The Sunday afternoon main slate features 11 games with a few clear go-to pitching options and not much else on the mound. Consequently, there are several teams in strong positions to create runs and hit for power, which should lead to another high scoring hitting focused slate. With 11 games on the board, it makes sense to spread out through the range of outcomes once again, which is easier to accomplish with a tight core of viable pitchers on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 11.98
Atlanta Braves: Joc Pederson — 12.57
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 8.57
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 11.45
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 10.89
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 6.05
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 9.33
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 5.96
Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 10.17
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 12.38
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 24.90
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 6.28
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 5.46
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 12.09
New York Yankees: D.J. LeMahieu — 5.37
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 11.29
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 1.85
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 6.71
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 13.01
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 10.12
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 10.46
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 19.02
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Sunday’s pitching slate is notably thinner than the offerings in recent days. The slate is topped by several name brand arms before crashing into a mountain of mediocrity. The Padres continue their weekend series against the Marlins, putting Yu Darvish in an excellent position to run away and hide with his MLB DFS score. The Reds draw the Cardinals once again, with Sonny Gray looking to continue what his teammate started with an excellent outing last night against the same club. Aaron Nola will be taking the mound in what should be an excellent spot to pick up a win against the division rival Braves, and he ends the premium portion of the pitching slate. A few additional names at least worthy of consideration for some shares include Zack Greinke, John Means and Tarik Skubal.
Darvish is far and away the best pitcher in the best spot on this slate. He is pricey but worth it at $10,300 on FanDuel and $10,500 on DraftKings. He has thrown 110.2 innings over his 19 starts this season, posting a crisp 28.9% strikeout rate with a 5.9% walk rate, a 3.86 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP. Darvish induces a 12.7% swinging strike rate and a 30.4% CSW. He has been excellent in terms of contact metrics as well, allowing just a 33.5% hard-hit rate and an 87.6 mph average exit velocity, though his .352 expected slugging percentage against ranks in a respectable 69th percentile. Darvish is facing a weak Marlins team that has a league-low .138 collective ISO against righties this season. The active roster creates runs 13% worse than average in the split and has just a 3.05% home run rate, while striking out 25% of the time, sixth worst in the league against right-handed pitching. Darvish stands an excellent chance of putting up the day’s best start in this spot and should be rostered on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Gray faces a Cardinals team that has been good avoiding strikeouts in the aggregate but has several exploitable hitters. St. Louis has a solid 22.1% strikeout rate against righties, but they have been sub-par in other offensive categories in the split. The active roster creates runs 13% worse than average and has a 3.30% home run rate with a .150 collective ISO. It is fair to say that the Cardinals offense has underperformed expectations and their talent level on the season. Gray, meanwhile, has been sharp through his 66.2 innings in 13 starts this season. He has a 29.7% strikeout rate and a 3.26 xFIP but allows too many free passes with a 9.3% walk rate, leading to a 1.35 WHIP. Gray induces a solid 11.5% swinging strike rate and a 31.4% CSW. He limits opposing power and quality contact extremely well, limiting the damage that the heavy walks do in the run creation department. Gray has yielded just a 4.6% barrel rate and a 30.1% hard-hit rate on the season. In this spot, for just $8,600 on FanDuel, Gray is an easy choice and should be highly popular. For $9,800 on DraftKings he is a more difficult ask for roster construction but should be worth the effort if the price cuts into his popularity.
Nola has been off form on the back of the baseball card numbers to a degree, but he still shines in underlying metrics. He has completed 106.2 innings in his 19 starts this season, pitching to a 3.43 xFIP and a 29% strikeout rate with a 5.3% walk rate. The WHIP lands at 1.23, an inflated mark that is largely attributable to a .330 batting average on balls in play against. He allows a 37.2% hard-hit rate and a 7.6% barrel rate with a 12.5-degree average launch angle and an 88.7 mph average exit velocity allowed, doing a fair job limiting opposing power. The opposing Braves are notably without their best overall player, but they offer quality and power at the top spots in the lineup, so the matchup will not be an easy one on a rainy Sunday in Philadelphia. The Braves active roster is ninth worst with a 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but they have a .191 ISO and a 4.39% home run rate in the split that are both among league leaders, and they create runs exactly at the average by WRC+. Nola is the third banana on the board, but he is very much in play on this slate and his $9,100 price on FanDuel is too deep a discount.
Cincinnati Reds
Pending ownership projections, the Reds appear to be in an excellent spot facing the Cardinals Johan Oviedo who is targetable for power and run creation. He has just a 17% strikeout rate this season while walking 11.7% and allowing a 7.7% barrel rate, stacking up for a negative expectation in run creation. Oviedo yields just 35% hard hits and an average launch angle of 7.8 degrees, which protects him somewhat against the home run, but the Reds are simply too high-end for both power and run creation to doubt their upside. They may end up quite popular on the slate once again, they are fairly priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel and would be a prime go-to stack if they are not excessively popular. The core of the lineup has significant power with Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Aristides Aquino, Tyler Naquin and Eugenio Suarez, while hitters like Jonathan India, Tucker Barnhart and Kyle Farmer can add a bit of positional quality around the edges.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are popping in both my home run model and MLB DFS projections today. They are at home in hitter-happy Fenway Park and they face mediocre Domingo German. He has a 4.45 xFIP and a 1.24 WHIP on the season, striking out a mere 22%. Boston’s active roster has a .190 ISO and a 3.89% home run rate while creating runs 5% better than average against righties on the season, and there is upside against German.
Enrique Hernandez’s .244/.323/.466 triple slash leaves something to be desired in the hit and on-base areas when talking about the first man in the batting order, but Hernandez has produced quality and creates runs 11% better than average. He has hit 14 home runs and has a surprising .222 ISO in his 353 plate appearances this season, making him a strong option to start Red Sox stacks, though on four player maximum sites it is challenging to play him while skipping some of the superstars later in the lineup.
Jarren Duran slots into the No. 2 spot in the confirmed Sox lineup. Duran came with significant hype when he was called up last week, after a strong start to his AAA season. In his 21 plate appearances in the majors, Duran has hit a home run and is slashing .211/.286/.421 while scoring six times. He has a .211 ISO in the tiny sample and is playable for just $2,500 on the blue site and $2,600 across town.
Xander Bogaerts costs $5,000 on the DraftKings slate but just $3,700 on FanDuel, which is likely too low for his quality. He is slashing .311/.374/.524 with 15 home runs and five stolen bases on the season. He has a .213 ISO and has created runs 41% better than average. Bogaerts is inarguably one of the best shortstops in the game, day in and day out. He is an easy click when stacking Red Sox.
Rafael Devers creates runs 46% better than average, continuing the Red Sox excellent run of hitters through the middle of the lineup. Devers is slashing .282/.356/.580 with 26 home runs in his 402 plate appearances, translating more of his doubles total into home runs this season. He has a titanic .299 ISO and has obliterated weak righties all season. Devers is the prime bat in the Boston lineup today.
J.D. Martinez has made 400 plate appearances and has hit 20 home runs, posting a .263 ISO and creating runs 49% better than average along the way. He has a .302/.373/.565 triple-slash, returning to form as one of the best overall hitters in the league. Martinez is well worth the discounted $4,700 salary on DraftKings and is easy to get to at $4,000 on the FanDuel slate.
Alex Verdugo is slashing .272/.340/.410 with nine home runs and five stolen bases this season. He has a .139 ISO that is a bit disappointing considering his overall quality and is creating runs 4% better than average. Verdugo makes a nice follow up to the main hitters in the middle of this lineup and he comes at a discounted $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings.
Hunter Renfroe has 15 home runs in 342 plate appearances this season, posting a .198 ISO. Renfroe is also creating runs 4% ahead of the average and slashing .256/.313/.455, slightly worse than his teammate ahead of him in the lineup. Renfroe strikes out more than Verdugo, though his 22.2% rate is at least acceptable given the power. For just $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,330 on FanDuel this is another supplemental player with upside who is easy to get to in Red Sox stacks.
Christian Vazquez has not produced like in the past. He has hit just four home runs in 322 plate appearances and is slashing .253/.301/.343 with just a .091 ISO and has created runs 25% worse than average. Vazquez is primarily relevant where catchers are required.
Franchy Cordero has made 105 plate appearances for the Red Sox this season, hitting one home run and posting a .094 ISO. In 420 Major League plate appearances in his career, Cordero has hit 13 home runs and stolen nine bases, which would make for a reasonable first two-thirds of a season or so if it had all happened this year. Cordero represents little more than a $2,200 or $2,000 dice roll, depending if it comes on DraftKings or FanDuel.
HR Call: Pete Alonso — New York Mets
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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