Friday, Sept. 17, has an early-game set with three doubleheader matinees and then a 12-game main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
Early-Slate Picks
Philadelphia Phillies at LHP Robbie Ray – 4.0 implied runs
Do not let the low implied run total fool you, this is a 7-inning game being played in Buffalo. There is some conflicting information as to who will be starting for the Blue Jays between Ray and Ross Stripling. We are going to be targeting whichever hurler gets the nod in this matinee game.
Ray has had a disastrously bad season with six walks in three different starts and another where he issued five free passes. Currently he is allowing 1.9 baserunners per inning and has ceded a dozen home runs in just 43.1 innings. That rate would put him in line for an all-time worst mark of around 60-65 if this were a full season. He is still striking out opposing hitters like a madman with an 11.84 per nine inning rate. That is the 11th-best rate in the league for any hurler logging at least 40 innings.
Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are the trio to target in this matchup. Roman Quinn is a cheap source of power, and Alec Bohm is showing some serious pop against southpaws in his limited at-bats.
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Main-Slate Picks
Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Alex Cobb – 5.1 implied runs
The Devil Rays are in Baltimore this weekend and will be saying hello to old friend Alex Cobb. This season the nine-year veteran has allowed eight home runs in 39.1 innings evenly split between righties and lefties. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Cobb has allowed a 2.10 HR/9 to same-handed batsmen with a .260 ISO and a low 14.7% strikeout rate. Lefties have rocked him for a 1.51 HR/9 and a .190 ISO in the same time frame.
While the Rays are running thin with Ji-Man Choi, Mike Zunino and Yandy Diaz on the injured list and Austin Meadows dealing with a sore oblique, there is plenty of opportunity here for the understudies to provide us with contrarian plays. Nate Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Meadows are the trio to target at the top of the lineup. Rookie Yoshi Tsutsugo is having a solid inaugural campaign from a power perspective. Randy Arozarena and Willy Adames pack the pop from the right side of the dish.
Evening-Slate Picks
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Danny Duffy – 5.1 implied runs
Absolutely you should be looking to the Coors Field Extravaganza, but if pivots are something you are in search of, look to the Brewers. Duffy has had a decent season, but he has still allowed eight home runs in 46.5 innings. It generally does not cost him as often as one would think because he does a nice job of limiting baserunners.
While Milwaukee has been mediocre on offense this year, they consolidate their production when facing lefties, which is helpful for DFS gamers. Additionally they are in the top third of the league against southpaws by most metrics.
Ryan Braun, Jedd Gyorko and Avisail Garcia all top the .200 ISO mark over the last two plus seasons in righty/lefty matchups. Christian Yelich has a .276 ISO in lefty/lefty matchups during that same period. A full stack is probably a bit much, but some one-offs and pairs are just fine if we are doing a little home run hunting tonight.
Late-Slate Picks
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi – 5.0 implied runs
Please note, this could be a lot tougher matchup than it appears at first glance, and it is also being played in Petco Park with Seattle as the home team. I was considering writing up the Athletics here against Logan Webb, but their lineup is watered down without Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty being dinged up along with the first pitch temperatures being in the upper-50s. Jaime Barria was the next target that caught my eye, but it is fellow righties that are the bane of his existence, and the Rangers do not have too many with power in their lineup.
The Angels are the obvious play and in line as one of the best stacks of the night, but where is the fun in talking about that? So here we are looking at the Padres against second-year man Kikuchi. Last year the former Japanese league star was knocked around for 2.25 HR/9 against lefties and a 1.94 HR/9 against righties. This season he has allowed just two round-trippers in 37 innings.
The pitch mix this year shows a completely different profile than his debut season. First, his fastball is consistently 2-3 mph faster at 95.1 than it was last year when he averaged 92.5 with it. Second and most importantly, he has unveiled a cutter that he did not throw last year, and he is now using it 40% of the time. Also, he eliminated his changed from 15.7% to basically zero.
While I still like the Padres here, this is not the smash spot most are going to assume it is tonight. On the late slate we can look to Fernando Tatis Jr.and Manny Machado, but on the main slate I would rather spend on Coors Field hitters. Wil Myers is solid, and of course Austin Nola will be saying hello to some old friends.
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