Friday, Aug. 28, we are looking at a 12-game main slate beginning 7:05 p.m. EST on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! It looks like we will have an even dozen games on the main slate. There is a mix of good and bad pitching along with a Coors Field Extravaganza.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Chicago Cubs at RHP Tyler Mahle – 5.1 implied runs
Keep an eye on the weather in this one as there will be roving showers in the area. Mahle is a talented pitcher, but his Achilles heel is opposite-handed batsmen. Over his last 573 righty/righty matchups, he has been solid with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate and a .146 ISO. Against hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate it has been an entirely different story. The last 562 lefties have nailed him for a whopping 30 home runs. That works out to a 2.26 HR/9 with a .248 ISO. The robust 11.7% walk rate is doing him no favors either.
Anthony Rizzo (.226 ISO), Ian Happ (.247) and Kyle Schwarber (.278) are the trio to target. Across 81 plate appearances facing right-handed hurlers this season, Happ has a .338 ISO and a .355 xISO, do not shy away from the increasing salary. Victor Caratini is the punt catcher du jour on DraftKings ($3,500) and Yahoo ($8) if in the lineup.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Learn MLB DFS: DraftKings + FanDuel Primer
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Derek Holland – 5.4 implied runs
This will be the third time this season that Holland has faced the Brewers, and it also marks consecutive starts. For the most part he has held them in check across 10.2 innings with a 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10 punchouts. On the other hand, the six walks are alarming as is his season-long 6.17 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Since the beginning of the 2018 season in a mixed starter-reliever role for the Giants, Cubs and Pirates, right-handed hitters have simply crushed Holland. Of the 46 home runs he has allowed in this time frame, 45 have gone to righties. This works out to a 1.99 HR/9 rate and the excellent 24.3% strikeout is not going to save him with his 10.4% walk rate.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. LHP Nick Margevicius – 5.3 implied runs
Last year, Margevicius had a disastrous rookie campaign with the Padres. Over 57.0 innings he allowed a whopping 6.79 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP and 12 home runs. This year through 19.2 innings he has had much better results with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, though he has still already allowed four round-trippers. It is a small sample size, and the only notable change I see is a jump in his first pitch strike rate from 54.0% to 88.6%. That could be aided by his fastball and slider velocities increasing from 88.3 to 90.3 and 80.3 to 83.7, respectively.
Regardless, we know where the production is likely coming from the Halos tonight. Mike Trout, aka the best hitter in baseball is phenomenal against lefties. Anthony Rendon has an elite .290 ISO and 14.4% walk rate when facing opposite-handed pitchers. Albert Pujols is definitely in play for the late slate as well as Angels full stacks. Finally, look to rookie Jo Adell and veteran Justin Upton as near-minimum-priced options across the DFS landscape.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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