Meadows is slashing .239/.330/.484 on the season with a .246 ISO and 16 home runs in 327 plate appearances. He has created runs 24% better than average this year but will be under 10% ownership on both sites despite reasonable pricing. It would be a mistake to leave Meadows out when building one Rays stack, when building many he should not be skipped frequently.
The projected Rays lineup includes Ji-Man Choi at first base and in the No. 5 hole. Choi has made 108 plate appearances this season and is slashing .261/.370/.413 with all three of his home runs coming against right-handed pitching. For his career, Choi has a .215 ISO against righties and just a .113 mark against fellow lefties. In his first relatively full season in 2019, Choi hit 19 home runs in 487 plate appearances and posted a .198 ISO for the season. The year before he had a .242 ISO and 10 home runs in just 221 plate appearances. He is not expensive and makes for a steady play in lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Manuel Margot is inexpensive at $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,800 across town. He has settled into a steady but relatively average career, providing some power and speed upside as well as flashy glove work in the outfield. Margot is slashing .248/.297/.398 on the season and he has hit eight home runs and stolen nine bases. Given the combination of mid-range power and good speed, Margot is a quality discount play at no ownership.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/2/2021″ team=”rays”]
Joey Wendle comes in with second and third base eligibility on DraftKings and switches spots in the middle of the infield on FanDuel where he is a shortstop instead of a second baseman in the combination. Wendle performs well in the split, and he has been hitting well in his 258 plate appearances this year. He is slashing .276/.341/.457 with a .181 ISO, seven home runs and five stolen bases. He has created runs 20% better than average by WRC+ and is quietly a quality producer from later in the lineup for the Rays.
Mike Zunino and his thunderous power will be available at under 2% ownership on both sites. He has 18 home runs this season with a gargantuan .353 ISO and a .563 slugging percentage, but the front end of his triple slash is a .210 batting average and a .296 on-base percentage. Zunino also strikes out at a ludicrous 38.6% rate, if he could make more reliable contact he would be one of the top options in the game. He sits in the 75th percentile of hard-hit rate, the 81st percentile of average exit velocity and the 100th percentile in barrel rate – a completely bananas 28.4%. Zunino’s sample includes 95 batted ball events, which does not qualify for the Statcast leaderboard without allowing for the smaller sample. Were he to qualify, his barrel rate would lead baseball by 3 full percentage points. Zunino’s 28.4% barrels per batted ball event is greatly outpacing the 25.4% rate that Shohei Ohtani is putting up in a much larger 181 batted ball event sample.
Brett Phillips provides interesting stolen base upside from the bottom of the batting order but needs to improve upon his current .314 on-base percentage to become a truly viable wraparound play. Phillips is slashing just .199/.314/.315 on the season with three home runs in his 174 plate appearances though, coming in at 16% below average in run creation. Phillips is fine as a mix-in play in low exposures, and his minimum price on DraftKings and $2,100 cost on FanDuel add to the appeal.
HR Call: Austin Meadows — Tampa Bay Rays
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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