MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 7/6/21

The Tuesday fantasy baseball slate sees nearly the entire league in action, with just Cleveland and Tampa out of action due to a tropical storm. The other 14 teams are on the slate, and it appears absolutely loaded for bear on all sides. The best of the best will be taking the hill in a spectacular matchup on the pitching front, followed by a solid string of upper to mid-range options at a variety of prices. The hitting slate is bolstered by several bad pitchers in tough environments, making some ripe opportunities for stacking. With 28 teams in action, the approach should primarily be taking on full stacks that are highly ranked by probability of success and drawing positive leverage in the MLB DFS projections. Spreading out to a broad spectrum of these options through a full slate of entries will help capture a wide range of outcomes to pair with the apex pitching. Let’s dive into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups tonight.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.


Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.


Home Run Ratings

Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh Rojas — 5.26

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 11.61

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 12.57

Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 6.15

Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 11.21

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 8.61

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 12.10

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 10.30

Detroit Tigers: Akil Baddoo — 4.01

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 5.91

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 5.72

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 6.39

Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 8.52

Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 2.70

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 5.25

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 6.48

New York Mets: Peter Alonso — 11.49

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 10.54

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 7.38

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 12.25

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 3.53

San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 9.15

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 6.78

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 11.68

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 9.29

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 6.92

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 13.41

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 10.53


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Fantasy Baseball Rankings Picks today Yahoo ESPN CBS DraftKings FanDUel expert las vegas betting odds lines tonight Blue Jays Padres Reds Phillies Braves Cubs Rockies Cardinals

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Jacob deGrom is taking on the strikeout-prone Milwaukee Brewers lineup and he is easily the best option on both sites. Following the pricey future Hall of Famer, the slate remains interesting with a handful of quality options at the top end of salary. These include Aaron Nola in a good strikeout matchup of his own, Carlos Rodon taking on a Twins team that is tough on lefties and Framber Valdez who is looking to shut down the Athletics. Chris Bassitt has been excellent all year but is in a difficult spot against the Astros, while Jose Berrios is another expensive option who will be challenged by bats. From the mid-range, Ian Anderson, Dane Dunning, Luis Castillo and Adam Wainwright seem to be the clearest paths to value.

DeGrom is the obvious go-to option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has completed 85 innings in 14 starts and he has a massive 45.3% strikeout rate for the season. He is slicing through the league with a 0.54 WHIP and a 1.63 xFIP, inducing a 21.7% swinging strike rate and a 35.6% CSW. DeGrom allows just a 5.9% barrel rate and 87.9 mph average exit velocity with just a 36.8% hard-hit rate. He will be facing a Brewers active roster that is fifth worst with a 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Milwaukee has a .154 team ISO and a 3.43% home run rate in the split, both below average, while they create runs 10% worse than average by WRC+ as a team.

Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola has a 4.44 ERA on the season, but he is pitching to a crisp 3.33 xFIP, which is a far more telling and predictive mark. He has been down somewhat in strikeouts, though his 29.4% would be a career high were it not for the 33.2% to which he spiked in a short 71.1 inning season in 2020. Nola is pitching very well, but the public misperception and comparative pricing have the public leaving him behind. He has just a 5.5% walk rate in his 95.1 innings over 17 starts this season. He allows a 6.6% barreled ball rate and just a 37.1% hard-hit rate with an 88.7 mph average exit velocity allowed. Nola stands a strong chance of putting up a good start, even if he is facing a Cubs team that can hit for power in the split. Chicago is dead last in baseball with a 26.6% strikeout rate against righties this season, though their .174 collective ISO ranks 12th and their 4.12% home run rate in the split ranks sixth. Still, between the strikeouts and the 10% below average run creation by WRC+, there appears to be significant upside for Nola. The savings from deGrom are significant, though there is a massive projection gap between the two starters. With the added value of low ownership, Nola deserves strong consideration for a large portion of pitching shares that are not dedicated to deGrom.

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Rodon will draw the powerful Twins lineup in their home park. The Minnesota active roster absolutely pounds on southpaws, they have a 4.41% home run rate that ranks third best in baseball in the split. The Twins have a .191 team ISO that sits second to only Atlanta’s .195 mark against lefties, and they create runs 8% better than average while striking out at just a 22.8% rate. Rodon is not an average lefty, but it is difficult to forecast him to get through this one entirely clean or to see the path toward the monster strikeout game that he would need to rival whatever deGrom does in torching the Brewers. Rodon will be low owned on the FanDuel slate, coming in at well under 10% projected popularity on the blue site. On DraftKings he costs $10,300 and will be owned in the mid-20% range, which seems appropriate if not slightly low. He is striking out 36.3% of hitters in his 83.2 innings over 14 starts. Rodon has a 3.02 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP for the season and allows a 17.8-degree average launch angle that trends toward home run trajectory. However, between the hard-hit rate, the reasonable 6.6% barreled ball rate and an 89.6 mph average exit velocity allowed, Rodon is good at limiting opposing home run upside. For the price, Rodon appears to be an effective pay-up to be different option as a primary pitcher tonight.

Ian Anderson has given the Braves remarkable stability for such a young starter. He has completed 88.2 innings over 16 starts this season and he is pitching to a 3.51 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate. He is inducing a 12.2% swinging strike rate but has just a 28.1% CSW on the season, showing there could be upside as he learns to work nearer to the zone. Anderson is allowing a 9.5% barrel rate but a mere 5.5-degree average launch angle and an 88 mph average exit velocity, meaning hitters have trouble getting the ball moving and in the air, which is an excellent combination for limiting home run upside. Anderson draws the Pirates offense that is familiar in this space. The Pirates are second best in baseball with a 21.7% strikeout rate against righties this season. What they do not do well is hit for power or score runs. Pittsburgh has just a .130 team ISO and a 2.5% home run rate while creating runs 15% worse than average in the split. There are interesting hitters in the Pirates lineup as individuals and they are a somewhat improved offense, but Anderson has the ability to get through this start clean while booking a win and a quality start bonus. For the $8,400 and under 5% ownership on FanDuel and $8,600 with similar popularity on DraftKings, Anderson is in play. He is likely a stronger option on the latter site, where he can be rostered as an SP2 alongside the premium aces. There is room for Anderson in lineups on both sites today.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/6/2021″ team=”rangers”]

Texas’ Dane Dunning is in a similar spot as yesterday’s Rangers starter, though Dunning gains for being a right-handed pitcher in this matchup. While the Tigers have been frisky at the plate in recent weeks, they are still bad. There is no redemption in a statistical blip, just as there is no talent in this lineup. Detroit will end this season at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. As it currently stands, recent uptick included, the Tigers active roster is second worst in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 26.2% strikeout rate. Detroit has a .149 collective ISO and a 3.11% home run rate that lands eighth worst in the split, and they create runs 6% worse than average. This is not a good baseball team and Dunning is a good young pitcher. The public may be distracted by the less than spectacular 4.38 ERA on the season, but Dunning has a 3.60 xFIP and a 24.3% strikeout rate on the season. Dunning has a 1.51 WHIP on the season though he is suffering from a .376 batting average on balls in play against. He is allowing a 6.9% barreled ball rate and a 44.4% hard-hit rate that would not typically combine well, but his 6.5-degree average launch angle and 54% ground ball rate are both excellent. Dunning is inducing a 10.8% swinging strike rate on the season and has upside for a few bonus strikeouts in this matchup, though he will likely never be far ahead of league average in the category. For a mere $7,400 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel, Dunning puts the Rangers pitching staff on the board once again, though the public is not taking much notice at single-digit popularity on both sites.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are tracking as one of the best ranked options on the Top Stacks Tool and they look to be under-owned on both sites once again. Boston is expensive and difficult to roster alongside the absolute top-= end of pitching like deGrom, but they offer a significant shot at being the top offense tonight. Boston’s dynamite lineup is on the road facing the Angels and Shohei Ohtani who is making his first start since getting tattooed by the Yankees at the end of June. Ohtani is still pitching to a 32.3% strikeout rate and a 3.56 xFIP but he is walking 13.6% of hitters and allows a 6.5% barreled ball rate with a 10.5-degree average launch angle and 44.4% hard-hit rate that all trend toward allowing home run power. Ohtani is not a pitcher on today’s FanDuel slate, but he is drawing ownership from nearly half the field at his $8,300 price tag on DraftKings. Premium Red Sox bats, including J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Hunter Renfroe all have solid walk rates and get on base with frequency. Hitters 2 through 6 in the order have an average on-base percentage of .354. This team creates runs and hits for significant power, in addition to that core of options, Alex Verdugo and Christian Vazquez provide obvious upside, while Bobby Dalbec is a frequent favorite in this space for his power from the bottom of the lineup. Dalbec is slashing just .217/.264/.416 but has a .199 ISO and 10 home runs; he is not a wraparound option, but he can clear the bases for a back of the lineup stack.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are on the road in the offense-friendly confines of Camden Yards to face the Orioles. The Toronto stack ranks at the peak of the Top Stacks Tool for both sites by probability of success, and they are one of the more positively leveraged teams on the board. The entire top end of the stacks tool will be lower owned than one would typically expect, given the high prices on premium pitchers that everyone will want in lineups. Getting to some expensive bats and diversifying the portfolio while taking the best options against bad pitchers is a great approach, and the Blue Jays walk right into that model. Toronto is taking on Baltimore’s bullpen, with Spenser Watkins acting as the team’s opener. Watkins has just one inning of Major League experience. After him, the Baltimore bullpen ranks around the middle of the league in collective xFIP and strikeout rate, which should prime the Toronto bats as the pitchers are stretched.

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Marcus Semien has rebounded by slashing .286/.349/.542 with a .256 ISO and 21 home runs in his first 372 plate appearances this season. He adds 10 stolen bases to the fantasy bounty and creates runs 39% better than average by WRC+. Semien is expensive on both sites, but he makes for a terrific option at second base on DraftKings while adding shortstop eligibility to the equation on FanDuel.

Bo Bichette costs $5,900 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, which is helping to keep ownership low. Bichette is slashing .290/.340/.479 with 12 stolen bases while creating runs 22% better than average. He has hit 15 home runs this season and he has a 50.4% hard-hit rate that sits in the 91st percentile of baseball. Bichette’s 10.8% barreled ball rate lands in the 72nd percentile and he has a .500 expected slugging percentage that shows additional upside for extra-base power to come.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is approaching must-roster territory. He is slashing .336/.438/.671 with a herculean .336 ISO and he is creating runs 94% better than average. He costs $6,200 on DraftKings and is pulling just 10% ownership, on the blue site he adds first base eligibility and costs $4,600, but he is projected for less than 10% popularity. There are plenty of reasons to get to the slugger who has hit 27 home runs this season, driving everything this Blue Jays stack does on a regular basis.

George Springer missed most of the first half and has seen just 65 plate appearances in 2021. Springer has hit five home runs and is slashing .226/.359/.528 with a .302 ISO in the small sample. He costs $5,100 on DraftKings and a mere $3,700 on FanDuel and will be at or around 10% ownership.

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has a significant shot at a home run of his own. He costs just $3,400 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, representing the first real discount in this lineup. Hernandez is slashing .294/.335/.475 with a .180 team ISO and he is creating runs 18% better than average for the season. He has hit 11 home runs in 272 plate appearances this season and has a 13.4% barreled ball rate with a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a .469 xwOBACON, all excellent marks. Hernandez is an affordable option in the middle of Toronto stacks.

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With third base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and slotting in at second and third base on FanDuel, Cavan Biggio provides quality for only $4,300 on the former site and $2,700 on the latter. Biggio is slashing .232/.341/.376 and he has just a .144 ISO in his 231 plate appearances. Biggio has six home runs and two stolen bases, but he has flashed far more talent than that at the Major League level in the past. Biggio will be popular where he is inexpensive, but not to a rate that would warrant leaving him out of stacks deliberately.

Randal Grichuk and his 15 home runs are in the No. 7 spot. Grichuk costs $3,000 on FanDuel tonight and $4,100 across town, making him a solid value that is not drawing the attention of some of the other priced-down plays in this lineup. Grichuk is slashing .263/.291/.465 on the season and he has a .202 ISO while creating runs slightly better than average. While he is not an every-game producer, Grichuk provides roller coaster scoring with a frequently high peak, which makes him an ideal GPP play.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is pulling in no ownership for $4,200 and $3,100 from site to site. He has hit nine home runs in his 292 plate appearances this season, slashing .260/.278/.415 with a .155 ISO. He has created runs 16% worse than average for the season, however, and he is walking just 2.7% of the time. He has power and upside for MLB DFS scoring, but he is less than reliable in terms of getting on base, creating runs or turning the lineup over for hitters at the top end.

Catcher Danny Jansen is not entirely dispossessed of power, but he is largely an afterthought. Jansen’s professional peak to this point came in 2019 when he saw 384 plate appearances for the Blue Jays, hitting 13 home runs and slashing .207/.279/.360 with a .153 ISO while creating runs 32% worse than average. Where catchers are required he is fine, but elsewhere he is far less important.

HR Call: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto Blue Jays

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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