Saturday, Aug. 15, has a solid seven-game “main” slate. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! Saturday is sort of all over the place with regards to how the sites are handling the slates. It appears they are mostly ignoring the games prior to 6pm ET. Then we have a “mini-main” slate with the games in the six o’clock hour followed by the traditional main slate. Please note that Yahoo is starting their “main”slate at 6pm ET.
There are some weather concerns in Baltimore with light rain leading to heavier overnight showers. Also there was a positive Covid-19 test on the Reds, so they may be shut down.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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MLB DFS Early Slate Picks
Philadelphia Phillies vs. LHP Steven Matz – 5.1 implied runs
Oh my, the chickens have finally come home to roost. After four seasons of sneaking by with home run issues, it seems like regression has targeted LHP Steven Matz. Through four starts and 18.2 total innings, the veteran southpaw has already allowed eight home runs. The 18 punchouts and three walks are solid, but man the hits are leaving the yard at a one-in-three rate — a great thing to target in MLB DFS.
Rhys Hoskins has struggled with power so far this season against lefties, but he has just 18 plate appearances against them. Instead, focus on his two-year .200 ISO in righty/lefty matchups. J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura also have .200 ISOs in this time frame and they are solid options as well. Finally, we have Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius who both have elite lefty/lefty power in a park that favors home runs.
MLB DFS Main-Slate Picks
Oakland Athletics at RHP Kevin Gausman – 4.6 implied runs
Small sample size alert, but there were 15 runs in last night’s game. Here is what I wrote yesterday and it is worth noting that again, we have just a seven-game data set.
The Giants have only played six games at home this season. Tomorrow, it is going to be almost 80 degrees at first pitch, which is about 15 degrees warmer than what we saw in the last home stand. Why does this all matter? Well, those six games had an averaged run total of 12.7, which is eye-popping to say the least.
This offseason, the bullpens in Oracle Park were moved away from territory into center field to facilitate a change in terrace seating. This effectively brought in the fences six to nine feet and shortened “Triples Alley” as well.
Here are the 2020 Oracle Park dimensions (courtesy of BallParkDigest):
Left-Field Foul Pole: Stays at 339 feet
Left-Center Field: 399 feet (down from 404 feet)
Center Field: 391 feet (down from 399 feet)
Right-Center Field (Triples Alley): 415 feet (down from 421 feet)
Right-Field Corner: Stays at 309 feet
Look, it was just a six-game sample size, but some increase in offense was the desired result of the change. Keep in mind that this park has been the best pitchers park FOR YEARS, but wouldn’t it be just a little fun to be in on any potential changes before The Masses?
RHP Kevin Gausman has been solid this season with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP despite starting two games in LA against the Dodgers juggernaut and one in Coors Field. On FanDuel, the Athletics are essentially free with only Matt Olson and Matt Chapman topping $2,800 among the projected starters. Tony Kemp and Robbie Grossman provide plenty of salary relief for full-stacks on DraftKings and Yahoo. So what is the best way to approach things?
Well Olson and his .267 ISO should be the cornerstone for any stack followed by Chapman’s .264 ISO and Mark Canha’s .182 ISO for their two-year power trends against right-handed hurlers. Stephen Piscotty gets a lineup boost with Ramon Laureano serving his suspension and he is an often overlooked MLB DFS gem. Khris Davis is looking more like Chris Davis with his recent performance and that is not a good thing, he is not really a priority for me as I would prefer Grossman and Piscotty and we only have so many outfield slots to go around. Marcus Semien is solid, however, I would rather roll out Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gleyber Torres as shortstop one-offs with my Oakland stacks.
MLB DFS Late-Slate Picks
San Diego Padres at LHP Alex Young – 5.1 implied runs
In just 272 lefty/righty matchups, LHPÂ Alex Young has already allowed 13 home runs. That is courtesy of a 1.83 HR/9 with a 43.3 HH% and a .216 ISO. If a batter swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate puts the ball in the air, it has a one-in-five chance of leaving the yard. Same-handed hitters have a 1.24 HR/9 with just a 21.2 K% and a healthy 9.3 BB%.
It should be no surprise that Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to be popular a popular MLB DFS target tonight with his .308 ISO in 102 career plate appearances against lefties. Manny Machado .294 and Wil Myers .270 ISO have also excelled against southpaw over the last two seasons.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
