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The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Thursday, 7/8

Eric Lindquist



MLB Fantasy Baseball DFS Monkey Knife Fight Picks predictions prop bets over/under home runs Nelson Cruz

Wednesday was another wild one in the fantasy baseball world, as the chalk Blue Jays and the nearly unowned Nationals combined to be the bats needed to take down tournaments. And pitching continued its trend of being far more unpredictable than expected, as Zack Wheeler surprisingly got knocked around by the Cubs despite great pitching weather in Wrigley Field. Hopefully tonight things can normalize a bit, but based on the last few weeks, who knows? This column will check Awesemo’s MLB DFS projections and find a few more MLB DFS picks and strategies for tonight’s seven-game slate.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 8

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Playing Both Sides of the Coin in Tournaments

It looks like the best bats on the slate could be lost tonight, as there is heavy rain predicted to linger for the Blue Jays – Orioles throughout the evening. With a Coors-esque 6.6 implied run total against lefty Keegan Akin, there is no doubt who the most popular team to stack up would be.

But if this game is indeed lost, the Twins carry the next-highest implied run total on the board (5.1). They will be facing Tarik Skubal, the Tigers southpaw who gives up a ton of hard contact (46.4% hard-hit rate) and has something of a walk problem (10.2% walk rate). Considering this Twins lineup sports the second-highest ISO against lefties (.187), there is no doubt the potential up and down this lineup, specifically with well-noted lefty masher Nelson Cruz. And if Josh Donaldson can return to the hot corner after missing four straight games this week, the lineup could spell even further disaster for Skubal in this spot.

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However, as much interest as Twins bats should garner, one could argue Skubal deserves just as much tonight. While that might sound counterintuitive to MLB DFS newbies, it is a commonplace tactic when building multiple lineups in this crazy, high-variance sport. That is because Skubal boasts a well-above-average 27.6% strikeout rate on the season, meaning that as much potential as there is for these Minnesota mashers to do work, it is likely that Skubal will mow enough of them down to put up a decent fantasy score. And if the hard contact can find mitts instead of the seats, there is potential for him to put up a must-have fantasy score at $8,200 on FanDuel and just $7,200 on DraftKings.

Make sure to refresh the Top Pitchers and Top Stacks tools leading up to lock, as ownership could dictate which side of this coin to prioritize more. But without a doubt, this is a prime spot to be invested in both the Twins and Skubal, especially on a smaller slate with fewer arms and stacks to target.

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The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.

Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

  • Everything discussed above with Skubal could easily apply to Pirates projected starter J.T. Brubaker against the Mets tonight. He has a slightly lower strikeout rate at 23.1% but has a price point of $6,500 on DraftKings that makes him a solid potential SP2 option to pair with aces Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish.
  • Christian Yelich is $5,900 on DraftKings on name recognition alone, as his .241 average and lackluster five home runs on the season are way below expectations at the moment. It feels strange to say this considering his track record over the past few seasons, but this is a hard pass.
  • Just play Eric Haase.

Tune into the MLB Strategy Show at 11 a.m. ET for all of our free expert MLB DFS picks and advice for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

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