The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Monday, 7/5

With no NBA on tap for today, there are some abnormally-large contests up for grabs on DraftKings and FanDuel, so let’s get ourselves right to work finding some MLB DFS picks and strategies that can help take us to the top. Don’t forget to be updating the Top Pitchers Tool and Top Stacks Tool throughout the day, as they will be massive keys to success on this nine-game slate when making your MLB DFS stacks.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 5

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Is It Time to Stop Picking On the Tigers?

One of the more interesting parts of playing MLB DFS is the research process, as so many numbers can point you to drastically different conclusions. There are so many noisy stats (RBIs, batting average) that can cause suboptimal decision making, so many incredible stats (xWOBA, wRC+) that have proven to be more predictive of future player performance, and sandwiched between all of these numbers is the argument of sample size. How many at-bats are enough to determine a hitter is either good or bad? Are batter-versus-pitcher (BvP) numbers relevant whatsoever due to such limited plate appearances compared to a season or career’s worth of data? And how many days/weeks/months must go by before one can accurately chart improvement or decline for any given player or team?

The reason for bringing this up is the Tigers, who on Sunday ruined the outing of yet another chalky pitcher in Lucas Giolito. It seems as though Tigers busting up chalk arms has become a theme over the past three weeks, so it felt worthwhile to take a look into what (if anything) was explainable about that phenomenon. Now, this is in no way an argument stating that a three-week sample size should be considered the be-all and end-all. But considering something very noteworthy happened in that time frame — the ban on foreign substance use for pitchers — it may be more useful than normal.

Looking at the Tigers’ record, as it would appear they are in the midst of a hot streak (another buzzword in the MLB DFS community). Here are their results from June 14 until now:

That is a 12-7 stretch for a ball club that is 38-46 for the season, a marked improvement. There are a few games with only one or two runs, but most of those seem to be seven-inning affairs due to forced double-headers. But on the whole, these are some decent outings by this Tigers lineup, with at least six runs scored in nine of these 19 games.

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But that is pretty surface stuff. Here are the advanced stats off of FanGraphs for that same stretch of games for this Tigers lineup against left-handed pitching since that is what they will face in Rangers starter Kolby Ballard tonight:

Again, these numbers are a drastic improvement from their year-long sample size where they rank dead last against southpaws in strikeout rate and are second-to-last with an 84 wRC+. Comparing those clips to the 23.1% strikeout rate and a 121 wRC+ above, there could be something going on or this could all be a fluke.

But is it that farfetched that a team could see a point of weakness and make improvements? Or that the decrease to spin rates across the league might make their lineup more effective than it otherwise would be? Plus, there are new additions to this big league roster in the form of Akil Baddoo and Eric Haase that have become everyday players due to performance. Considering both have around a 1.0 WAR, they are certainly improvements over other players the Tigers have put on the field in recent years.

So the real question becomes is this three-week winning streak a fad or a trend? Those who have been betting props with Awesemo’s new MLB Props Tool know how much lower pitcher’s strikeout numbers have been these past few weeks. And for a team like the Tigers that has struck out a bunch more in their year-long sample size than they have since the ban on foreign substances, getting the ball in play more frequently could certainly be helping their production. In summary, it will not be know what is going on here until more sample size is accumulated.

In MLB DFS — and most every DFS sport, for that matter — being ahead of the curve is the most profitable. It is why the first few slates of the season for every sport can be the most profitable for those who are happy to embrace variance and chaos. So it is not time to stop picking on the Tigers yet, but don’t be surprised if another chalky pitcher bites the dust against them tonight.

Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

• The wind is expected to be blowing out in Wrigley, so get excited for a potential Coors-esque slate with the amount of ownership expected to go to the Phillies and Cubs.
• The Brandon Woodruff and Joe Musgrove debate doesn’t need to be made on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings. But on FanDuel where the $1,800 savings to Musgrove might make the field opt to go his direction, side with Woodruff even more.
• Just play Joey Gallo.

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