Thursday was as straightforward as a pitching slate can get, with Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes finishing as the top two scorers at the position. However, finding the right batters was a different story, as it was basically one-offs or bust. Landing on the one-hole/eight-hole combo of Jonathan India and Kyle Farmer ended up being nearly a requirement to take down tournaments, as no other stacks (or mini-stacks, for that matter) took off enough to be potential winners. Today should make for an easier time finding stacks that succeed, as there are 28 teams to choose from on tonight’s 14-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. So let’s get to work finding a few of them, plus a few more MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS stacks and strategies to get to the top of leaderboards.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 2
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools, and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium MLB Player Rankings.***
A Pretty Wide Pitching Pool
Tonight’s pitching pool looks to be wide open, with the exception of Lance Lynn who sticks out like a sore thumb against an inept Tigers team. He saw his last start shortened to 47 pitches on account of a rain delay, so hopefully some see that and shy away. But that feels unlikely in modern MLB DFS, so the expectation is that ownership will flood to Lynn and spread out among the rest of the top tier. Working down the pricing, Drew Smyly is hard to pass on in a matchup against the Marlins at $6,700 on DraftKings. In cash games Lynn plus Smyly will most likely be the combination most lineups rely on.
But for tournaments, there are some incredible pivots this evening. Max Scherzer would be the chalk du jour on the top end if not for his salary (most expensive pitcher on the board on both sites) plus his matchup against the Dodgers, who are back to full strength (with the exception of Corey Seager). The Dodgers only strike out 22.8% of the time against righties, but Scherzer and his 35.4% strikeout rate carry undeniable upside against any team on any given night. If looking to get away from Lynn, Scherzer makes a ton of sense.
As for the mid-range on DraftKings and FanDuel, there are so many possibilities from $7,900 down to $6,600. Let’s run through a few of the top options in that range:
- Alex Manoah will return from a five-game suspension for the Blue Jays tonight (laughable for a pitcher considering that’s a normal rest period) and faces a Rays team that loves to strike out against righties (26.2% strikeout rate, fourth highest in baseball). His ownership could be scary low if people are scared off by the rain in Buffalo, but so long as that game goes, he’s good to go.
- Eduardo Rodriguez finally showed what his stuff is capable of against the Yankees his last start, putting up 26.5 DraftKings points on the way to his second consecutive quality start. His underlying stats have been impressive all season long, sporting a 35% hard-hit rate, .383 xSLG and a 27.4% strikeout rate. Factor in the ballpark upgrade getting to pitch in Oakland in under 60-degree weather, and this is a sublime spot.
- Logan Gilbert should be another name people click on frequently at just $7,200 on FanDuel and only $6,600 on DraftKings. He has progressively gotten better with each start in his first big league season and now draws a Rangers team with a 91 wRC+ and only two scary bats. In other words, if he can avoid giving up the long ball to the likes of Joey Gallo and Adolis García, his 26.2% strikeout rate proves the sort of upside that could exist for him in this spot.
Those three stick out above the rest, but keep refreshing the Awesemo Top Pitchers tool to confirm which mid-range options look like the best to pair with the likes of Lynn and Scherzer. Throw out ownership and the three mid-range plays above (plus Smyly) look to be the top options at their prices.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- Coors Field slates such as this one are terrifying, as the top two totals on the board both come from this game (Cardinals and Rockies). It will come down to ownership and their chance of being the top stack in the Top Stacks tool on whether to be over- or under-invested, but it’s hard to imagine having none of it today.
- Shohei Ohtani finally got a massive price bump on both DraftKings and FanDuel, sitting at $5,900 and $4,500, respectively. Still, against lefty Keegan Akin, Ohtani will make a contrarian spend-up purely due to giving up the platoon advantage. That shouldn’t necessarily be the case considering he has eight of his 28 home runs against lefties despite only 97 plate appearances against that handedness (206 plate appearances against righties). Sign up for a super low-owned Ohtani one-off in this spot.
- There has been an abundance of weather issues these past few days, as rain has seemed to affect at least half the games on every slate. Make sure to follow the @AwesemoMLB Twitter account run by the NewzGod, as he will keep tabs on what’s going on in New York City and Buffalo, tonight’s two trouble spots.
- Just play Jesse Winker.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
