Friday, Sept. 25, our final regular season Friday, has a 10-game main slate locking at 7:05 p.m. EST on DraftKings with a nine-gamer beginning at the same time on FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Early-Slate Picks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Vincent Velasquez – 4.7 implied runs
Hat tip to Velasquez, who ceded only a solo shot in his last outing for the best start of the shortened season while facing Toronto. However, he still has been someone to pick on whether he is working out of the pen or as a starter. Lefties have always given him fits with the last 587 rolling up a 1.70 HR/9, 10.22 BB% with a .235 ISO. Same-handed hitters have gotten to him as well, but they do suffer a 28.1% strikeout rate, which helps mitigate some of the damage.
Even without lefties Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi, the Rays can still field a formidable lineup. Brandon Lowe knocks the cover off the ball in opposite-handed matchups, and he is our prime focus. Nate Lowe should be batting cleanup and we can sprinkle in Yoshi Tsutsugo and Joey Wendle for a full stack. If you are looking for differentiation from the masses, then it can come in the form of Kevin Kiermaier, who is often overlooked hitting in the bottom third of the order.
Main-Slate Picks
Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Chris Mazza – 6.0 implied runs
The Braves stand out with their lofty 6.0 implied run total, and it is good to see that DraftKings and Yahoo have priced up all of the key hitters. Even FanDuel moved most of the top Atlanta batsmen above $4,000. Mazza went 70 pitches in his last start, and that feels about right before he gives way to the deplorable Boston bullpen after 3-4 innings.
With a league-worst 6.36 ERA posted by their active relievers, the Red Sox have the worst mark in the league. To be fair, they have been a unlucky as their 4.45 xFIP and 4.32 SIERA are middle-of-the-pack marks. The main issues is an 11.1% walk rate with the second-highest home run rate at 1.68 HR/9 innings.
We could see some of the regulars getting a day off after the rain delayed start last night, but Atlanta is tied with San Diego for the second-best record. Keep in mind that while we already know that the Braves will be at home, tiebreakers are key when the final eight teams make it to the bubble rounds.
My favorite hitters tonight are Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud and Adam Duvall. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are great, but they will be popular. Ozzie Albies has lost a lot of DFS fans being dropped in the order, but that works in our favor, and we can also look to Nick Markakis as a discount dandy on most sites if he makes the starting lineup.
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Evening-Slate Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Tyler Mahle – 4.7 implied runs
This has been a nice season for Mahle, who is rounding into a very talented pitcher. However, he can be had by lefties like most of the Cincinnati hurlers, and that is where we will want to focus. While he continues to improve, the last 617 opposite-handed hitters have compiled a 2.24 HR/9, 12.0% walk rate and .247 ISO. For comparison the 635 same-handed hitters have just a 1.17 HR/9, 5.0% walk rate, .145 ISO and a whopping 24.7% strikeout rate.
On the full slate, we can utilize the Twins as one-offs or pairs if they are relatively close in the batting order. Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jake Cave (a likely replacement if Nelson Cruz sits) are the first three to target. From the bottom of the order, switch-hitters Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez are excellent options. Just a couple of weeks ago they were at the top of the order and in the heart of the order, respectively, holding things together when the injury bug was rolling across the squad.
Late-Slate Picks
Oakland Athletics at LHP Yusei Kikuchi – 4.7 implied runs
This is a tough slate, as we have four good pitchers. However, Kikuchi is going to be the one that most are going to want to target. Last year he was getting his sea-legs after a successful career in Japan. The Mariners did not push him too hard and kept his pitch counts and starts in check. However, he was still very susceptible to power. Against 580 righties, the southpaw allowed a 1.94 HR/9 and lefties got him for a 2.25 HR/9. This season those rates have dropped to 0.89 HR/9 and 0.00 HR/9 as Kikuchi has allowed just three home runs in his 37.0 innings.
The biggest difference is his pitch speed and mix. He is throwing his fastball nearly 2.5 mph faster than last year, and he is now featuring a cut fastball 38.8% of the time and completely abandoning his curveballm which he threw 15.7% of the time last year.
Since we know that on the late slate gamers are going to go for the top part of the order, I am willing to roll with the masses on Matt Olson and Stephen Piscotty. Then for differentiation I will look to Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy at the bottom of the order.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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