The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Tuesday, 7/6

Monday’s fantasy baseball slate was quite the doozy, as the Phillies bats came on late with 13 runs, the Pirates’ Ben Gamel put up a 40-spot to break the slate at sub-2% ownership, and the Cleveland combination of Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes popped up in a lot of top lineups. And as far as pitching went, only a chalky Joe Musgrove failed hard enough to punish every lineup he appeared in. All in all it was an exciting slate, but now it’s time to dig into tonight’s behemoth 14-gamer on DraftKings and FanDuel. Because it is such a massive slate with a number of ways to go based on ownership, let’s focus mostly on strategy today with some MLB DFS picks to fill out MLB DFS stacks.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 6

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Late Swap: Not Just for NBA

Those who read any of the NBA Slate Starter articles this year are familiar with its many conversations on late swap. Late swap is a tactic that many look at as simply replacing a hurt player to ensure there are no zeros in a lineup. That is true, but that is just the most basic component of it, as the true edge in late swap exists by being able to make adjustments to lineups based on how they are doing throughout the night. As a quick rule of thumb, the two main functions of late swap in MLB DFS tournaments are to make moves to aim for the top of the leaderboard, or to try and salvage a minimum cash with lineups after a brutal beginning to the night for either pitchers or hitters.

Last night there were quite a few lineups that had Pirates and Cleveland bats with massive fantasy outings in the early window of games. In that instance, simply playing the best plays in the best spots for the remainder of the evening would have been no problem since neither the Pirates nor Cleveland were popular whatsoever. That could have been a curse in disguise due to the Musgrove misfire, but in the event a chalky Fernando Tatis Jr. was the only remaining batter (he homered), it also could have worked out splendidly.

But those who stacked up the Braves — who only managed to hang up one run in their outing against the Pirates — had dead lineups entering that same Padres nightcap game. So if left with something like Musgrove and Tatis as the only remaining players and did not pivot off of it, the result was bad. Of course, Tatis also has the upside to hit two homers and perhaps salvage a lineup on his own. But going to Xander Bogaerts at less than half the ownership — or Trae Turner at virtually no ownership — would provide an even better opportunity to cash that lineup. And in a high-variance sport such as fantasy baseball, it would be no surprise to see either elite player outproduce Tatis in a one-game sample size.

• MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mariners Bats (April 25)
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• DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Manny Machado (April 25 Main Slate)
• MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
• Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
• Stokastic DFS on Youtube

The same late-swap rules apply if using a five-man stack in the late-night games and the other three batters flopped in the early session: Simply pivot to a lower-owned stack. And if one leaves a bunch of salary on the table, it does not matter since the teams in the best spots regularly underperform relative to the entire rest of the slate. Awesemo’s Adam Scherer says it best when he brings up the Top Stacks tool: Even the best teams in the best spots only finish as the top stack on the board around 15% of the time. That means 85% of the time the field is going to outperform the hefty ownership going to the chalkiest spots. Plus, on these massive 14-game slates with almost every team in action, the field outperforms the chalk at an even higher clip.

Long story short, any stack can go off at any given moment for a crooked-numbered inning. But in the event that things look bleak, start getting comfortable shifting failing lineups away from chalk spots in the evening. More than likely gamers will have to deviate from chalky pitchers since West Coast offense tends to be a bit under-owned due to the hot and humid East Coast/Midwest hitting environments during the summer months. But in the event the Yankees are stacked up tonight against Justus Sheffield, consider jumping ship to the Mariners if they are lower-owned and the lineup is already dead in the water.

Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

• It looks like there is rain in the forecast that could affect the best pitcher on the slate (and on planet Earth), Jacob deGrom. As if anyone needed another reason to be following the NewzGod in premium Slack and on Twitter @AwesemoMLB, staying apprised of this situation could prove paramount on this slate.
• Considering the Phillies just put up double-digit runs in a Wrigley Field wind game on Monday, expect them to be perhaps the most popular option on Tuesday. However, with teams like the Blue Jays in Camden Yards and the Rangers facing gas can Jose Urena, there are enough spots that will pull ownership away from this spot. Make sure to be refreshing the Awesemo Top Stacks tool repeatedly today, as knowing whether or not this spot is going to go over- or under-owned could change lineups drastically.
• Just play Nick Castellanos.

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