The Thursday MLB DFS slate includes seven games and a surprising amount of pitching talent. With prices on the best arms elevated to stratospheric levels, it will not be easy to get to the best bats along with premium pitching on either site. There is one major pricing discrepancy from site to site, Toronto’s pitcher Alek Manoah is priced at $10,300 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings, though he is not drawing the popularity one might expect at that price. With at worst mid-level pitching going in most of the evening’s games, finding offense could prove challenging this evening, finding low-owned upside bats even more so. Fortunately, the Top Stacks Tool is a fantastic guiderail through a tight slate like this one.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools, and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium Top Stacks Tool.***
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 17.40
Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant — 9.15
Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 9.77
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 9.95
Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 10.15
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 9.37
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 7.58
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 20.76
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 7.97
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 10.54
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.13
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 10.53
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 8.57
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 6.29
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mariners Bats (April 25)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 25)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Manny Machado (April 25 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate is packed with quality for a night with only 14 options. There is a high-quality duel in San Diego at the end of the night, with Max Scherzer going for the visiting Nationals and Yu Darvish on his home mound for the Padres. Taijuan Walker has been pitching in the best form of his career this season and he has a terrific matchup against the Pirates, while strikeout artist Tyler Mahle takes on the swing and miss happy Brewers. The slate is divided significantly on Manoah, though he is not drawing significant ownership on either site for pitching in the game with the night’s highest total and bad pitching conditions. The middle of the pitching slate fills in around Danny Duffy, Tarik Skubal, Zach Eflin, JT Brubaker and Adbert Alzolay.
Scherzer tops Awesemo’s board on the Top Pitchers Tool for tonight, despite a tough opponent in the Padres. He has been excellent this season, completing 94.1 innings in 16 starts. He is striking out 35.5% of opposing hitters while walking a mere 5.9% and pitching to a 3.24 xFIP with a 0.85 WHIP. Scherzer is inducing a 16.7% swinging strike rate and has a 32.3% CSW, though he does allow a 9.8% barrel rate and a 21.2-degree average launch angle when hitters are able to make contact. Scherzer has a sharp 33.7% hard-hit rate and just an 88.8 mph average exit velocity against. The opposing Padres are a problematic team for any right-handed pitcher. San Diego creates runs 4% better than average and strikes out at a 21.9% rate that ranks fourth in the league. San Diego has a slightly above average 3.74% home run rate and a .167 ISO in the split. The lineup does not have extreme power, but there are several spectacular power hitters who could damage Scherzer if he misses a spot. The upside in rostering one of the best pitchers in baseball is significant, and Scherzer is arguably at a discount on FanDuel when comparing his $10,900 price to Darvish’s $11,400 salary. On DraftKings the salaries are relatively even and both pitchers are at similar public ownership, making it more of a coin toss.
Darvish has been equally excellent through the first half of his season. He has provided solid depth, completing 102 innings over 17 starts and posting a 30.6% strikeout rate with a 3.72 xFIP and a 0.95 WHIP. He induces a 12.8% swinging strike rate and has a 30.9% CSW while allowing a 6.5% barrel rate and a 19-degree average launch angle. He limits hard hits in a manner much like his opponent, Darvish has just a 33.9% hard-hit rate against and an 87.6 mph average exit velocity. Darvish has a .353 expected slugging percentage against that lands in the 76th percentile in baseball. Against a Nationals team that has a 19th-ranked .154 team ISO against right-handed pitching, Darvish seems like a solid bet for at least a safe start. Washington has a 22.7% strikeout rate that is better than the league average in the split, but they create runs 4% behind the average and have just a 3.40% home run rate against righties. This is an upside spot for Darvish, his ownership on the FanDuel slate is suppressed by the price tag, it may be a difficult trick, but paying the extra $500 to get from Scherzer to Darvish buys back a fair amount of ownership value. On DraftKings his public popularity is slightly outpacing his probability of being one of the night’s two best pitchers.
Mahle costs just $8,900 on FanDuel and is a better bargain for $8,700 on DraftKings. He has completed 89.1 innings in 17 starts, striking out 29.9% of hitters along the way. He has a hard-hit rate of 35.6% and a barrel rate that lands at 7.1%, while yielding a 13.9-degree average launch angle and 89 mph average exit velocity, making it relatively difficult to hit a home run against him. Mahle has a crisp 3.50 xFIP and a 1.18 WHIP with a 29.8% CSW. He induces 12.1% swinging strikes from opposing hitters, though he sits in just the 40th percentile in chase rate, a lot of swing and miss happens in the zone, his stuff is simply fantastic. Mahle is inexpensive across the industry in a contest that should yield strikeout upside. The Brewers are baseball’s fifth-worst team with a 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The team has a .157 ISO that sits around the middle of the league, but their 3.38% home run rate is subpar, and they create runs 11% worse than average by WRC+ against righties. Mahle is primed for a strong start, though he will be very popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Manoah is an odd case of pricing. It is equally curious that the DraftKings field is not projected to be getting to him despite the low cost on that site. Manoah is projected for under 20% popularity despite just a $6,800 price tag. On the blue site, Manoah is priced up to a hilarious $10,300 and he will be nearly untouched. Manoah has been good in seven starts, completing 36.2 innings and posting a 29.1% strikeout rate. He has a 1.01 WHIP and an 8.1% walk rate, while inducing a 13.4% swinging strike rate. The CSW is low at 28.2%, but that shows room for growth and upside in a pitcher just starting to find his way. Manoah is a well-regarded prospect and could offer a solid start against an Orioles team that is average at best against right-handed pitching. Baltimore has a 23.7% strikeout rate and a .157 team ISO in the split, and they are below average with a 3.32% home run rate while creating runs 13% behind the pace by WRC+. Manoah allows an 8.8% barrel rate but just an 88 average exit velocity against and a 33% hard-hit rate. He makes a strong SP2 play for the price and popularity on DraftKings.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/8/2021″ team=”blue jays”]
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are ranked well on the Top Stacks board today based largely on a matchup against hapless J.A. Happ of the Twins. He has a 5.39 xFIP and a 1.50 WHIP with a meager 17.6% strikeout rate in 75.1 innings this season. Happ induces just an 8% swinging strike rate and has an atrocious 22.6% CSW. He allows a 12.4% barrel rate that lands in the 7th percentile and his .527 expected slugging percentage against is in the 5th percentile in baseball. He is a targetable pitcher for any offense, but the Tigers are not to be mistaken for a good team. Detroit has two power hitters of note in the lineup, Jonathan Schoop and Eric Haase, who double as the team’s most popular players for MLB DFS purposes. Building blocks for Tigers stacks around the powerful duo include Robbie Grossman, Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario and a collection of value plays. The main issue beyond the Tigers’ general lack of talent is that the popularity is on all the right hitters, rostering the low-owned Tigers means rostering some of the dregs of the league, which is never the goal for DFS upside. The Tigers should be included, and they offer significant value-based upside, they simply require careful construction.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are coming in under-owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel in what looks like a premium matchup against Adrian Houser. He has just an 18.7% strikeout rate with an inflated 9.8% walk rate this season. Houser is inducing just 7.2% swinging strikes and has compiled a lowly 22.7% CSW. He allows a 7.3% barrel rate and a 43.3% hard-hit rate but just a 0.2-degree average launch angle that saves him from giving up home run after home run. He has a fantastic 60.3% ground ball rate on the season, which tends to take the top off of opposing power upside. The Reds have been excellent across the board at the plate this season, they have a 4.02% home run rate against righties that is eighth-best in baseball while creating runs 9% better than average. Cincinnati has underappreciated upside on this slate.
Jonathan India has quietly had a strong season and he makes for a quality leadoff man with his .392 on-base percentage. India is slashing .275/.392/.414 overall, putting up a .139 ISO and a WRC+ 23% ahead of the league average. India has hit six home runs and has stolen seven bases this year, adding to his MLB DFS appeal, although his main quality is his skill at getting on ahead of some of the league’s best run creators. India slots in at second and third base on FanDuel, and he is a second baseman on DraftKings. He is neither expensive nor popular on either site and makes a great jumping off point for a Reds stack.
Jesse Winker has been fantastic through the first half of the season. Winker is slashing .305/.386/.553 with a .248 ISO and 19 home runs this year. Over 342 plate appearances, Winker has created runs 52% better than average by WRC+ and he has a .551 expected slugging percentage that sits in the 91st percentile. Winker barrels the ball 11.8% of the time with an 11.1-degree average launch angle.
Nick Castellanos is slashing .335/.388/.589 with 17 home runs and a .254 ISO. He has created runs 59% better than average and is an early NL MVP contender. Castellanos costs $4,000 on FanDuel, where he will be owned below 5%. He is at $5,200 on the DraftKings slate, and he will be equally unpopular, including him in stacks on both sites is easy and obvious.
Joey Votto is a career .303/.417/.516 hitter with a .213 ISO who has created runs 49% better than average since coming into the league. He has hit 306 home runs in his spectacular journey through baseball and he is in the midst of a minor resurgence after underwhelming in recent seasons. Votto has made 231 plate appearances this season and he has hit 11 home runs with a .215 ISO, continuing a power trend that began in the shortened 2020 season that also saw 11 home runs in 223 plate appearances and a .220 ISO. Votto hit just 15 home runs in 608 plate appearances in 2019 and 12 in 623 tries in 2018, so there is a clear change in home run upside after the downturn. The hit and on-base tools have notably declined however, Votto was at just .226/.354/.446 last season and he sits at .259/.342/.473 this year. Votto creates runs 20% better than average this year.
Tyler Naquin has surprised with some power upside this season. He has hit 13 home runs in 269 plate appearances, posting a .207 ISO while creating runs 6% ahead of the league average by WRC+. Naquin is slashing .249/.316/.456 on the year while barreling the ball 10.2% of the time with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity and an 11.3-degree average launch angle. That presents home run upside, and Naquin’s .472 expected slugging percentage is slightly outpacing his actual mark, suggesting there could be a bit more quality to extract. For $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, Naquin is an easy buy across the industry.
Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.Eugenio Suarez is one of baseball’s apex power bats. He has hit 17 home runs this season, though he has just a .196 ISO while creating runs 29% below average. Suarez is slashing just .180/.259/.376 and he strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances. Suarez gets the best part of the bat on the ball at a high rate of 14.1% when he does manage to make contact, a sustainable skill that can be tracked backward through his recent seasons. Suarez offers inexpensive low-owned home run upside from later in the Reds lineup.
Catcher Tucker Barnhart is inexpensive at $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel, though he is naturally more relevant on the former site. Barnhart is slashing .268/.352/.416 with four home runs and a .147 ISO over his 216 plate appearances this year. While the power is not significant, Barnhart has been good at getting on base and he is creating runs 10% better than average, making him a playable catcher who is drawing just 1% ownership across the industry. Barnhart adds upside to Reds stacks.
Kyle Farmer costs just $2,200 at second base or shortstop on FanDuel, and he is a $3,500 shortstop on DraftKings. Farmer has hit seven home runs in 261 plate appearances, though he has just a .120 ISO and is creating runs 26% behind the average while slashing .223/.292/.343. Farmer offers a salary and ownership offset as well as the potential for differentiated construction based on his positional flexibility around a highly volatile teammate like Suarez.
HR Call: Nelson Cruz — Minnesota Twins
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
