Tuesday, Sept. 15,we are back with a robust dozen games on the main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Miami Marlins vs. RHP Tanner Houck – 5.3 implied runs
This is back-to-back days recommending the Marlins at home. How 2020 is that? Houck is a rookie right-hander who will be making his debut in The Show. Word is that he is fully stretched out and should be in line for 80-plus pitches. Of course, we have seen countless rookie hurlers melt down in their debuts, so that is taken with a grain of salt.
Houck was a three-year starter at the University of Missouri, logging 300.2 innings with an 8.7 K/9 in the SEC. He was selected in the 12th round of the 2014 draft by the Blue Jays before choosing the college route. Next he popped up on the radar as the ace of Team USA. The Red Sox made him the 24th overall selection in the 2017 draft. The slider is his best pitch, and it has been noted in several prospect articles that it really gives righties trouble. We will be focusing on the lefties first with Corey Dickerson and Matt Joyce. Boston has only one lefty in the bullpen, which should give Joyce a solid chance of staying in the game.
The Boston relievers have been doing a pinata impersonation this season, allowing a league-worst 6.62 ERA. Their 4.59 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA indicate that they have been unlucky, but at 13.5 games behind Tampa Bay, they are just playing out the string on this season. Starling Marte and Jesus Aguilar are the righties to target, and we can toss in rookie Jazz Chisholm for salary relief swinging the stick from the left side.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
New York Mets at RHP Jake Arrieta – 5.1 implied runs
Arrieta had arguably his best performance of the season two starts ago in New York against these same Mets. However, on the season he is still carrying a 5.54 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and just a 6.45 K/9 rate. Lefties continue to give him trouble with the last 675 rolling up a 1.68 HR/9, 10.2% walk rate and a .200 ISO. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto continue to go overlooked by most gamers, as does Dominic Smith. Since the start of 2018, this trio has a .213, .236 and .255 ISOs, respectively.
From the right side we have the light-tower power of Pete Alonso, who has a whopping .299 ISO in his last 642 righty/righty matchups. Robinson Cano seems to be finding his way out of his slump, and we can go back the the 37-year old who has fashioned solid numbers in the abbreviated season. Jeff McNeil is a little dinged up. If he makes the lineup, he will likely be at the bottom of the order, so he is just a dart throw tonight.
Evening-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Houston Astros vs RHP Kyle Cody – 5.2 implied runs
Yes, we can absolutely look to Coors Field, but you already know that. Houston is a nice pivot in their matchup with rookie Kyle Cody, who will likely be limited to 50-60 pitches. He will then give way to the mediocre Rangers relief corps. With their premium price tags, Alex Bregman and George Springer make nice pivots away from the Coors Field Extravaganza. We can augment our stack with lefties Michael Brantley and the surprising Kyle Tucker, who is far from a household name. The one downside of the Astros stack is that it will take up all of our outfield slots.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner – 5.7 implied runs
Veteran southpaw Bumgarner has allowed 11 home runs in only 26.1 innings. For a regular full-season workload, that would equate to around 80 home runs allowed. For perspective, since the beginning of the 2018 season, Matt Boyd has allowed 79 home runs, leading the league in that time frame.
Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are the obvious plays, and similar to the Astros’ recommended players, their salaries rival those in Coors Field tonight. We can get some definite salary relief with Justin Upton, Albert Pujols and Max Stassi. The elevated price tag should keep the masses away from David Fletcher. This season he has done a phenomenal job of getting on base, and then the boppers behind him have been bringing him in to score.
Arizona Diamondbacks at RHP Julio Teheran – 4.9 implied runs
We are going with a bonus team tonight in the Diamondbacks, who are facing veteran righty Teheran. This season in just 27.1 innings, Teheran has allowed seven home runs, which works out to about 60 on a full workload. While that is not nearly as bad as Bumgarner, it would still lead the league by around 12-15 dingers in any typical season.
Kole Calhoun is severely underpriced on DraftKings, and the former Angel has been destroying opposite-handed hurlers with a .300 ISO and amazing plate discipline this season with a 16.1% walk rate. Christian Walker brings the lumber from the right side of the plate, and that does not bode well for Teheran. David Peralta has been a disaster this season, but historically he rakes in opposite-handed matchups. Josh VanMeter is an extreme punt option who may be near the top of the order, and switch-hitting Eduardo Escobar is always in play.
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