MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 7/3/21

The Saturday main slate seems the exact opposite of yesterday’s robust MLB DFS slate that was loaded with quality pitching options through the mid-range. The Saturday evening affair features just one good pitcher, followed by a mixed bag of mediocrity and overperformance. With the addition of a Coors Field game on the slate, this has all appearances of being entirely about the bats. Getting to the Coors bats, along with the top pitcher on the board, is going to be an extraordinarily popular construction with MLB DFS picks across the industry on this slate, embracing risk is going to be a requirement for unique fantasy baseball lineup builds on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.


Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Live Before Lock, where we will review all of the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.


Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 3.95

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 7.20

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 7.13

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 19.34

Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 12.70

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 26.52

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 14.40

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 13.53

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 9.67

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 21.90

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 13.99

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 13.78

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 11.77

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 8.42


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Fantasy Baseball Picks Rankings DraftKings FanDUel Yahoo CBS ESPN leagues today July 3 2021 Saturday Astros Giants Indians Cardinals Dodgers Angles Rockies Red Sox Nationals expert vegas betting odds lines picks predictions best bets

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

What if they scheduled seven baseball games but only invited one real pitcher? For MLB DFS purposes, that would make Clayton Kershaw a very popular man this evening. The slate is topped by the Dodgers’ veteran lefty ace, while Kershaw is followed on the board by luminaries including Marco Gonzales, Alex Cobb, Garrett Richards, Jake Odorizzi, Cole Irvin, and Jordan Lyles. The slate gets even worse after that list, which would normally be a group of pitchers to target with bats. Someone on the slate other than Kershaw will have a good start — there are relatively good projections for several of these options — but this is in no way a good pitching slate.

Kershaw is by far the most talented pitcher available on this slate. Accordingly, he costs essentially 1.5 times as much as any other option on the FanDuel slate. To make their game interesting, DraftKings has to punch up the pricing of some of the secondary starters on the board, so the salary spectrum is slightly less stark on that site, but Kershaw is still far more expensive than the other options. The southpaw is pitching to a 30.5% strikeout rate over his first 102.1 innings in 17 starts this season. He has an excellent 2.85 xFIP and a 0.98 WHIP, walking a mere 4.4% of hitters and inducing 16.5% swinging strikes with a 32.6% CSW%. Kershaw has been excellent through the season. His barreled-ball rate sits at 6.5% and he yields an acceptable 10.4-degree average launch angle with just a 38.2% hard-hit rate and an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. The opposing Nationals are a top-heavy lineup and sit in the top half of the league with a 23% strikeout rate against lefties. The team creates runs 7% better than average in the split, but they have a below-average .152 ISO and just an average 3.47% home run rate against southpaws. As the only premium option at his position, Kershaw will be explosively popular on this slate, but there are few other reasons to avoid him.

No. 1 on many boards is likely Alex Cobb of the Angels. Cobb has pitched well this season. In truth, he has performed above his head if his career track record is any indicator. Cobb has a sparkling 2.79 xFIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate. He is inducing 12.3% swinging strikes and walking 7.5% of hitters, putting together a 1.30 WHIP. The righty has allowed just a 4.9% barreled-ball rate and an average launch angle of a mere 1.3 degrees — even hard-hit balls go directly into the dirt or are hit on a line. Cobb is inducing a 95th percentile chase rate in opposing hitters and sits in the 71st percentile by expected slugging percentage. There is no arguing that he has been a quality option time and again over his 11 starts this season, though the average depth that he provides is a question. Cobb draws the frisky Orioles offense, a team that has a 3.51% home run rate against righties this season (18th in the league). They are around average with a .164 team ISO and a 23.7% strikeout rate in the split, though they have created runs 11% below average by collective WRC+. Cobb is likely one of the safer bets from among the also-ran pitching options on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though he is at a much friendlier price tag on FanDuel.

Seattle’s Marco Gonzales has not been good this season. The southpaw has completed 47.2 innings in nine starts and has an unsightly 4.79 xFIP and a 1.36 WHIP with just a 20.8% strikeout rate. Gonzales is inducing a mere 9.8% swinging strikes and a low 27% CSW%. The lefty is allowing a whopping 17% barreled-ball rate and an ugly 19.2-degree average launch angle while yielding a 45.4% hard-hit rate and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity. That profile is primed to allow home run power. There is no way around it. Gonzales’ primary appeal is the matchup. The Rangers have just a .138 team ISO against lefties, and they are fourth-worst in baseball with a 3.12% home run rate in the split. They’re also creating runs 10% worse than average. The team strikes out around league average at 23.5% against southpaws, but with a slate this bad, we are, in a way, looking for safety at SP2 rather than major upside. Gonzales may be able to provide a dash of the former, though there is little expectation of the latter.

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San Francisco Giants

The surprising Giants offense has been on a roll through the season’s first half. San Francisco, seemingly out of nowhere, has the league’s best home run rate against both hands this season — 4.41% against righties, 4.70% against lefties. The team has created runs better than average against all pitching, though their strikeout rates have increased over seasons past. The team is unlikely to be challenged tonight, drawing right-hander Jake Faria, who has made just one start this season but has a 4.86 xFIP over his 178.1-inning career. Faria has struck out 21% of Major League hitters in that sample, and he has been among the league’s worst in most Statcast categories for any season with enough data. In 2018, he sat in just the sixth percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 14th percentile in barrel rate. The pitcher strikes out very few hitters and yields plenty of premium contact. The Giants’ offense should be in a very strong spot.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/3/2021″ team=”giants”]

The San Francisco lineup gets started with Lamonte Wade Jr., who is slashing .269/.347/.529 for the season while creating runs 40% better than average across his 119 plate appearances. Wade has a .260 ISO and has hit seven home runs while stealing two bases in that small sample. He has been excellent when he is at the plate. Wade has never truly profiled for that much consistent power, nor does he possess a sharp hit tool, so expectations should be tempered. However, there is no issue with clicking Wade in atop a Giants stack, given his spot in the lineup and his current run of production.

Mike Yastrzemski has 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances this season and is slashing .228/.331/.474 with a .246 ISO. He’s creating runs 21% better than average so far. The left-handed outfielder has one of the better marks in today’s home run model in the matchup against Faria. At just $3,200 on FanDuel, he makes an interesting, if somewhat popular play. On DraftKings, the $5,000 price tag may be enough to keep heavy public ownership at bay. Yastrzemski has been a solid major leaguer since bursting onto the scene with 21 home runs in 411 plate appearances in 2019. He hit 10 home runs in his 225 opportunities last season and has been a mainstay for the Giants lineup and MLB DFS stacks with this team.

Buster Posey’s renaissance year rolls on. The former star is slashing .328/.419/.551 and fills catcher eligibility on DraftKings while slotting in at first base on FanDuel. Posey has hit 12 home runs in his 229 plate appearances this season, and he is carrying a .222 ISO while creating runs a massive 66% better than average. He has simply been excellent, but he is still not a go-to option for the public. Posey costs just $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings, making him an excellent play on this slate.

Lefty outfielder Alex Dickerson provides some pop and home run upside for a low investment in the cleanup spot. Dickerson is priced at just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. He has hit seven home runs in his 172 plate appearances so far this season and profiles as the team’s most likely home run hitter in my model today. Dickerson is carrying just a .172 ISO and creating runs 8% below average this season. Dickerson has an encouraging 10.3% barreled-ball rate with a 16.6-degree average launch angle on the season. However, his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are slightly lower than we would like to see. There is inexpensive upside in getting the lefty bat into stacks.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.

Shortstop Brandon Crawford is another veteran having an excellent year for the Giants. The lefty has made 271 plate appearances and is slashing .256/.339/.525 with 17 home runs and six stolen bases on the year. The home run mark is already just four shy of Crawford’s career-high, though he has long been a player from whom we could expect 12 or 15 home runs per season. Crawford has simply been a different hitter this season, though the trend may have begun last year. In 2020, Crawford’s barreled-ball rate leapt from 5.4% to 9.4%, jumping again this year to 15.8% — a 94th percentile mark. Crawford has a 15.1-degree average launch angle this season, up 3 degrees from last year’s mark that had piled 4 degrees on top of 2019’s number already. There are clear changes to the swing plane, and they are yielding the desired results. In addition to the home runs, Crawford’s .565 expected slugging percentage is good for the 93rd percentile in baseball. Among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Crawford’s xwOBACON (expected weighted on-base average on contact) of .466 ranks 25th in the league, behind a list of players that make up some of the game’s most lethal offensive options.

Right-handed Wilmer Flores costs just $2,400 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. The veteran has made 216 plate appearances this season, hitting eight home runs and slashing .264/.333/.440. Flores is by no means a star, but he has long been a serviceable plug-in option at cost. He is better when matched up against a lefty arm, but there is upside in a low-owned low-cost Flores, particularly when he provides positional flexibility, as we get with his second and third base eligibility on FanDuel.

Donovan Solano slot into the seven spot with his quality hit tool. Solano is down at a .267/.319/.378 triple-slash so far this season, over 191 plate appearances. The infielder slots in at second base and shortstop on FanDuel and just second base on DraftKings, and he will be at a low cost on the former site. Solano is a $2,300 investment there. He costs $2,000 more across town on DraftKings, making this a very different play from site to site. Solano hits for very little power. He has three home runs and just a .110 ISO on the season. If he is not getting on base via his hit tool, there is not tremendous upside.

Lefty Steven Duggar is slashing a robust .319/.395/.549 with six home runs and a .229 ISO over 162 plate appearances this season, providing sneaky upside if he is hitting at the end of the lineup for $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. Duggar is creating runs 59% better than average so far this season, and he has a well-regarded skillset, despite taking time to develop at age 27. Duggar has 60-grade speed and 55-grade raw power in traditional scouting, lending credence to the notion that this is not a total surprise. The upside is there. The public ownership is not.

HR Call: Mike Yastrzemski — San Francisco Giants

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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