Those who did not know the harsh realities of fantasy baseball and rostered Jacob deGrom on Tuesday sure know now. Owned by over a third of the field on FanDuel and nearly half the field on DraftKings, the Mets game was postponed despite multiple tweets from their owner that they would wait out the rain in New York. Sometimes the Weather Gods work for and sometimes against DFS gamers. Luckily, Wednesday is a new day, so let’s get to work finding some useful MLB DFS picks and strategies using Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections for tonight’s nine-game MLB DFS main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks | July 7
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Whichever Way the Wind Blows
One of the fun/awful parts about playing MLB DFS is everyone is forced into being partial weathermen/weather women by default. Unlike basketball and hockey, which are played in a bubble, baseball deals with the elements on the daily, meaning gamers must pay particular attention to temperature, humidity, wind, rain and everything in between. Just look at the past few days with the Phillies and Cubs, as winds blowing out in Wrigley Field have led to incredible hitting environments, evidenced by the 41 total runs in two days.
But it would seem the tables have turned in Chicago, as a number of weather websites are predicting winds coming in from left field at 10 mph this evening. This has resulted in a starkly different run total (seven) and removed the Phillies from top stack consideration after consecutive days of breaking slates. However, at least one Phillie will make rosters over and over as a result of this fortuitous wind change: Starter Zack Wheeler.
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Unlike his teammate and fellow ace Aaron Nola yesterday, Wheeler draws a substantially better pitching environment, so long as the light rain in Chicago holds off for this evening. The peripherals on Wheeler make him by far the best pitcher on the board:
There is nothing Wheeler has not excelled at this season. He limits hard contact at an elite rate, keeps hitters under an expected batting average of .200, does not get in trouble with walks and has struck out over 30% of the batters he has faced this season. And while there may be concern for particular aces losing spin rate (and thus strikeouts) in the aftermath of the sticky substance situation, Wheeler does not appear to be one of them:
Besides his changeup, which he throws less than 5% of the time, his array of pitches has not seen any dip in spin rate. And as if that were not good enough, he also gets to face a Cubs team that strikes out at a league-high 26.8% of the time versus righties. In other words, Wheeler at $10,300 on DraftKings still feels underpriced in these conditions against this teams, making him one of the more sure-thing pitchers in quite some time. Be sure to check in with the Awesemo Top Pitchers tool to see how he grades out with his hefty $11,200 tag on FanDuel, but he should still be a priority over there as well.
Try Our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks ToolThe Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. Like what are the highest-projected stacks, what are the probabilities they will hit, and how does that compare to the ownership? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack is the top stack on the slate, how owned the stack will be and the leverage you get by using it.
Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- None of the 18 teams on the main slate opened with a total above five runs, an anomaly considering it is the middle of summer. That will make the Top Stacks tool especially important to refresh in the moments leading up to lock, as finding the underrepresented teams in nearly identical spots will provide a huge leg up on the field in the long run.
- In today’s edition of “play this lefty versus this lefty,” Yordan Alvarez faces Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea. For whatever reason, the fantasy baseball community ostracizes elite lefties facing the same handedness, which is ironic because they certainly do not do the same for righties. So considering Alvarez’s still-elite .306/.374/.500 slash line against lefties on the year, he will make for one heck of a contrarian one-off in this spot.
- Just play Giancarlo Stanton.
Tune into the MLB Strategy Show at 10:30 a.m. ET for all of our free expert MLB DFS picks and advice for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
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