Welcome to the Roses of the Day, a column highlighting my MLB picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, & Yahoo.
My name is Chris Randone and if you ever watched The Bachelor or The Bachelorette, then you know getting a rose means everything. It symbolized the guy or girl giving them out has an interest in you. When you get a rose, it means you survive to keep fighting for love.
Well in daily fantasy sports it’s no different. We go through a list of MLB picks deciding who will survive and make the cut into our lineups. These players fight to help us win. A true definition of love. I’ve learned being on the show that you never give out roses just for fun – there has to be a meaning behind it. We’ll take that same approach here. For tonight’s rose ceremony I’ll give my Top Stack, Top Pitcher, Surprise Pitcher, & Surprise Stack MLB Picks of this main slate.
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Top Stack (Outside of Coors)
Los Angeles Dodgers, will you accept this rose?
Merrill Kelly has not been great by any means lately. Kelly will bring a 9.20 ERA over his last six starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers own a 5.3 run implied total and won’t be as highly owned thanks to Coors. Los Angeles has been crushing right-handed pitching on the road the last two months. Since July 1st, the Dodgers own the highest ISO (.268) and wOBA (.363) against right-handed pitchers on the road. The Dodgers have owned the highest walk rate (11 percent) during that time.Â
For a struggling pitcher, this is not a matchup you’d like to see. Kelly has surrendered over six runs in four of his last six starts while giving up ten home runs during that stretch. Merrill’s striking out batters at a below average rate of 18.9 percent. Falling behind in counts and putting runners on base has plagued Kelly as of late. The Dodgers present power and discipline at the plate which I think will translate into a big night for Los Angeles.
Surprise Pitcher (Draftkings SP2)
Felix Hernandez, will you accept this rose?
Felix Hernandez throwing 88 pitches in his first game back off the injured list gives me confidence to write him up. Listen, this sounds scary to roster him in Arlington but the Rangers strike out a ton and if you’re thinking of an SP2, this could be your guy. The Rangers own the third worst strikeout rate (27.2 percent ) at home against right-handers over the last two months. During this stretch, the Rangers have presented limited owning a .145 ISO and hitting only 16 home runs, which ranks second fewest. This is strictly about strikeout upside combined with price for an SP2 on Draftkings. I would avoid this play on Fanduel.
Surprise Stack
Miami Marlins, will you accept this rose?
Since July 1st, The Miami Marlins have been one of the better hitting teams against southpaws at home. The Marlins have hit the seventh most home runs and weirdly enough rank top 10 in ISO (.230), wOBA (.349) and wRC+ (122). Miami will face lefty Alex Wood. The Reds left-hander has struggled giving up power in his six starts this season. Wood owns a 25.8 percent home run to fly ball rate during this stretch and has given up 2.43 home runs per nine innings. Wood has only struck out 17.1 percent of batters this season which is below league average. Miami Marlins own a 3.8 run implied total and won’t be found anywhere in ownership. However, this contrarian play allows you to pay up for pitching and draws a favorable matchup people might not be seeing.
