Wednesday was far from ideal, as the highest-owned stack on the main slate by far put up 13 runs. Of course, no one could say the Astros were bad plays, as our expert MLB DFS projections and a date in Camden Yards against a bad starter and an abysmal bullpen is not a bad thing. But considering their massive ownership, it’s hard to say any made for good tournament plays in a highly variant game such as fantasy baseball. Hopefully the public learned a lot of the wrong lessons and keeps jamming in the chalkiest stack, as whatever we just witnessed is not the most profitable strategy long term. So with that in mind, let’s find some MLB DFS picks and strategies that can take us to the top on tonight’s main slate over on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | June 24
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Oh Goodie, Chalk Astros Again
There are eight games on tap for tonight, and once again there are two offenses that stand out significantly from the rest. The Blue Jays draw the favorable Orioles matchup this time around, leading to a slate-leading 6.3 implied run total, while the Astros are back to haunt once more with an implied run total of 6.1 against the Tigers. Just like a moth to a flame, the chalkiest stacks on any given MLB DFS slate tend to always be teams with the highest-implied run total, which makes sense since they’re the likeliest to put up the most runs and hence the most fantasy points.
What doesn’t make sense, however, is that every other team will be overshadowed by these two. And compared to the past few days, there are some infinitely better hitting conditions around the league tonight. There is 85 degrees and 37% humidity in Minneapolis, 86 degrees with 10 to 15 mph winds blowing out to left in St. Louis, and even Los Angeles has some abnormal humidity in the 50% range that should make Dodgers Stadium a little more favorable for hitters. Those are three decent spots to help stray away from the concentrated Astros and Blue Jays bats, so hopefully even one of those can outperform expectations and win the day.
Make sure to hit refresh on the Top Stacks tool leading up to lock, as sensitivity to ownership on these Astros slates of late has been much more important than one would think if just judging by the results. Identifying underrepresented teams and leveraging your lineups accordingly is the name of the game in MLB DFS, so keep trusting the process and err on the side too much of the under-owned stacks. And should the chalk stacks go off once again tonight, so be it.
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The New MLB Player Prop Tool
Those who were along for the NBA DFS ride this season might have seen the references to the NBA Player Prop tool a number of times on shows and in articles. Because of the links between DFS and sports betting, Awesemo is constantly using information provided by Vegas and combining it with world-class projections to help better inform decision making. The tool helped identify what the best bets on the board were, helping to realize which players might be over- or undervalued for DFS purposes and creating huge ROI over the course of the 2020-21 season.
And now that tool has reached the baseball streets, as the new MLB Player Prop tool has debuted here at Awesemo. Strikeout and home run lines have always been extremely helpful to analyze, as both are crucial in identifying the most fantasy-relevant plays on any given slate. And now, gamers can see which players might be getting undervalued in the betting market according to Awesemo’s projections, which calculate expected win percentage and expected ROI for any particular wager.
Look forward to this article referencing strikeout and home run props going forward, as it can truly put you on plays you’d never expect. For example, the Rockies’ Austin Gomber was pitching against a potent Padres lineup in Coors Field two weeks ago. However, he had an auspicious 6.5 strikeout prop that was higher in relation to other pitchers on the slate. Awesemo’s projections backed up that he wasn’t too far off from projecting for that number, so he became a core piece at super-low ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel. While he missed out on exceeding 6.5, he proceeded to put up a massive fantasy score at his price behind eight shoutout innings.
So in the weeks to come, get familiar with the MLB Prop Tool, especially those in states with legalized betting. The opportunity to capitalize on market inefficiencies can help bolster bankrolls and, with the help of the Top Pitchers tool, can help point to players that might be getting overlooked.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- Just play Nelson Cruz.
Check out today’s MLB Strategy Show, with expert MLB DFS tips, strategy, fantasy baseball picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re live at 11 a.m. ET.
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