MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Lineups

After a wet and wild Wednesday, MLB DFS gamers are dealing with a split slate Thursday that features a seven-game main slate in the evening. There are weather concerns around the Dodgers – Nationals game in Washington D.C., and every game not under a roof has at least a minor chance of rain but not to a concerning level. The slate is top heavy with the two best arms in baseball this season both taking the mound, while the hitting slate appears somewhat robust with a handful of teams at the back end of their rotations and a Coors Field game on the board. The Coors game is creating several interesting angles on the slate, including the featured stack with a lot of appealing MLB DFS picks that appear to be going under-owned on DraftKings and FanDuel for the ballpark. There are plenty of options for spreading out GPP ownership shares once again on this slate, though the stark pitching board will dictate popular roster constructions.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all of the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 5.61

Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 5.33

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.12

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 5.53

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 8.64

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 14.42

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 12.33

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura — 12.89

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 4.39

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 1.70

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 6.77

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 8.25

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 7.40

Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 3.57

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The Thursday pitching slate is heavy at the top but includes a few reasonable options from the mid-range as well. With both Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes making starts tonight, there are two clear-cut options at the top of the board on both sites. The two aces are pitching spectacularly well this season and are expensive on the slate for the productivity. They will be popular but should be rostered heavily. The slate also includes Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson and Adam Wainwright in interesting matchups. Wainwright ranks surprisingly well on the Top Pitchers Tool for a starter going at Coors Field, and he will be under-owned when comparing that mark to his probability of success. Luis Castillo has been pitching more like himself of late, but he will be in a challenging matchup against the Padres, and he is drawing ownership for the discounted price.

DeGrom has been pitching at an otherworldly level this season. He has completed 78.0 innings in 13 starts, he finished a full 6.0 innings the last time out after two starts that were shortened due to some injury hiccups. DeGrom has struck out 44.5% of hitters through the season thus far and is walking just 4%. He has a 1.76 xFIP and a 0.53 WHIP while inducing an amazing 21.3% swinging strikes. He has a 34.9% CSW and just a 34.3% hard-hit rate with a 6.4% barrel rate on the year. He is facing a quality Braves lineup that has a fair amount of power, Atlanta has a 4.32% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, second-best in baseball. The Braves active roster carries a .188 team ISO in the split, and they create runs slightly above average by WRC+. Atlanta is below average with a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, suggesting the potential for a significant upside game from deGrom, despite the quality opponent. At $11,500, deGrom is drawing significant ownership on both sites. It is important to consider the popularity of the value bats that will be popular alongside the expensive starter.

If anyone in the league has numbers that come close to rivaling deGrom, it is likely Burnes. He has been simply spectacular this season. He has a 1.98 xFIP and a 0.92 WHIP for the season, inducing a 17% swinging strike rate and compiling a 35% CSW. He is striking out 38.9% of hitters and walking just 4.7% this season, while allowing just a 3.1% barrel rate. Burnes is allowing just a 28.4% hard-hit rate and an average launch angle of 8.1 degrees, suppressing opposing power when he is not simply striking hitters out. The power should not be an issue tonight against the lowly Pirates. Pittsburgh is second-worst in the league with just a 2.42% home run rate against righties this season. Pittsburgh has been near the top of the league against both hands all season, they currently have a 21.7% strikeout rate in the split, though they have just a .127 team ISO and create runs 14% worse than average. This is simply a bad offense, and they are creating a major projection bubble beneath Burnes.

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On the other side of deGrom’s contest, Atlanta’s Ian Anderson is projecting well and only drawing mid-range public attention. The upside to a win is perhaps in question, given that his offense will be facing the best pitcher in the game, but Anderson has enough supporting talent to put up a quality number for the low cost on both sites. He is at just $8,400 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings. Anderson should be more popular than he as an SP2 at that price, his ownership on the blue site has room to expand as well, it would be easy to exceed the field’s ownership on the upside play on the one-pitcher site. Anderson has been solid through 2021. He has thrown 81.2 innings in 15 starts, striking out hitters at a 26.1% rate and posting a 3.32 xFIP with a 1.18 WHIP. He induces a strong 12.3% swinging strike rate, though he does not throw enough called strikes, compiling a below average CSW of 28.6%. Anderson has yielded a 9.6% barrel rate that could be lower, but he is excellent at keeping the ball in the yard with just a 4.5-degree average launch angle and an 88.0 mph average exit velocity against. The Mets are fifth worst in baseball with just a 2.99% home run rate against righties this season. They have a .140 team ISO and create runs 9% below average in the split and strike out around the league average at 24%. Anderson has upside, even if a win is difficult to forecast.

Valdez is taking on an Indians team that ranks in the middle of the league with a 3.66% home run rate against left-handed pitching. Cleveland has a .162 team ISO and a 22.8% strikeout rate in the split that stands slightly above average. Cleveland has been creating runs a surprising 15% worse than average against lefties this season however, a mark that stands third from the bottom in the league against southpaws. Valdez has completed 38.1 innings in his six starts, striking out just 22.6% of hitters but compiling a 3.04 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP. He walks just 5.8% of hitters and induces 11.2% swinging strikes and has an excellent contact profile. He is allowing just a 3.7% barrel rate and a -6.2-degree average launch angle, meaning that even when balls are hit hard it is directly into the ground. Valdez has a 71% ground ball rate on the season. The upside is somewhat questionable at the price however, Valdez seems likely to put up a strong start and not get beat up by Cleveland bats, but the team does not strike out to a heavy degree and Valdez is not a strikeout arm. For $10,200 on the FanDuel slate and $9,800 on DraftKings, there may not be enough salary differentiation from the top options to justify getting too far beyond the field on Valdez.

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San Francisco Giants

The Giants are a highly ranked stack on both sites tonight, but their ownership is drastically different based on significant price variance from site to site. The entire team is drawing popularity on FanDuel, where they have an average salary of around $2,500. On DraftKings, they are one of the more positively leveraged stacks available, though the average player salary on the site is $4,400, making it a completely different play. San Francisco is facing Merrill Kelly who has a 3.95 xFIP but just a 21.2% strikeout rate and a 1.29 WHIP. Kelly induces just 9.2% swinging strikes and has a below average 27.1% CSW while yielding a 6.5% barreled ball rate and a 12.2-degree average launch angle. There is upside in drawing stacks from an active roster that ranks fourth in the league with a 4.30% home run rate against righties this season. The Giants have a .194 team ISO to lead baseball in the split and they create runs 9% better than average, though they do have a 26% strikeout rate, which is one of the worst in the league. Rostering Giants where they are unpopular is a strong approach, though the pricing may make it difficult to pair them with the highest-end pitching.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are not a good baseball team. Despite playing their home games at Coors Field, the best park in the league for run production, Colorado sits dead last against right-handed pitching with just a 72 WRC+ – 28% worse than average and a full 9 points worse than the next-lowest team (Arizona). The Rockies have just a .141 ISO against righties this year and their 2.67% home run rate is one of the lowest marks in the game. Colorado strikes out at an average 24%, putting them around the middle of the board. This is a truly bad baseball team, but in a home game and on this slate in particular, Colorado should be a consideration for MLB DFS purposes. Colorado simply appears under-owned on both sites as compared to their probability of landing as the top stack. Much of this upside comes from the ballpark, but that is why the entire industry flocks to Coors Field games in the first place. The opposing Cardinals are drawing most of the attention and they rank as a terrific option on both sites, but the Rockies side of the contest is getting largely ignored and there are several viable combinations of hitters in this lineup. Colorado is facing Wainwright, who has a 24.1% strikeout rate and a 3.63 xFIP this season, though he induces just an 8.1% swinging strike rate. Wainwright allows just a 6.6% barreled ball rate and an 8.1-degree average launch angle through the season, though his primary weapon is his spectacular curveball, a pitch with significant vertical movement that does not play particularly well at altitude. There are reasons to believe the Rockies can scratch out upside despite facing a good pitcher.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/1/2021″ team=”rockies”]

Raimel Tapia hits from the left side of the plate to start out the Rockies lineup. He costs $3,400 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings and is a strong option to put the ball in play in several of his opportunities. Tapia has just a 13.8% strikeout rate on the season, and he is slashing .291/.339/.404, though he has just a .113 ISO and is creating runs 10% worse than average. He brings a steady blend of hitting skills and speed, despite the lack of pop. He has stolen 11 bases this season and is not completely powerless with five home runs. Tapia is best when he is getting on base and stealing a bag ahead of the Rockies better power hitters, and he is under-owned as the lead-in for Rockies stacks tonight.

Yonathan Daza is slashing .321/.364/.414 on the season and creating runs 2% better than average, getting on and scoring runs in front of the quality in the middle of the lineup. Daza has limited power upside with just a .093 ISO and two home runs this season, though he has always profiled for speed and has flashed more stolen base upside than is apparent in the two that he has on the season. This could lead to a minor MLB DFS scoring bump in the right situation, though Daza’s on base and hit skills this season are more than enough reason to roster him in Rockies stacks.

The name recognition spots in the lineup begin with Charlie Blackmon. He costs $3,700 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings, where he is the second-most expensive Rockies option and has essentially no ownership projected. On FanDuel he will be under 10% popular in public lineups despite the discount. Blackmon is slashing .254/.366/.376 this season, but the power has largely been out. He has hit just four home runs in 292 plate appearances, compiling a .112 ISO and creating runs 4% below average. Blackmon averaged 31.75 home runs per season from 2016 – 2019, so it is difficult to believe that the power has entirely disappeared at age 34. He should be included in most Rockies stacks.

Shortstop Trevor Story is the most expensive Rockies bat at $4,300 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings. Story has hit nine home runs in 283 plate appearances this season and is slashing .259/.332/.446 with a .187 ISO. He has created runs 3% below average in a down season but has major upside on any given slate. Story should not be skipped for production, price or popularity reasons.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.

Slugger C.J. Cron was brought to Colorado to help replace some of the home runs that departed in free agency. He has responded with 11 long balls in his 238 plate appearances, posting a solid .214 ISO and creating runs 10% better than average, making him the Rockies’ best overall bat. Cron is slashing .252/.349/.466 on the season and strikes out at an aggressive 24.8% rate, but there is potential for him to drive the ball and put up a relevant MLB DFS score tonight. He costs a mere $4,800 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. He will be more popular on the latter site but is easy to roster across the industry.

Brendan Rodgers is a second baseman on DraftKings and adds shortstop eligibility on FanDuel as well. He is slashing .279/.361/.452 and creating runs 11% better than average over his first 119 plate appearances this season. Rodgers is a premium prospect who is not getting the buzz that some other high-end young players received on arrival. He debuted with 81 plate appearances in the 2019 season at just 22 years old but is now a more seasoned version of the toolsy prospect who had several minor league seasons with mid-teens home run totals. Rodgers has four home runs but just a .173 ISO, but there is clearly more to come. Rostering him at low ownership at a key position and a salary discount across both sites is a smart play when putting together Rockies stacks.

Joshua Fuentes slots into the No. 7 spot in the lineup and costs just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, slotting in at both first and third base on both sites. Fuentes is slashing .235/.266/.385 on the season and has hit seven home runs in his 237 plate appearances, though he owns just a .150 ISO for the season. Fuentes is creating runs 39% worse than average on the season, and there is not much appeal beyond lineup filler and salary savings.

Catcher Elias Diaz falls into a similar bucket. He is slashing just .177/.260/.300 on the season with a .123 ISO while creating runs 57% worse than average, dragging down the bottom of this lineup. Diaz has hit four home runs in 146 plate appearances and costs just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, though the ballpark is his biggest hitting asset on this slate. Diaz can be rostered where catchers are required, but he is not a mandatory mix-in where they are not.

HR Call: Christian Yelich — Milwaukee Brewers

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.