Friday, July 24 brings us a robust 11-game main slate on SuperDraft, DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Full Slate Action
Greetings, Gamers! Baseball is back and we have 26 teams in action on Friday.
Similar to last year I will be providing a review of one stack for the main slate as well as the viable sub-slates with at least two games on the docket. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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Main Slate MLB DFS Picks
Cleveland Indians vs. LHP Danny Duffy – 5.2 implied runs
This one jumps out as Cleveland should be rolling out a fully right-handed lineup against southpaw Duffy. This is possible because their top four projected batsmen are all switch-hitters. However, the two hitters I am most interested in are outfielders Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. Since the beginning of the 2018 season they have a .373 ISO and a .245 ISO in right/lefty matchups respectively.
On FanDuel this duo is basically free at $2,700 and $2,200, and they make it very easy to roster the ace pitchers of your choice. On DraftKings you can add in fellow outfielder Domingo Santana to bring the average salary of this trio down to $4,134. Gamers often hesitate to look to players outside of the top five or six in the batting order, giving us some leverage against the field.
Evening Slate MLB DFS Picks
St Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Joe Musgrove – 5.0 implied runs
Keep in mind that we have the universal designated hitter, which means National League game totals are going to be about a half a run higher. The Pirates are without both Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon for the season. That means we are going to be picking on them a lot. Currently their rotation sets up after Musgrove with Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Derek Holland and Steven Brault.
Musgrove is a decent pitcher but by no means a staff ace. Last year he allowed at least five runs in eight of 31 starts, and it happened in five of 19 starts the season prior. While he does have an above-average ground ball rate and a serviceable strikeout rate, he does not dominate.
Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter will be the popular options, but we can double down with Paul DeJong for his multi-extra base hit upside and look to Yadier Molina on sites that require us to take a catcher. Whichever is at the top of the order between Kolten Wong and Tommy Edman is also in play
The Cardinals are essentially free on FanDuel with Goldschmidt being the only player with a salary above $2,800 Friday. This makes them a fine complementary option in double-stacks on the main slate.
Late Slate MLB DFS Picks
Houston Astros vs. LHP Marco Gonzales – 5.5 implied runs
Regardless of whether or not the Mariners know what pitch is coming, the Astros should post crooked numbers against LHP Marco Gonzales. DraftKings got ahead of the salaries, but FanDuel only managed to slightly goose the pricing for the core plays. George Springer, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are the primary targets and need no introduction.
Houston rivals any other team on the main slate and is the clear late slate choice. For differentiation we can consider the bottom third of the order with both Josh Reddick and Aledmys Diaz posting .195+ ISOs against lefties over the last two seasons. Whomever is behind the plate for the Astros could also be part of a wrap-around stack on the short slates.
Oakland Athletics vs. LHP Andrew Heaney – 4.7 implied runs
While I was initially not looking to the Athletics, Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer laid out an excellent case for them on the Early Bird podcast here. Heaney has solid strikeout stuff, but he also has a 1.71 HR/9 and a 41.30 FB% with a 41.8 Hard% against the last 906 opposite-handed hitters he has faced.
We know that Oakland is loaded for bear and they like to employ heavy platoon lineups against opposing hurlers. It looks like Matt Olson will be the only lefty in the lineup and he can hold his own in same-handed matchups.
On FanDuel’s main slate I prefer the A’s as cheap one-offs or perhaps duos as we look for home run upside. On DraftKings they are evenly priced in the $4,000-$4,300 range, and I like them more there as a full stack.
We can also get a nice discount at the bottom of the order on DraftKings with Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder and Sean Murphy. Just know that Pinder is a likely pinch hit candidate as soon as a righty enters the game.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.