Tuesday was an awfully frustrating night for those that deviated off the main chalk bats. With the likes of Kris Bryant, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley doing damage at massive ownership for a 14-game slate, there was no way around needing some combination of the three to take down a tournament. And pitching continues to be a stone-cold disaster, although the Astros bats covered up a lot of the issues with highly owned Lance McCullers by providing him the win. But regardless of yesterday’s results, contrarian is the name of the game in fantasy baseball, so it is time to find more low-owned MLB DFS stacks today to get to the top on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 28
Eloy, My Boy
Wednesday’s 11-game slate seems to set up rather similarly to yesterday. There are scattered aces at the top of the pitching board, the wind is blowing out in Wrigley for Reds – Cubs, and Eloy Jimenez is going to be highly owned on DraftKings. Jimenez returned on Monday night batting cleanup immediately in the potent White Sox offense. He was obviously mispriced for the situation at $2,500 the past two days and remains so at just $2,800 tonight. And to make matters worse, Jimenez went yard yesterday, which should only shoot up his ownership to an outrageous degree.
So how does one decide what to do with such an obvious play such as this? Jimenez sported an absurd 55.7% hard-hit rate with a 16.5% barrel percentage in 2020, which are outrageous numbers that put him in the top echelon of hitters in the game. He also does not get shorted at the plate with only a 5.7% career walk rate, meaning he is up there to do damage and not accumulate the 2 points here and there that will not win anyone a tournament. And facing lefty Kris Bubic, who sports a paltry .478 xSLG, gives us loads of hard contact and does not miss bats with his 19.1% strikeout rate, the spot could not get much better for Jimenez.
In other words, he is an autoplay for cash games. But as far as how to treat Jimenez in tournaments, there is no question he will among the highest-owned bats on the board. Plus, the Top Stacks Tool will surely have the White Sox at or near the top of the board due to their hefty 5.8 implied run total, so there is no overlooking this spot. That means being particular with the ownership in the rest of lineups with Jimenez in them is paramount to success in large-field tournaments tonight. If rostering the likes of Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney, the obvious SP1/SP2 combination on DraftKings today, understand how many other lineups will have the identical construction. That is a ton of competition to be dealing with in a sport where bats are so highly variant from day to day.
So Jimenez is no doubt the best point-per-dollar play tonight. But the case can always be made for fading a popular bat in MLB DFS, especially with this many games and this many pivots on a slate. After all, anything less than 14 fantasy points on DraftKings is probably getting passed up in tournaments, so simply be prepared for that outcome if rolling with 30% of the field and rostering him. Still, the chalk continues to go nuclear seemingly every single night, so why would today be any different?
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Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- The Top Pitchers Tool is sure to love the aforementioned Wheeler and Heaney, but the strict pricing on DraftKings for inferior pivots almost demands playing a bunch of both. On FanDuel, Tyler Mahle at $7,300 and Madison Bumgarner at $6,400 look a lot different than their $10,200 and $9,500 respective price tags on DraftKings. Consider playing both sites tonight as a result since it will be easier to stomach those plays on a site where they do not cost an arm and a leg to roster.
- With the trade deadline fast approaching on Friday, keep checking out all our shows and content on the Awesemo YouTube channel, specifically Live Before Lock to stay apprised of any developing situations. The NewzGod does an incredible job of updating the @AwesemoMLB Twitter handle as well, so keep those notifications on as well to know if someone might be on the move or scratched right before lock.
- Just play J.T. Realmuto.
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