A loaded Tuesday MLB DFS slate has all 30 of baseball’s teams in action and offers a little bit of everything. The slate includes both a Coors Field game and a game in Toronto’s minor league stadium home in Buffalo. There are numerous high-end starting pitching options in matchups of varying quality as well as a fairly broad mid-range with most teams in the middle of their rotations. The Top Pitchers tool suggests a wide range of potential outcomes for this slate, and no one pitcher is spiking to massive ownership shares, as the field is spreading out to capture those possibilities. Getting to a range of pitching options where the field is lagging behind probability of success is a sound approach to the pitching slate. On the hitting side, several significant offenses in good spots are looking under-owned by the public in early-afternoon projections. There are major opportunities on the board if ownership holds, but with 30 teams in play it makes sense to get to a broad portfolio of bats when creating 150 lineups for our MLB DFS stacks today in tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all of the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 5.70
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.27
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 11.44
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 6.74
Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 9.47
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 11.28
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 11.54
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 8.70
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 12.48
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 11.96
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 13.87
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 8.52
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 14.63
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 7.39
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 10.57
Milwaukee Brewers: Omar Narvaez — 3.66
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 10.06
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 6.10
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 13.59
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 22.28
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 6.21
Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 3.43
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 21.53
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 6.45
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 14.80
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 10.09
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 13.00
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 10.18
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 7.24
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 9.21
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Tuesday slate of MLB DFS action is jam-packed with pitching options. The slate is topped by Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff who is in a strong strikeout spot against the heavily right-handed Cubs. However, Woodruff is not nearly the lone ace on this slate. Robbie Ray has been excellent this season and draws a plus matchup against the lowly Mariners, while Trevor Rogers will take on the Phillies, who have underperformed against right-handed pitching all season. Walker Buehler and Kevin Gausman will be dueling out West, Lucas Giolito has a tricky Twins team to contend with, and Jose Urquidy is on the board in a good spot against the Orioles. Blake Snell is a recognizable name who may gain some attention for the cheap price, but he is unreliable for depth and in a difficult spot against the Reds. Potential value plays on the board include James Kaprielian in a plus strikeout spot against the Rangers and Andrew Heaney, who is difficult to trust against the heavily right-handed Yankees in a hitter’s park. Both Vince Velasquez and Caleb Smith could offer value from further down the board in an SP2 role, though Rich Hill and Joe Ross project better in the model. If all the names are not clue enough, this is a wide-open pitching slate.
Woodruff is drawing the slate’s highest probability of being the top option on both sites. He has been razor sharp this season, posting a 2.81 xFIP with a 31% strikeout rate across 95.0 innings in his 15 starts. Woodruff provides a steady dose of innings every time he takes the mound, making him a reliable bet for a quality start and potentially a win when his low-end offense is able to come through for him. He has a 0.76 WHIP and just a 5.9% walk rate on the season and induces swinging strikes at a 12.3% clip. He has a strong 31.2% CSW and he sits in the 82nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed. Woodruff ranks in the 90th percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 82nd in barrel rate. He is taking on a Cubs team that has fallen to a league-worst 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Chicago lineup creates runs 8% worse than average in the split, though they do hit for power with a .180 team ISO and 4.34% home run rate against righties this year. The home run mark is good for third best in baseball, but Woodruff has been excellent at avoiding premium contact and has the ability to minimize the threat. Woodruff will be popular – relative to the size of the slate – even for $11,400 on FanDuel, and even more so for $11,000 on DraftKings. He is well worth a roster spot, but it is important to remember how many strong options there are on when creating lineups.
Buehler draws a Giants team that has a 4.37% home run rate against righties, second-best in the league this season. The Giants create runs 11% better than average in the split and have a league-leading .196 ISO. They do have a 25.9% strikeout rate in the split however, third-worst in the sport, giving a bit of upside to Buehler if he can avoid trouble. He comes at a discount to the price tag on Woodruff but is drawing about half the ownership on the DraftKings slate, despite a relatively similar matchup. Buehler costs $10,000 on FanDuel and is also at lower ownership than Woodruff. Buehler has completed 96.2 innings in his 15 starts this year, pitching to a 3.73 xFIP and a 0.92 WHIP. He is a rung below some of baseball’s best, coming in at just a 25.2% strikeout rate this season, but his 5.6% walk rate is a standout mark, and he is solid inducing 11.5% swinging strikes. Buehler projects well on the slate, though his contact metrics could be better for a matchup like this. He sits in just the 43rd percentile in barrel rate allowed and is at the league average in expected slugging percentage. He has a 60th percentile average exit velocity allowed and a 51st percentile hard hit rate with a 13.5-degree average launch angle. Buehler’s ability to keep runners off the bases should keep him relatively safe, but he could be in danger of yielding a long ball or two.
Toronto’s Robbie Ray has been excellent this season, earning the faith of MLB DFS gamers across the industry. He has thrown 80.2 innings in 14 starts, compiling a 3.15 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP. He has dramatically reduced his walk rate, this season Ray is issuing the free pass at just a 6.3% clip, his career rate is 10.6% and over the last four seasons he has averaged a 13.28% rate, though that mark is inflated by the 17.9% he walked in 51.2 forgivable 2020 innings. Still, Ray has been a demonstrably different pitcher this season. The southpaw has always been a good source of strikeouts, this year he has a 31% rate and induces swinging strikes at an excellent 15.4%, with his 30.5% CSW sitting above his career average, as one would expect with the newly found control and command. Ray sits in just the fourth percentile in hard hit rate allowed at a whopping 48.3% per Statcast. Ray has a seventh percentile average exit velocity against of 91.7 mph and he is allowing an ugly 11.1% barrel rate (12th percentile) with a 12.2-degree average launch angle. Ray’s expected slugging percentage against sits in just the 24th percentile. His excellence seems largely unsustainable given the contact profiles his history with walks.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool gives you the probabilities that each pitcher will be one of the highest-scoring options of the night. On DraftKings where you get two pitchers, we give the odds of a pitcher being one of the Top 2. The top pitcher percentage is defined as overall points and the value by top points per dollar, according to their respective salaries.Miami’s Trevor Rogers is taking on a Phillies lineup with a better reputation than it has deserved this season. The Phillies active roster ranks eighth-worst in baseball with a 25.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Philadelphia does create runs 8% better than average in the split and they have quality right-handed hitting throughout their lineup, but the team is only league-average for power, coming in with a .165 ISO and a 3.49% home run rate. Rogers has the ability to get through this lineup cleanly three times. He has a 29.4% strikeout rate in his 86.2 innings over 15 starts this season. He is pitching to a 3.33 xFIP and a 1.04 WHIP with an excellent 15.3% swinging strike rate. Rogers has quickly proven his ability to strike hitters out with the very best at this level, and he ranks in the 84th percentile in expected slugging percentage against and the 85th percentile in barrel rate allowed. Rogers is an excellent option for just $8,700 on FanDuel and $9,700 on DraftKings and he is practically untouched by the field.
Kaprielian will be in his spacious home ballpark in a quality matchup with the Rangers. He has delivered on his first-round promise after working his way back from major injuries. He has a 25.7% strikeout rate across 44.0 innings in eight starts this season, posting a 1.11 WHIP and inducing 11.2% swinging strikes with a solid 30.4% CSW. Kaprielian has a bumpy 4.68 xFIP and has allowed too much hard contact with a very bad average launch angle of 19.9 degrees this season, so there is danger lurking in the Rangers power bats, but ultimately he is facing a lineup that strikes out 25.1% of the time against right-handed pitching. The Rangers have just a .151 team ISO and create runs 9% worse than average in the split. Their 3.5% home run rate against righties is also slightly below average. Kaprielian does not come at much of a discount, however, with an $8,000 price tag on both sites. The public is going to him as well. He will be higher owned than several similarly ranked options from the same price tier, which takes a lot of the appeal away from this play for GPPs. Spreading out ownership across pitchers with similar upside and far lower ownership seems to make more sense.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/29/2021″ team=”athletics”]
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are in an interesting spot this afternoon. The team ranks at the top of the stacks board by probability of being the highest scoring option, and they are facing a pitcher in Brad Keller who relies on inducing poor contact and keeping the ball on the ground. Keller ranks in the ninth percentile in hard hit rate allowed and the third in expected slugging percentage against, while coming in with a 13th percentile average exit velocity allowed and a 13th percentile barrel rate. He has just an 18.5% strikeout rate and is up to an ugly 10.2% walk rate on the season. He has a 4.57 xFIP and an atrocious 1.80 WHIP. Keller induces just 8.8% swinging strikes and has a 24.3% CSW that sits well below the league average. The lone downside is the 7.7-degree average launch angle that Keller induces, though that has led to a career-low 47.4% ground ball rate this season. The Red Sox’s average WRC+ of Nos. 2 through 6 in their order (Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Hunter Renfroe) is 31% above league average. This team is excellent creating runs against all profiles of pitcher, and they have significant power up and down the lineup. The Red Sox are in a strong spot to score significant MLB DFS points tonight, though the number of home runs they hit could be somewhat limited.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are not a good team. They are, however, playing tonight’s game at Coors Field against the also terrible Rockies and they currently have the appearance of going well under-owned on the FanDuel slate. Pittsburgh is drawing more appropriate popularity on DraftKings, though they should likely have more given the salary value available. The team is somewhat improved in recent weeks, adding Ke’Bryan Hayes and returning Colin Moran to the lineup, though they will be facing German Marquez who is a reliable starter who can flash premium upside and also knows how to pitch in his home ballpark. For the season, Marquez has a 23.4% strikeout rate and a 3.71 xFIP with a 1.28 WHIP. He induces 13% swinging strikes and has been solid with just a 4% barrel rate and a 4.3-degree average launch angle. Marquez’ excellence goes up against a Pirates team that has a pathetic .128 ISO against right-handed pitching on the season. The Pirates create runs 11% worse than average and have just a 2.44% home run rate in the split. And yet, Pittsburgh has appeal in this park, given the lack of public popularity and the fair-to-cheap pricing. The Pirates will be bolstered by their 21.6% strikeout rate in the split, second-best in baseball. A major part of creating offense at Coors Field is simply putting the ball in play, which this team can do. Pittsburgh may not be the flashiest team on the board, and they are most definitely in a bad pitching matchup, but they offer low-owned access to the best park for offense in the game, and there are ways to roster the current lineup that are not entirely unappealing.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.Adam Frazier slots into the leadoff spot for the Pirates. He has multi-position eligibility between second base and the outfield on the blue site, slotting in as just a second baseman on DraftKings. One could be forgiven for not having noticed to this point, but Frazier has been excellent in 2021, slashing .330/.399/.471 with four home runs and four stolen bases. He has just a .141 ISO, but the hit tool and on-base skill have helped Frazier compile a WRC+ that sits 43% above average. For just $3,500 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings, with under 5% ownership on both sites, Frazier is an excellent way to get a Pirates stack started.
Hayes is the Pirates’ premium rookie prospect. He is another in the parade of next-generation baseball talents and is widely expected to surpass his father Charley in every way. Hays has 100 plate appearances this season, slashing .284/.370/.455 with a .170 ISO. He has hit three home runs and is creating runs 30% above average on the season. Hayes will be under 5% owned on both sites in a game at Coors Field.
Bryan Reynolds was excellent in 2019, compiling a .314/.377/.503 with a .189 ISO and 16 home runs in his 546 plate appearances. Reynolds struggled mightily last season and was largely written off despite significant underlying metrics suggesting that the slump was mere happenstance. He has proven the faithful correct in a major way this season, bouncing back to an excellent .311/.397/.527 triple-slash with a .216 ISO and 13 home runs in just 312 plate appearances. Reynolds has added three stolen bases and is creating runs 55% better than average for the season.
Moran is drawing no ownership on the FanDuel slate for $3,700 and he is the team’s third-highest-owned player on DraftKings, partly due to his $3,100 price tag. He slots in at both first and third base on FanDuel, just third on DraftKings. Moran is another Pirates hitter who had solid underlying contact metrics last season that supported the notion of sneaky quality. He has delivered in slashing .280/.345/.414 on the season, though the expected power has not come through. Moran has just a .134 ISO and has hit only four home runs this season, but he is still creating runs 12% better than average for the year. Moran should not be left out of Pirates stacks, though he is a very different play from site to site.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/29/2021″ team=”pirates”]
Jacob Stallings brings some power to the catcher spot and will be owned on DraftKings for it. He costs just $3,100 on the slate, making him one of the more appealing catchers purely on price and park factors. Stallings is slashing .227/.312/.381 on the season and he has a .155 ISO while creating runs 6% below average. He has hit five home runs in his 218 plate appearances, though he has not reliably barreled the ball or made hard contact for the season. Stallings sits in just the 32nd percentile in expected slugging percentage and has an average launch angle of 10.3 degrees to go with his limited 6.6% barreled ball rate. He is fine as a mix-in for stacks, but his ownership makes him a shakier play as a one-off on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Stallings will be completely untouched by the public, roster him as you will.
Gregory Polanco has had productive seasons for MLB DFS gamers in the past. This year, Polanco is slashing a mere .199/.273/.366. He has managed some premium contact when he makes it at all, hitting nine home runs in 245 plate appearances and putting together a .167 ISO. Polanco sits in the 76th percentile with an 11.5% barrel rate and averages a 14.4-degree launch angle. His hard-hit rate of 43.9% ranks in the 65th percentile in baseball. He still has a quality home run and power profile, though his expected slugging percentage ranks in just the 49th percentile. Polanco has upside in this park at no ownership, given his power potential from the left side of the plate. He is inexpensive and low-owned on both sites, making him a steady GPP play.
Shortstop Kevin Newman should qualify as underrated given his excellent 6.6% strikeout rate and his 2019 season that saw him hit 12 home runs and steal 16 bases in 531 plate appearances, but he has simply not delivered despite putting balls in play. Newman is struggling with a .222 batting average on balls in play and has a limited .213/.255/.271 triple slash. He cannot take advantage of his speed if he is not on base. Newman has just a .058 ISO and is creating runs 53% below average this season. He is difficult to trust for even minor shares of ownership at this level of production, though he is also inexpensive and unowned across the industry.
Ben Gamel has shown talent in flashes over several seasons between the Yankees, Mariners and Brewers organizations. Now landing with the Pirates, Gamel has made 133 plate appearances this season and is slashing .222/.295/.359 with two home runs and a .137 ISO. He is creating runs 18% below average this year, greatly limiting his appeal. Gamel is not much more than a mix-in option despite his above average speed and some pop. Gamel is only a play in an “any given night” sense and even then he is best deployed as a part of a Pirates stack.
HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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