Monday’s fantasy baseball slate was pretty wild with 1% Brewers stacks and top-of-the-order Orioles launching lineups up the leaderboards. The optimal build from the get-go was finding cheap stacks to fit into Trevor Bauer and Freddy Peralta lineups, topping them off with one of Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani (or both) as one-offs. That definitely ended up being the winner, so let’s focus on finding similar ways to get a leg up on the competition for tonight’s massive 15-game main slate over on DraftKings and FanDuel, hopefully finding the right MLB DFS picks with the help of Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections and strategies to get to the top.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | June 29
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Please Stick to the Rivers and the Stacks That You’re Used To
Tuesday provides a massive 15-gamer, which means there is a smorgasbord of bats and arms. Brandon Woodruff looks as though he will be (and should be) the pitcher du jour, but there are a ton of SP2 options on DraftKings and plenty of tournament pivots for FanDuel purposes. And with Coors Field back — plus super-cheap pricing on the visiting Pirates, who are mostly lefties facing a righty with pretty typical platoon splits in German Marquez — it’s not too hard to figure out where a few of the chalkier spots might be. Make sure to utilize Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool on every slate but especially on these larger slates where finding a few offenses in great spots at low ownership is made even easier than normal.
So rather than go through a bundle of pitching and hitting options in the main section of this article today, let’s dive into some strategy — specifically a few of the mistakes made by the field in large-field GPP’s on large MLB DFS slates. With the help of Lineup Study on Fantasy Cruncher, look at last Tuesday’s $18, $50,000-to-first tournament, taking a look at the top five finishers:
First place went to “summit87,” who used a 3-3 stack to win by a razor-thin, 0.40-point margin. While that’s obviously a huge score, 3-3 is a pretty insane stack type to make itself to the top spot, although he is undoubtedly $50,000 richer because of it.
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But the focus should be on the three 150-max players that take up the second-, fourth- and fifth-place spots. All three players utilized a core five-man stack, which is the most used stack on DraftKings because batters on the same team are so correlated together in fantasy baseball. In other words, capturing the upside of a team doing work is more important in attaining a top tournament performance than playing mostly the highest-projected players like one might in NBA DFS.
Still, as known of a concept as that is to most, it was shocking to see less than half the field implement five-man hitter stacks in this contest:
The stack types get thrown off a bit because pitchers are included as part of the team stack, which is why there are 3.3% six-player stacks on the bottom. But that also means not every one of those 49.8% of five-player stacks are five batters, which indicates less than half the field went to the five-hitter stack in this tournament.
Of course, in any form of DFS, the goals is to be zigging when others are zagging. So if the entire field were running five-batter stacks, there would be some viability to running some more of the contrarian/suboptimal 3-3 hitter variants like what took down first. But based on these numbers, the field isn’t close to a place where one should be considering getting too nuts with stack types. And there are definitely ways the best players in the world deviate off of five-mans, Alex Baker being one in this very same tournament. But as Pablo Picasso said, “learn the rules like a pro so you can break them like an artist.”
That means for the vast majority, the rule should definitely be to just run five-batter stacks in tournaments tonight. Whether that is of the 5-3, 5-2, or 5-1-1-1 capacity can be up for more debate, but until the field starts jamming in proper five-batter stacks at a higher clip, getting the most upside looks like the right way to go.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks ToolThe Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.
Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- The Red Sox versus Brad Keller, the Blue Jays facing Chris Flexen and the Astros against whomever the Orioles roll out tonight will most likely be the most popular non-Coors spots. Utilize the aforementioned Top Stacks tool at Awesemo to help you decide which path to take, but due to the size of the slate alone, it’s unlikely any team (besides the Rockies, perhaps) will go crazy over-owned.
- Can a lefty/lefty matchup for Kyle Schwarber against Rich Hill slow him down at this point? He has four multi-homer games in his last nine outings, so having a share or two in this spot isn’t wild at this point, but a necessity.
- Just play Fernando Tatis Jr.
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