The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Friday, 6/25

It would seem as though the chalk never fails in fantasy baseball anymore, as the Blue Jays and Astros proceeded to punish any and all faders. Granted, there were certain bats such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. that came in substantially lower owned than the rest, so there were paths to getting different and reducing the overall ownership of those popular stacks. But still, the two highest-total teams going for the most runs again is not an enjoyable trend. Let’s hope this chalk streak snaps tonight, as there is a 13-game slate with tons of MLB DFS picks and options to sift through on DraftKings and FanDuel; may one of the lower-owned stacks from the Awesemo DFS MLB projections make their way to the top for a change.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | June 25

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Welcome to Groundhog Day

There is a 13-game bundle of games on this fantasy baseball Friday, and yet it might as well be another two-gamer with the way things have gone of late. The Astros are now winners of 11 straight outings while scoring double-digit runs in four of their past eight. They have been overwhelming chalk on every slate all week due to cake matchups versus the Orioles and now Tigers, and they simply haven’t disappointed. But as good of a spot as the Astros seem to be in, the Blue Jays are once again favored to score a little bit more, opening with an implied total of 6.5 compared to the Astros’ 5.9 number. Due to the friendly fences and 65% humidity in Buffalo (the Blue Jays current home with the U.S./Canada border shut down), they have the power to overwhelm Matt Harvey and the rest of the Orioles’ pathetic bullpen.

Sure, the ownership could come down slightly from yesterday’s numbers due to 26 teams to choose from tonight instead of just the 16 available on Thursday. Plus, first pitch is a ways from now, but there are possible weather concerns in Detroit that could mercifully take the Astros off the slate. Still, if that game plays, it will be another uncomfortable fade of the two top spots on this slate for ownership purposes. There’s no shame in investing in Houston, but long term it is best to be avoiding these chalky stacks on big slates as much as possible.

This is MLB DFS, not a sport like basketball where playing the highest-projected plays come to fruition at a substantially more frequent clip. And when ownership is so concentrated around two teams like it is tonight, taking the 24-team field to outperform those two spots is simply a better strategy. Plus, the Awesemo Top Stacks tool helps identify points of leverage on a slate, which makes it so easy to know what the best teams are to target relative to their chances of outperforming Houston and Toronto.


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If Spin Dips Don’t Matter That Much, Ride With Rodon

After doing consecutive MLB Deep Dives with Alex Baker, there have been a few takeaways regarding the recent MLB crackdown on foreign substances for pitchers. One, it hasn’t made the extreme impact others may have thought it would. Two, while it may impact some pitchers more than others, the top pitchers will most likely continue to be the top pitchers. And lastly, gamers should already be betting unders with the help of the new MLB Player Prop Tool anyway, as the market skews that direction since people love to bet overs as much as they do.

There will be a better idea just how impactful this ban is as we accumulate a sample size and look in the rearview mirror in a few months. But as for now, keep an open mind and not just assume every pitcher’s strikeout rate is going to fall off a cliff. Which points to Carlos Rodon, the most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate, who is currently the second favorite behind Gerrit Cole to win the American League Cy Young. After an injury-riddled 2019 and 2020, Rodon is in the middle of a renaissance year, accumulating an elite 1.86 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 36.6% strikeout rate in 2021. He has an average fastball velocity of 96 mph, generates tons of swings and misses on his breaking pitches (46.3% whiff on his slider is particularly impressive), and he limits hard contact after some issues in that department in previous seasons.

Considering he also gets a date with the Mariners that strike out at a 27.6% clip against lefties this season (fifth worst in MLB) and sport a paltry 86 wRC+ against that handedness (sixth worst), the spot couldn’t get much better for Rodon. That is, as long as one does not read much into the spin rates that noticeably tailed off in his last start (graph courtesy of baseballsavant.mlb.com):

MLB DFS picks 2021 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Yahoo ESPN CBS DraftKings FanDuel Carlos Rodon White Sox projections today weather optimizer sleepers TOp Stacks Top pitchers ownership expert predictions mlb odds betting picks lines today

It may seem minor, but those slight dips to the spin on his pitches could become more pronounced over time. Still, advocating for a fade of the most electric arm on the slate because of a one-start sample size feels incorrect. So as long as his swings and misses do not tail off drastically in light of the new foreign substance enforcement (it shouldn’t yet), riding with Rodon in MLB DFS is as safe as it gets on this slate.

Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.

Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

  • Just play Cody Bellinger.

Check out today’s MLB Strategy Show, with expert MLB DFS tips, strategy, fantasy baseball picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re live at 11 a.m. ET.

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Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.

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