Fantasy MLB DFS: Happy Father’s Day, Sunday, June 16 has us with 11 games on the main slate for most sites such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft – so we will want to look to Yahoo! for our Coors Field Extravaganza fix.  There are several pitchers to target, but before you lock in your baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo!
[table id=1201 /]
FanDuel
FanDuel is going to be wild. Trevor Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on the slate by a mile, but I think he’s still the best option due to the matchup. The Tigers are bad. They strikeout more than average. They lean more to the right side of the plate. That adds up to my favorite starter. The good news is, if you’re not a fan of Bauer, every other pitcher is cheap. James Paxton is next in line. The difference between Paxton and Bauer is mostly ballpark (ignoring the talent difference).
The White Sox are in a hitter’s park, which makes it a bit scarier for Paxton, but I still expect him to be my second most owned pitcher. While he doesn’t go deep into games, he has massive strikeout upside. If I’m not paying all the way up, I dropping down to $7900 and grabbing Chris Archer. There’s no telling which Archer will show up, but sometimes you need to take a chance. The strikeouts are there. He just needs to limit damage. The Marlins are the easiest team in the league to face, so let’s see if Archer can right the ship.
DraftKings
DraftKings is similar at the top. Bauer is the most expensive pitcher, with a $1700 price gap between him and Paxton. I think Brad Peacock and Griffin Canning both look interesting if you aren’t paying up for Bauer. You can easily pair them both and still have enough money for a high end stack. There’s not a ton of fun in the mid-tier, so as I recommend Mike Foltynewicz, please note that I’m terrified. There’s so much power in the Phillies lineup, and Folty has shown a propensity to give up homeruns.
Him getting bombed is very much in the cards, even in Atlanta. I’m making the bet that a $7800 Foltynewicz can pick up a few strikeouts, limit damage and get out with 15-20 DK points. I like the idea of paying down even further, though. Jakob Junis is someone I roster regularly. He always seems to be priced $500 lower than I would expect. The Twins strikeout out a lot, so it’s a high risk/high reward spot. That’s exactly what I want in a GPP.
Yahoo!
Yahoo has the highest quality pricing of the three slates. Bauer is just $2 more than Paxton, so he’s a better option here than on the other sites. Paxton is the clear number two, with Peacock, Archer, Folty and Canning filling in behind him. Because of pricing, I really don like much below Archer at $37, besides Junis at $28. People will avoid him because of the Twins offense, but he’s a better pitcher than $3 above the minimum. I understand it’s a scary spot with their offense, but there’s a ton of swing-and-miss here. The upside is real. I project Junis for 5.4 strikeouts in 5.5 innings. That means a six inning, seven strikeout performance is well within Junis’ probable outcomes. That’s what I’m looking for at his price.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
