MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HR Projections & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The Saturday main slate has 10 games and several premium pitching options on tap for MLB DFS gamers this evening. The slate is top-heavy with arms and otherwise features largely starters who are targetable for run creation, power, or, in many cases, both. The hitting slate has several standout spots that are going undervalued by the public. However, a few of the absolute best-looking offenses will be drawing fairly significant popularity, making them difficult to roster for GPP play. Utilizing the Top Pitchers and Top Stacks tool to find the exploitable leverage points on a slate like tonight’s is critical. Simply riding a sidecar with the public ownership on the most popular spots is not a viable ongoing tournament-winning strategy, nor is over-rostering bad teams when they are popular, quality of opponent notwithstanding.

***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools, and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium MLB Top Pitchers Tool***

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 2.32

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 18.55

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 9.87

Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon — 4.42

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 7.57

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 7.50

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 10.54

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.67

Los Angeles Dodgers: Albert Pujols — 9.60

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 4.90

Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 15.27

New York Mets: Peter Alonso — 17.26

Oakland Athletics: Mitch Moreland — 5.47

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 5.38

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 12.14

Seattle Mariners: Ty France — 4.62

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 6.50

Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 16.34

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 7.14

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 7.17

Latest MLB DFS Content

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The Saturday pitching slate leans a bit top-heavy, with several premium options at the higher price points on both sites. The top two on both DraftKings and FanDuel are Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes, who will be dueling one another in a matchup of two of the season’s best overall pitchers. Kevin Gausman is at an uncomfortable price point and brings question marks about his recent form to the mound with him in a spot ripe with opportunity against the Pirates. Chris Bassitt is at an expensive-for-him price point on the next tier in his matchup against the Mariners. From a cheaper price point, there should be opportunities around Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, all of whom potentially carry opportunity cost when compared with the highest-end options on the slate.

In a game that is a total stay-away spot for bats, both Rodon and Burnes look set to shine. Of the two, there should be a slight edge to Rodon, given the strikeout upside present in the Brewers lineup. Milwaukee is third-worst in baseball with a 26.5% strikeout rate against lefties this season, while the White Sox have an above-average 22.9% strikeout rate against righties. However, Burnes has been an exceptional strikeout artist of a righty this year. Both pitchers bring excellent form to the mound tonight, in 96.2 innings over 16 starts, Rodon has a 2.91 xFIP and a 36.6% strikeout rate, Burnes has struck out 37.2% with a 2.07 xFIP over 96 innings in his 16 starts. The righty has a better walk rate at just 4.3%, but Rodon’s 6.8% mark is fine, and the pitchers have matching 0.90 WHIPs. Burnes has done the better job of limiting premium contact, holding opposing hitters to an excellent 28.4% hard-hit rate and a 3.3% barreled ball rate, while Rodon is at a 5.7% barrel rate but a 38.1% hard hit. Both pitchers will be extremely popular on the slate, and both should be rostered heavily despite the public’s exposure.

Gausman sits near the top of the board on both sites, though he is a more expensive venture on FanDuel, suppressing his popularity to interesting degrees. Gausman has been a pitcher searching for his form over the past few starts, coinciding with the league’s crackdown on the sticky stuff. There are notable dips in spin rate on Gausman’s slider and changeup, though his four-seam fastball has maintained a steady through-line, which plays well with his splitter in his primary combination of pitches. This season, Gausman has a 30.5% strikeout rate with a 3.40 xFIP and a 0.85 WHIP. He has induced a 15.4% swinging strike rate on the season and has a sharp 32.1% CSW%, limiting hard hits to 36.9% overall. Against a lineup that has been one of baseball’s worst through most of the season, there is reason to believe that Gausman has upside. The Pirates create runs 10% behind the curve against righties, they have a 2.74% home run rate that is among the bottom teams in baseball, and they have a collective .137 ISO that is also near the bottom of the league. Gausman will have to manufacture strikeouts to find his upside. However, the Pirates come in with just a 21.3% strikeout rate in the split this season, the second-best mark in baseball. As a pay-up to be contrarian option, Gausman makes a fine play on FanDuel. He is more of a mix-in at level popularity and pricing with other options on the board on the DraftKings slate.

Crush your MLB DFS contests with tools and data from the #1 DFS Player

Bassitt draws a Mariners team that is third-worst in baseball against righties with a 25.6% strikeout rate this season. The team’s active roster creates runs nine percent worse than average, and they have just a .157 collective ISO with a 3.58% home run rate in the split, and they create runs nine percent worse than average. This is an exploitable strikeout-heavy team, and Bassitt is a capable strikeout pitcher in the right spots. He has a 24.8% rate on the season and is pitching to a 3.91 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP and a 5.7% walk rate. The righty brings quality by limiting hard hits to 32.5% with an 87.4 mph average exit velocity against. He has been a sharp option for most of the season and tends to pitch relatively clean games even when not reaching upside in strikeouts; Bassitt has completed 125 innings in 20 starts this season, tying him for third with Gerrit Cole, placing behind Zack Wheeler and Walker Buehler, and is in a multi-way tie for eighth in baseball with 13 quality starts on the season. The righty has been pitching well all year. He is in a strong upside spot and lands at under seven percent ownership on both sites tonight and makes for a solidly under-owned play.

Framber Valdez has a stellar 70.5% ground ball rate on the season, severely limiting the home run upside of opposing teams by inducing a -6.5 degree average launch angle and just a 4.5% barreled ball rate. The lefty is not an extreme strikeout pitcher. He comes into tonight’s contest with a 21.4% rate over 10 starts and 60.2 innings on the season, but he does induce a quality 11.2% swinging-strike rate, and he has pitched to a 3.54 xFIP this season. Valdez walks too many hitters at 9.2%, and he allows premium contact with a 42.4% hard-hit rate, but it simply does not matter with batters’ inability to elevate the ball against him. The Rangers are a mediocre lineup in general. They create runs 14% worse than average against left-handed pitching, and they have just a 2.72% home run rate and a .132 ISO in the split, with a 23.6% strikeout rate that lands in the middle of the league. There is minimal risk of a breakout against a pitcher with Valdez’s profile. At worst, he should offer a high degree of safety, with some potential to manufacture strikeouts. Valdez is an interesting pivot point to more popular and expensive DraftKings options. For a major discount at just $8,200 on FanDuel, he is a significant value play for those not going to the top three options.

Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are in extreme negative leverage territory on DraftKings tonight. They will be too popular on the blue site as well, though not as egregiously. Detroit is one of the worst teams in baseball, despite recent friskiness. The Tigers’ active roster is second-worst in baseball for the season, with a 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They have a .155 collective ISO that lands below average, as does their 3.43% home run rate, and they create runs six percent below average by WRC+. Over the last month, during their alleged surge, Detroit has a 24% strikeout rate against both hands, and they have created runs 11% better than average on the whole. However, they have benefitted from a .320 batting average on balls in play that ranks third in baseball over the same timeframe, while both their barreled ball rate and hard-hit rate have actually declined. The Tigers face Carlos Hernandez, who is making his second start and has 25.2 innings on the books this season. Hernandez has a 30.5% strikeout rate, but he has benefitted from pitching out of the bullpen for a portion of it. He also has an unsightly 14.4% walk rate and has yielded a 42.9% hard-hit rate on the season. Evidence supports the notion that this could be a productive spot for the Tigers offense, but they are far too popular to make for a sharp GPP play. Better teams in positive leverage spots warrant lineup shares where this team can be easily skipped.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto stands out on both sites. They rank near the top of the board for the probability of being the best stack while delivering positive leverage across the industry. The excellent offense is pricey on DraftKings but easier to roster on the blue site, where they will not be nearly popular enough. The team is facing Mets righty Taijuan Walker, who has struggled with his form in recent outings. Walker is at a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate for the entire season, yielding 39.6% hard contact and a 6.7% barreled ball rate while inducing just nine percent swinging strikes and compiling a 29.3% CSW%. A pitcher who is on the decline from numbers that were merely a bit above average, to begin with, is targetable with excellent bats. Toronto profiles well for both power and run creation in this spot.

Crush your MLB DFS contests with tools and data from the #1 DFS Player

All-Star Marcus Semien is one of the most expensive bats on the slate at $5,600 and filling in at second base on DraftKings. He is at just $3,500 on FanDuel, where he adds shortstop eligibility. Semien is slashing .271/.340/.519 this season, and he has hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bases. The infielder has been excellent atop the Blue Jays lineup between his individual production and his ability to get on base ahead of hitters behind him; Semien has a .247 ISO that shows his excellent extra-base power and he creates runs 31% better than average by WRC+. For under five percent ownership, this is a terrific place to start a contrarian Blue Jays stack.

Bo Bichette slots in as the team’s shortstop on both sites, and he is at a different site-to-site price point as well. DraftKings is asking $5,200 for the infielder, while FanDuel only wants $3,600. Either way, this is a solid option. Bichette has hit 16 home runs and stolen 13 bases this season. He has a .179 ISO and a WRC+ 20% better than average. The shortstop is slashing a solid .289/.339/.468. He provides upside on his own and a strong correlation with the rest of the team’s core. Bichette is the most popular Blue Jays player on the DraftKings slate. At just under seven percent ownership, he is easy to roster.

Superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit 32 home runs in his 397 plate appearances already this season. He has a .325/.426/.669 triple-slash that is outstanding, while his .343 ISO is otherworldly. Guerrero has created runs 91% better than average this season. He costs $6,100 on the DraftKings slate – as much or more than some of the cheap pitching options – and deserves every penny. The righty slugger is easily one of baseball’s best overall hitters, and he will be owned at under one percent on the DraftKings slate. On FanDuel, he costs $4,500, adds third base eligibility, and is projected under five percent ownership. He should already be in your lineup by this point in this paragraph.

George Springer has been coming on steadily as his season rounds into form. The outfielder has now made 107 plate appearances and is up to a .226/.321/.473 line with seven home runs and a .247 ISO. He has created runs 15% ahead of average, a mark that seems likely to climb, given the overall quality of the hitter. Finally healthy and productive, there is no reason to skip Springer at $5,000 on DraftKings or $4,100 on FanDuel, though we have now compiled a very expensive stack.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”07/24/2021″ team=”blue jays”]

Teoscar Hernandez is a solid go-to for the “most underrated” discussion, though Yuli Gurriel of the Astros remains my choice. The Blue Jays outfielder slashes a terrific .295/.341/.483 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases on the season, despite missing time earlier in the year. He has created runs 23% better than average over his 314 plate appearances, providing reliable ongoing quality when he is in the lineup. Hernandez is the first hitter in this lineup at a discount on DraftKings, coming in at $4,700. On FanDuel, he costs just $3,400 and is an excellent play at under two percent projected ownership.

Righty masher Randal Grichuk has hit 18 home runs and has a .210 ISO in his 364 plate appearances this season. Grichuk is paid for his home run upside, which is the same thing we are rostering when we click his $4,400 price on DraftKings and $2,800 mark across town, which is a solid discount for the power upside. The outfielder is under-owned despite coming in cheap and in a lineup-relevant spot in the order.

Cavan Biggio has second and third base eligibility on FanDuel, just third base on DraftKings. The infielder has had a downturn at the plate overall this season, slashing .224/.327/.372 with a .148 ISO while creating runs eight percent worse than average. He has hit seven home runs and stolen three bases in his 265 plate appearances, but we still expect that Biggio has more to offer at the dish. With no one else on him and at a discount relative to his skillset, Biggio can land in some stacks from late in this lineup, though we do not need him to offset the already low ownership.

Reese McGuire is mostly relevant where we need catchers. The backstop has a .269/.310/.361 triple slash on the season with just a .092 ISO, and he has created runs 16% worse than average this season. McGuire costs just $3,000. There are better one-off catchers on the slate, but he makes sense for at least some correlation plays in stacks. Cutting him entirely from the FanDuel pool would result in just seven hitters from this lineup, given the lack of a DH in the National League park.

HR Call: Miguel Sano — Minnesota Twins

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Share this on:

X (Twitter) Facebook

[MLBPAGE]

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.