Let that put to rest any talk of Clayton Kershaw struggling in the postseason now and forever. With the ace putting up a beautiful six-inning, two-hit performance in which he struck out eight and drilled the over for MLB prop bets, Kershaw dispelled all notions of his struggling. The Dodgers offense came through in a big way, pounding the Rays for eight runs, while the Rays only managed a Kevin Kiermaier solo home run against Kershaw and two late runs against the Rays bullpen.
The Rays will be looking to get in the series in Game 2 tonight, with lefty Blake Snell taking the mound. They will be facing Tony Gonsolin to start, followed likely by some key innings from Dodgers relievers. The Rays will be changing up the lineup tonight to get some of their lefty bats in against the right-handed starter, but we could see some mix-and-match action later in the game as the teams jockey for the advantage.
Once again, we’ll be utilizing OddsShopper to look at numerous books across the industry to find the best available bets for any wager. The site lays out player props, game bets and all the information you need in a real-time dashboard, making it simple to quickly find everything you need to get your money in good.
MLB Player Props – Best Bets: Home Runs & Strikeouts
Max Muncy – Over 0.5 Hits: -125 (DraftKings & Sugar House)
Muncy is priced among several hitters who are far less likely to come through based on their matchups, if they get into the game at all. Muncy should be in his regular spot in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, and unlike teammate Joc Pederson, Muncy does not see a decline in his number in same-handed splits. In fact, Muncy has hit lefties better than he has righties over the course of his career, putting up a .256/..362/.503 slash in 387 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a .229/.358/.477 in 1,176 opportunities against right-handed pitching. Muncy does strike out more against lefties, with a 27.6% career clip compared to a 24.5% rate against the opposite hand.
Rays starter Snell is a menacing, strikeout-heavy lefty who put up a 31.0% strikeout rate this season and has a 28.3% rate for his career. Since coming into the league, Snell has struck out 31.2% of left-handed hitters, making this a difficult overall matchup for Muncy. This is why we’re getting a discount on his ability to get a single hit despite his overall quality in matchups against lefties. When we also account for Snell’s tendency to come out of the game without getting through six innings, Muncy is one of the better options on the board for a hits prop bet.
Blake Snell – Under 5.5 Strikeouts: +100 (DraftKings & Sugar House)
As mentioned above, Snell is an excellent strikeout pitcher. The lefty has induced a 13.8% swinging strike rate for his career, 15.0% in 2020. His arsenal features a nasty 95-mph fastball with heavy spin that induces a high amount of swing and miss for the pitch, as well as a standard inventory of off-speed and breaking stuff that includes a changeup that is devastating against right-handed bats and entirely unused against lefties. The slider and curveball are effective against both hands, each inducing monster whiff rates for the season with 15% usage. Still, I like the under for our prop bet here.
The issue with Snell is the depth to which he will pitch in this game, Snell did not pitch beyond the sixth inning all season. In his three playoff starts, Snell has gone 5.0 innings twice and 4.0 innings once, though he only had a high pitch count in one of those games. In his most recent start against the Astros, Snell lasted 4.0 innings, throwing just 82 pitches, yielding two earned runs on only three hits while walking four and striking out four. While he was working on short rest, this kind of quick hook in what was not a bad start is something that is likely to factor in again for Snell, with the Rays needing a win to avoid falling to a 2-0 series deficit.
Over the course of the season, Snell’s strikeout high was nine, a feat he achieved three times. He struck out eight hitters in a fourth game and six in another, every other start had five or fewer, meaning he hit the over on this 5.5 strikeout prop bet just five times in eleven total opportunities this year. The Dodgers were the league’s fifth best team with just a 20.7% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. They were fourth in the league with an 11.1% walk rate in the split and their .336 on-base percentage against lefties ranked ninth in baseball, meaning this team is likely to put runners on and has an opportunity to chase Snell early. I like Snell to make this a close one but the numbers are saying this is a four or five strikeout game, not an eight or nine strikeout game.
Justin Turner – Home Run: +390 (Common Odds)
Turner has been one of the better overall hitters in baseball for most of his career. The right-handed third baseman has a lifetime .292/.369/.469 slash with a .177 ISO and a WRC+ 30% above average. While he’s never been the biggest home run threat in the league, Turner has 124 for his career and has been much more of a home run hitter the last four seasons prior to 2020. Blake Snell has been good at limiting the home run ball overall in his career, with just a 0.97 HR/9 mark, but struggled in 2020, allowing 10 home runs in his 50.0 innings, a 1.80 mark. In his 19.2 playoff innings, Snell has added another four home runs, continuing the season trend with a 1.83 HR/9. While this is likely just a blip in his overall career numbers, it is targetable information for a prop bet like this.
Despite not getting much power in general in 2020, Turner has hit the longball reliably in the split against southpaws over the last few seasons. In 549 plate appearances in 2019, Turner hit 27 home runs, 12 of them in just 179 plate appearances against lefties. Of his 21 home runs in 2017, 11 of them came in just 172 plate appearances against lefties. His ISO against the opposite hand over the past three seasons has been: .294 in 2019, .244 in 145 plate appearances in 2018, .324 in 2017, the bearded veteran does well against lefties and his home run possibility comes at an appealing price across the industry.
Turner is one of several Dodgers hitters to rank over the magic 10.0 mark in my home run model today. I would also consider the Muncy home run prop bet at +370 despite the same-handed matchup, as detailed above, Muncy does well in the split.
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