Friday’s big 14-game MLB DFS affair is absolutely loaded compared to a seven-game contest that rapidly became a five-game board last night. The fascinating Friday slate provides a wealth of good spots for bats, though finding the right arms to trust is going to be a challenge. While there are several talented starters in good matchups, there are question marks about most and major public popularity on any of the less mysterious options. There are talented starters taking the mound today, but the vast majority fall into the low-upside third or fourth starter in the rotation tier. Given the dearth of top-end aces on the slate, this becomes a good day to pay up for bats and spread out to capture a wide range of outcomes on both sides of the game.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
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Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 6.42
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 17.51
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 5.15
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 12.01
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 12.79
Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 15.30
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 7.33
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon — 6.46
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 11.11
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 13.63
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 10.60
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 15.15
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 14.81
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 6.50
Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura — 3.68
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 11.62
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 12.13
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 20.67
Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 10.87
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 5.62
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 5.20
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 17.61
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 8.07
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 6.14
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 19.63
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 7.66
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 11.63
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 5.68
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate sees a makeup opportunity for Taijuan Walker who projects well once again in his rescheduled matchup against the Pirates. Alek Manoah is also making a start that was pushed back by a day, though the Rays are a tougher opponent than he would have faced yesterday. Mid-range options abound on this slate, including Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb both in good spots against the Marlins and Mariners respectively. Struggling Kenta Maeda is inexpensive on both sites and has an ideal matchup against the Tigers, while Cole Irvin and J.T. Brubaker look like useful options as well. The balance of the board becomes a progressively worse proposition. Many of the available arms profile as low-strikeout ground-ball specialists, including Dallas Keuchel who will be facing an Orioles team that is sneaky-good against lefties. Brad Keller is a similar pitcher in a similar spot, though neither is a particularly strong looking MLB DFS option tonight.
Of all the starters on the board, Walker is in the best form and likely has a very solid floor in a start against the Pirates. He has a 25.9% strikeout rate over his 85 innings in 15 starts this season. He has pitched to a 3.82 xFIP and a 1.01 WHIP though he is inducing just a 9.3% swinging strike rate. Walker has a steady 29.9% CSW 7.3% barrel rate, 40% hard-hit rate and a 12.3-degree average launch angle to opposing hitters. He has largely been sharp keeping the ball in the park in 2021. Walker has just six home runs this season, a 0.64 HR/9 rate. He is facing a Pirates team that creates runs 15% worse than average against right-handed pitching this season. Pittsburgh has a league-worst 2.45% home run rate in the split and just a .128 collective ISO, though they have the noteworthy ability to limit strikeouts; Pittsburgh’s active roster sits second-best in baseball with a 21.6% strikeout rate against righties. The Pirates have deployed a lineup that has a few additional potential strikeouts on its back end in recent games, but ultimately this is just drawing one of the slate’s more talented pitchers against one of the league’s worst offenses. Walker costs $9,500 on FanDuel and $9,000 on DraftKings.
Manoah was covered in this space yesterday, although it was for a better matchup against the Orioles. In his delayed start today, he will take on a dangerous Rays squad that ranks fourth in baseball with a 4.17% home run rate in the split. The Rays have a collective .182 ISO and create runs 7% better than average by WRC+ in the split, though they do provide a meaty strikeout target. The Tampa Bay active roster strikes out at a 26% rate against right-handed pitching this season and Manoah has been sitting down hitters at a 29.1% rate over his first seven starts. That combination makes for an interesting but unsafe play, Manoah is drawing significant popularity on DraftKings where he jumped slightly in price to $7,000. On FanDuel he will be under 10% projected ownership for his $10,300 price tag, which could give him a whiff of upside potential.
Morton has been in strong form in his first year in Atlanta. He has completed 92 innings in 17 starts and has a 27.6% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate, while allowing hitters to barrel the baseball at a 5.5% rate. Morton has dialed up a 3.45 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP to this point in the season and he is inducing a sharp 13% swinging strike rate while compiling a 31.3% CSW. He allows an average launch angle of 7.8 degrees that is not conducive to home runs against, particularly when combined with just a 34.6% hard-hit rate and an 88.2 mph average exit velocity allowed. Morton sees a bump in this start by drawing the Marlins, a team that is below average in all offensive team categories. Miami is the sixth-worst lineup in baseball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they create runs 10% below average. The active roster has just a 3.07% home run rate and a combined .139 ISO in the split. There are talented individual bats in the Marlins lineup, and they can be frisky at times, but the odds are strongly in favor of Morton putting up a solid start for the money on both MLB DFS sites. He costs $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,600 on DraftKings. Morton should not be skipped, but undercutting the field and spreading out pitching shares across some of the many relatively similar options seems more sound for GPP play.
Cobb has a very similar matchup to Morton, though his opponent has more power upside. The Mariners are fourth worst in baseball with a 25.9% strikeout rate against righties and they create runs 11% worse than average, though their 3.67% home run rate and .160 team ISO are both in the middle of the league. The Mariners are not a good baseball team, but Cobb is a pitcher who has been operating above his career norms throughout the season’s first half. Cobb has been a different pitcher in 2021, seemingly without making any significant changes to his pitch mix or overall arsenal. He is throwing his sinker slightly less and far more effectively than in recent seasons, and he uses the splitter slightly more often, but they profile the same as he has thrown them in seasons past. Cobb has taken his swinging strike rate from 9.8% last year and 10.5% in 2019 all the way to 12% this season, and he has a solid 31.1% CSW that is several points higher than he has averaged. He is pitching to a 2.77 xFIP and a 1.22 WHIP, striking out 27.3% of hitters and walking 7.1% in the sample, though he allows a 40.5% hard-hit rate and an 89.2 mph average exit velocity that sits in the 42nd percentile. Cobb benefits significantly from missing barrels, opponents square him up just 4.3% of the time and he has a 0.4-degree average launch angle, so most premium contact is made on balls that are hit directly into the dirt. Cobb is inducing a 92nd percentile chase rate this season, something about his stuff is simply working more effectively than it has been, whether that is a product of luck or some indiscernible skill change is unclear. He costs $8.800 on FanDuel and is coming in under 10% projected ownership despite the discount. On DraftKings he will be at similar ownership though he is priced at $9,800, a much more difficult ask.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/9/2021″ team=”twins”]
Maeda found his footing for at least a night in his most recent start against the Royals. Maeda posted a season high 10 strikeouts in his six shutout innings, yielding just two hits and a walk along the way. The form was a welcome relief from a pitcher who had otherwise looked lost through most of the first half. Maeda will be looking to extend the good run of innings in his home start against the Tigers, one of the better spots on the pitching slate. Even with the success in his most recent start, Maeda is at a 4.04 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP for the season, striking out just 23% of hitters, which puts him around league average. The xFIP and expected ERA are better than Maeda’s bumpy 5.03 actual ERA, which could distract box score watchers, under the hood it looks like Maeda has been somewhat unlucky on contact this season, suffering from a .330 batting average on balls in play against. He was lucky in 2020 with a .208 mark in the category, but he is typically good at limiting hard contact and inducing soft contact, in addition to getting a good amount of swing and miss. This season Maeda has been slightly below his recent seasons with a still good 13.1% swinging strike rate. Last year he was at an excellent 17.2% mark, but he was in the mid 14% range the two seasons prior. Taking advantage of Maeda’s low price while possible is a good idea when he is in a plus-plus matchup. The opposing Tigers are the second-worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 26.3% strikeout rate. They create runs 7% worse than average and have a sub-par 3.13% home run rate and .148 team ISO in the split. Maeda has all the ability needed to keep this lineup in check and rack up another strong strikeout performance, for just $7,300 he is underpriced and under-owned on the blue site, at $7,100 he is drawing appropriate popularity on the two-pitcher site.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a popular team on both sites, taking on Jorge Lopez in Baltimore’s offense-friendly park. The White Sox lineup is relatively inexpensive on the FanDuel slate, while only the top three hitters come at a premium across town. The lineup will be facing a right-handed pitcher who has just a 21.2% strikeout rate and a targetable 10.2% walk rate on the season. Lopez is pitching to a 4.34 xFIP with a 1.60 WHIP while inducing just 8.6% swinging strikes. He allows a 9.5% barrel rate and a 43.9% hard-hit rate with a 90.2 mph average exit velocity against. This is a pitcher who is extremely prone to yielding well struck baseballs, though he benefits from allowing just a 5.7-degree average launch angle and inducing a 48.3% ground ball rate. Chicago’s active roster is surprisingly lacking in power against righties through this point in the season, they have just a 2.76% home run rate and a .147 ISO in the split. They are above average with just a 23% strikeout rate, and they create runs 8% better than average this season however, this is a team that is good with sequential hitting and creating runs on both sides of the ball and their power is not absent, it has merely been dormant. Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu and Brian Goodwin will all be popular at the top of the lineup, but Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn are both under-owned for their power potential and upside across the industry. Stringing together White Sox stacks is not the most unique approach to this slate, but it is one of the more likely spots to see some MLB DFS point scoring upside.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/9/2021″ team=”orioles”]
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are under-owned often and that appears to be the case once again tonight. Oakland will be taking on Jordan Lyles on the road in Texas and their bats appear primed for a big night. The projected Athletics lineup leaves something to be desired with both Tony Kemp and Elvis Andrus at the top of it, though Kemp has gotten on base at a steady .372 clip for the season and is creating runs 21% better than average. The lineup gets in gear around Matt Olson and his extreme power upside and continues through the heart of the order with Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy. Depending on where he lands in the lineup, Seth Brown can provide sneaky left-handed power upside on any given day. Getting to A’s stacks is easy with their pricing and they will be unpopular throughout the industry, making for a prime GPP play.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies look like an excellent option for upside on this evening’s slate. Philadelphia is in Boston for an interleague series against the Red Sox, adding a designated hitter to their lineup. Philadelphia draws Garrett Richards in the hitter’s park, creating an excellent opportunity. He has a 4.93 xFIP and just a 17.3% strikeout rate with a 1.68 WHIP. Richards is walking 10.6% of hitters and allowing a 7.8% barrel rate with a whopping 50.7% hard-hit rate and a 91.8 mph average exit velocity against, numbers that absolutely scream power upside for opposing hitters. The Phillies have several lethal power bats in their lineup as well as a few premium hitters who both get on base and drive the ball. The stack will be more popular on DraftKings but only two hitters are bubbling to over 20% public popularity. The lineup is trending toward positive leverage on the FanDuel slate.
The projected lineup kicks off with Odubel Herrera, who is slashing .241/.292/.390 with six home runs and a .149 ISO over 251 plate appearances. Herrera is an inexpensive option at $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings and he will be low owned on both sites. He has limited appeal with the low on-base percentage, but he does add some stolen base upside (4) with his minor power. Herrera is primarily in play for the cost and lineup slot ahead of the top-end hitters in the Phillies stack.
Jean Segura fills three positions on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings he lands at just second base but costs only $3,300. Segura will be very popular on that site but comes in at only around 10% ownership despite all the positional flexibility on FanDuel. Segura is slashing .321/.373/.442 for the season and he is creating runs 24% better than average. He has just three home runs and a .121 ISO in his 244 plate appearances, but Segura is a significant cog in the Phillies offensive machinery.
J.T. Realmuto is one of the best hitters at his position in all of baseball. Realmuto is slashing .261/.369/.437 with a .176 ISO while creating runs 22% better than average this season. He costs just $3,300 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, a discount that makes him popular on both sites, though his DraftKings ownership far exceeds his popularity where catchers are not required. Realmuto is ultimately a better option for the lower raw popularity on FanDuel, but he is in play and a primary part of Phillies stacks on both sites.
Bryce Harper is the Phillies most costly bat on FanDuel and the second-most expensive option in the lineup on DraftKings. He has hit 15 home runs and has a .247 ISO while slashing .281/.382/.528 this season. Harper has created runs 44% better than average and he provides strong upside from the left side of the plate in this matchup. Harper has a 17.9% barrel rate that sits in the 95th percentile in baseball, his .604 expected slugging percentage is in the 97th percentile and he has a 44.7% hard-hit rate. Harper is an excellent target for power upside on the slate and he will be at or around 15% ownership on both sites.
Andrew McCutchen has provided steady upside throughout the season despite a clear decline in his hit tool over the last few years. He is slashing .233/.351/.448 with a .215 ISO and still creates runs 18% better than average. He has hit 15 home runs this season, focusing on premium contact and driving the ball, as well as his excellent on-base skills. For juts $3,200 on DraftKings McCutchen is far too cheap for his talent and upside as a part of five-man stacks. He is less popular on FanDuel where he comes in with a $3,400 price tag. It is easy to double or triple the field’s exposure without going completely overboard on McCutchen shares tonight.
Rhys Hoskins leads the Phillies with 20 home runs this season. He is the team’s most expensive bat on DraftKings, where he costs $5,500. On FanDuel he comes in at $3,800 and he is drawing less than 5% public popularity. Hoskins has upside against a pitcher with Richards’ contact profile. Hoskins has a 14.8% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard-hit rate this season.
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Travis Jankowski comes in at the bare minimum on both sites yet he will be essentially unowned. Jankowski has made 41 plate appearances this season and is slashing .323/.447/.484 in the meaningless sample. He has one home run and three stolen bases in the limited opportunity, flashing some MLB DFS upside. Jankowski has had two significant seasons in the Majors, in 2016 he made 383 plate appearances for the Padres and stole 30 bases. Two years later he stole 24 bags in 387 plate appearances. Jankowski has a limited bat and virtually no power upside, but he can provide some sneaky quality if he gets on base a few times.
Alec Bohm rounds out the lineup with his .237/.289/.329 triple slash. He has five home runs and four stolen bases this season, posting a .092 ISO and a WRC+ 30% below average. He is an upside prospect, but he is yet to fully find his footing at this level. Bohm has upside in the future, but capturing it in the current form is the trick. At low cost and low ownership, he is worth a few dart throws at the back end of late lineup Phillies stacks, but he is less functional for wrap-around plays.
HR Call: Aaron Judge — New York Yankees
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