The midweek fantasy baseball slate brings a slightly different shape to contests, with eight games on FanDuel and DraftKings adding the seven-inning Brewers – Mets makeup game to the evening main slate. Mets ace Jacob deGrom will be taking the hill in the first end of the double-header, however, so the pitching impact of the seven-inning game is likely to be minimal. The remaining games that appear on both sites provide more quality bats than arms, though there is a broad mid-range for a slate of this size. Several teams are on the back end of their rotations or utilizing their bullpens for the full game tonight, creating some interesting opportunities for offense once again. By far the heaviest total of the night lands in Camden Yards, where the Blue Jays and Orioles are set to have another slugfest. This has all the makings of an excellent enjoyable slate of MLB DFS action.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 6.07
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 11.11
Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 5.08
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 10.03
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 6.60
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 14.12
Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 6.33
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 9.52
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 11.51
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 10.08
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 15.33
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 6.33
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 12.09
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 10.34
Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 11.88
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 14.43
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The clear-cut top pitcher on the board on both sites today is Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler, who is nearly doubling the next-highest ranked pitcher by probability of being the top individual scorer on the FanDuel slate. Following Wheeler on the Top Pitchers Tool is a solid list of mid-level names, including Luis Garcia, Yusei Kikuchi, Alex Wood, Chris Paddack, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Sean Manaea, in spots of varying quality. Of that list, Manaea may be the pitcher in the best current form, but he is in a terrible matchup facing the Astros in Houston. Kikuchi draws the Yankees, no easy challenge for any lefty, while Wood and Garcia are in arguably better MLB DFS spots.
Wheeler has turned a lot of skeptics into believers with his tremendous performance through the first half of the season. He has made 17 starts, completing 114 innings. The depth of start and upside to the win and quality start bonuses are tremendous assets on both sites, particularly on FanDuel where the quality start is a major boost. Wheeler is inducing a 12.8% swinging strike rate and striking out 31.3% of hitters this season while walking a mere 5.6%. He has an excellent 2.73 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP while yielding just a 4.7% barreled ball rate and a 10.8-degree average launch angle. Wheeler has been spectacular avoiding premium contact, his hard-hit rate against stands at just 29.7% and opposing hitters generate just an 84.9 mph average exit velocity against him. Wheeler is perfectly positioned for an upside start. The Cubs have premium power, but they are also last in baseball with a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Cubs have an above average 4.16% home run rate in the split with a .175 collective ISO, but they are creating runs 10% worse than average against righties, between the lack of sequential hitting and the significant upside for strikeouts, Wheeler is projecting easily as the night’s top starter, but he is carrying significant ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it will be important to find the right balance and make a specific decision to target a leverage point against the field – whether above or below — and build Wheeler lineups accordingly.
Wood has pitched relatively well for the Giants this season. He has a 3.59 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP on the season, compiling those numbers over 14 starts and 76.1 innings. Wood has struck out 25.5% of hitters while walking 7.9% through the season and he is inducing a solid 12.5% swinging strike rate and generating a 31.9% CSW. He has been capable limiting opposing power as well, while he is yielding a 42.6% hard-hit rate, the average launch angle he gives up is just 6.3 degrees, which is not targetable average elevation for home run power, and he allows a 6.9% barreled ball rate that sits in the 63rd percentile. Wood is facing a Cardinals team that is ninth-best in baseball with a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season, though St. Louis has a disappointing 2.98% home run rate that sits below league average despite their significant right-handed power on paper. St. Louis has a .155 ISO and has created runs 1% worse than average by WRC+ in the split, adding to the idea that Wood stands a good chance to limit any production. The strikeout spot is not the best, considering Wood’s average rate and the degree to which Cardinals hitters can limit opposing whiffs, but Wood should be well positioned to provide a bit of safety with a little room for upside on both sites.
Luis Garcia of the Astros has been priced up in-line with his performance through the end of June. He has thrown 80.1 innings over 14 starts, compiling a 27.4% strikeout rate and a 4.11 xFIP with a 1.12 WHIP. Garcia is inducing an excellent 12.9% swinging strike rate and pounding the zone to compile a 30.6% CSW. With a 67th-percentile barrel rate of 6.7% and a 59th-percentile average exit velocity against of 88.3 mph, Garcia has gotten by despite a 39.4% hard-hit rate and an 18.2-degree average launch angle, his .376 expected slugging percentage against stands in the 65th percentile. The Athletics active roster ranks 13th in baseball with a 3.74% home run rate in the split, but they create runs 3% better than average against righties and they have a .175 team ISO. Oakland is 10th best in baseball with a 22.8% strikeout rate against righties this season. Garcia has upside, and his talent has a chance to win out, but he has significant opposition in his path. The ownership projections are appealing for the $9,700 right-hander on FanDuel, while he is steadily in the mix at $9,600 on DraftKings.
Kikuchi draws the Yankees in the slate’s last game of the night. He has continued to pitch well this season, following his noteworthy and well-discussed breakout last year. Kikuchi is pitching to a 3.43 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP over his 93.1 innings in 15 starts this season. He induces a 13.4% swinging strike rate, has a 31.2% CSW and has allowed just a 6.1-degree average launch angle for the season. Kikuchi is inducing a 53.8% ground ball rate this season, up from last year’s 52%. Kikuchi is facing a heavily right-handed Yankees offense that is designed to do one thing, elevate the ball to home run levels. Between the reasonable strikeout ability and the significant propensity for keeping the ball down, Kikuchi stands a good chance to stifle the Yankees’ offense, though he is not entirely safe against this squad. The Yankees have baseball’s third-highest home run rate against left-handed pitching at 4.36% and they create runs 4% better than average in the split this season. The team has an above average (but lower than one might expect) .169 collective ISO against lefties and they are in the middle of the league with a 23.1% strikeout rate in the split. Kikuchi has upside for $9,000 and below 10% ownership on FanDuel and he is even more interesting on DraftKings, where his $9,300 price tag has his ownership projected below 15%.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/7/2021″ team=”mariners”]
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are once again the top-ranked stack on the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Toronto is absolutely loaded from top to bottom, and they are facing a thoroughly unpacked Matt Harvey in prime hitting conditions at Camden Yards. The 11-runs in the total are two more than the next highest and 2.5 ahead of the average total. The Blue Jays are drawing a significant share, coming in with the slate’s highest implied team total at 6.4 runs, roughly 1.8 runs higher than most other well-projected teams tonight. Toronto’s bats are as obvious as they are abundant, from Marcus Semien through Danny Jansen this team can be rostered in stacks of varying quality, though avoiding public popularity and common constructions will be a nifty trick. The Blue Jays are explosively popular and slightly negatively leveraged in early returns. It seems likely that they will only gain popularity as lock approaches. In a cost and ownership vacuum, the go-to Blue Jays stack would include Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez, though the projected 6-8 hitters all also offer significant upside for MLB DFS production and home run power.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies vault to nearly the top of ranked stacks in the Top Stacks Tool on both DraftKings and FanDuel today. Their probability of success is bubbling because of an upside matchup against Arizona’s Humberto Castellanos who will likely only pitch three innings – assuming he lasts that long. Castellanos has been serving in a long-relief role out of the bullpen and will be making his first start of the season. In his relief efforts he has a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate over 11.2 innings. His xFIP stands at 4.66 and he has a 1.20 WHIP while inducing just a 6.5% swinging strike rate. That said, the Rockies’ active roster is far and away the worst in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a WRC+ 29% worse than average at 71. Colorado strikes out 23.4% of the time against righties, around the league average, and they have just a .142 ISO and a 2.70% home run rate in the split, again both well below average. Colorado is not drawing significant ownership for the upside in this specific matchup, though the public is not leaving them entirely alone on either site. The most appealing bat in the lineup, Trevor Story, is projected for around 15% ownership from site to site, while the rest of the lineup lands in single digits. Appealing stacks would include Story as well as Charlie Blackmon, Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon, C.J. Cron and potentially the hit tools provided by Raimel Tapia and Yonathan Daza, pending the construction of the confirmed lineup. Despite the quality hit tools and reasonable on-base skills within that list, the core of Rockies just named creates runs 2% worse than average on the average, a number that is bolstered largely by Cron’s 12% above average mark. Every other hitter in the Rockies projected lineup creates runs at a rate below league average. The Rockies should clearly be rostered, but do so knowing that this is not a good baseball team.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are taking on a Marlins pitcher to be determined, in what will likely be largely a bullpen game for both teams. The Los Angeles offense has gotten relatively healthy in recent weeks, though they are still awaiting the return of shortstop Corey Seager. The Dodgers are 12% better than average creating runs against right-handed pitching, but 2% worse than average against southpaws. Los Angeles strikes out more against left-handed pitching as well, coming in at a below-average 24% rate as compared to a 22.3% mark against righties, though they hit lefties for slightly more power with a 3.95% home run rate and a .168 team ISO compared to a 3.68% and .166 ISO. Against either hand, when healthy and performing to their relative abilities, this lineup is deadly against pitchers of both hands. The Dodgers will be into slightly negative leverage territory on the blue site, but they are under-owned given their price tags on the DraftKings slate, creating an excellent tournament opportunity.
Mookie Betts was rightfully surprised at his own inclusion in All-Star selections, given his .247/.360/.452 performance for the year. He has 10 home runs and seven stolen bases, and he has a .204 ISO while creating runs 28% better than average for the year, so the shock is somewhat overblown. Betts costs just $3,700 on FanDuel. The DraftKings slate prices him correctly at $5,200, pushing his ownership even lower and creating a perfect spot for GPP players to start a Dodgers stack.
Max Muncy brings significant thunder from the No. 2 spot in the lineup. Muncy has hit 18 home runs in just 293 plate appearances this season, and he has an excellent .263/.416/.556 triple-slash with a .293 ISO while creating runs 67% better than average. Muncy strikes out just 19.1% of the time, his on-base skills are terrific, and he is a major cog in everything the Dodgers do at the plate. With eligibility at both first and second base, he is a terrific play at $5,800 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel.
Justin Turner is doing Justin Turner things once again this year, slashing .294/.386/.479 with a .185 ISO and 13 home runs and creating runs 43% better than average. Turner quietly goes about his business every game, and his business is excellence. Turner costs just $3,100 at third base on FanDuel but the field is finding him just 11.2% of the time, which is not as frequent as it should be. He comes in at a wildly different – and appropriate – $5,500 on DraftKings where his ownership is well below 5%.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/7/2021″ team=”dodgers”]
Cody Bellinger is at a major discount on both sites. He is priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He is drawing attention on both sites, but anything below 20% ownership on a player with Bellinger’s talent is perfectly playable. Bellinger is slashing just .189/.307/.316 with three home runs and has a .126 ISO over his first 114 plate appearances, a sample the public and pricing are putting more faith into than the 660 plate appearances in 2019. That season he went .305/.406/.629 with a massive .324 ISO and he hit 47 home runs while adding 15 stolen bases.
Catcher Will Smith provides major power upside for his position. He has hit 10 home runs in 256 plate appearances this season, slashing .260/.363/.465 with a .205 ISO and creating runs 30% better than average by WRC+. Smith costs $4,300 on the DraftKings slate where he will only be owned at a 5% rate that does not seem to align with his talent level and the site’s requirement for the position. Smith sits in the 64th percentile with a 44% hard-hit rate and his 9.1% barreled ball rate is a 54th-percentile mark. He avoids strikeouts and has an excellent walk rate, putting him in play for upside contributions in all forms of MLB DFS scoring.
Chris Taylor slots into the No. 6 spot in the lineup and fills second base and outfield on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Taylor is slashing .271/.382/.454 with a .182 ISO and 10 home runs over his underrated first half. In his 319 plate appearances, Taylor has created runs 36% better than average by WRC+ and he is another Dodgers hitter who is simply excellent at getting on base and moving the order along, despite a 26.6% strikeout rate. Taylor has a solid 10.1% barreled ball rate and a 14.9-degree average launch angle that lend themselves to easy home run trajectories, though he has just a 38.6% hard-hit rate and an 88.9 mph average exit velocity that prevent him from making a significant leap in home runs. For just $2,900 on FanDuel, Taylor is drawing under 5% ownership, a clear mistake by the field. He costs $5,100 on DraftKings and will be even less popular, though getting him into stacks with the top of the order would be an exercise in futility.
Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.Gavin Lux brings some punch in the middle of the infield. He is a second baseman and a shortstop on FanDuel but slots in only at shortstop on DraftKings. He is slashing .238/.318/.367 with just a .129 ISO over his 280 plate appearances this season and is creating runs 6% behind the league average. He has a 54th-percentile hard-hit rate and a 65th-percentile average exit velocity for the season but limits his power potential by barreling the ball just 5.3% of the time, a 22nd-percentile mark. Through his ascension in the Dodgers’ system, Lux was a well-regarded power prospect. Nothing has changed; he simply needs development. Already this season, Lux has cut his strikeout rate from 29.3% in 82 plate appearances in 2019 and 27.5% in 69 plate appearances in 2020 to just 22.8% while spiking his walk rate from 8.5 and 8.7% to 10.2%, and his run creation has leapt from an 87 WRC+ two years ago and a 63 last year to a 92.
A.J. Pollock rounds out the projected lineup in the No. 8 spot. Pollock is slashing .249/.306/.436 on the season and he has hit eight home runs in 196 plate appearances. He has a WRC+ 3% better than average for the season and he has stolen two bases, but his days as a 20-20 threat are likely over. For the $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, Pollock is not a dysfunctional wraparound option, despite the relatively low on-base percentage.
HR Call: Cody Bellinger — Los Angeles Dodgers
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