Following a Wednesday which featured some nail-biter Pennant-chase baseball, we enter a Thursday slate of Divisional Series elimination games with some iffy starting pitching on the menu as we make our MLB DFS picks based on the Awesemo grading system (although today will be slim pickings).
The Atlanta Braves will bring right-handed pitcher Kyle Wright to the mound in hopes of sweeping the dark horse Miami Marlins, who will be relying on their young stud in Sixto Sanchez to salvage their 2020 season. Oakland is placing their trust in Frankie Montas to do their season the very same justice as well, while Zack Greinke will be looking to help carry the Houston Astros to another American League Championship Series.
The Los Angeles Dodgers took a walk on the wild side Wednesday night as they rolled the dice on closer Joe Kelly to get out of a brutal jam against the never-say-die San Diego Padres, creating a closeout sweep scenario for Los Angeles on a bullpen day, starting with hurler Julio Urias. Tampa Bay find themselves on the brink of an ALCS berth also, rolling out lefty Ryan Yarbrough in hopes of closing out the explosive New York Yankees and Jordan Montgomery.
As the Divisional Series is winding down heading into the weekend, let’s get to some MLB DFS picks for Thursday’s main slate of mixed bag pitching options.
MLB DFS Picks: Thursday’s Best Divisional Series Pitching Plays
Cristian Javier – Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s – DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,200
The Houston Astros were all but punching their tickets to the ALCS with less than three innings remaining on Wednesday before Oakland opened the flood gates a la Chad Pinder‘s seventh-inning three-run home run, paving way for another day and a Game 4 of the ALDS series. Today the Astros will look to rookie right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier in their effort to try closing out the A’s once again.
Cristian Javier has had a rather successful rookie season and has some standout strengths specific to this Oakland A’s offense. First on most everyone’s DFS pitching priorities is the question of strikeout potential, where Javier is pitching slightly above league average at 25.2% (MLB avg 23.4%), while the Oakland Athletics are striking out at nearly the exact league average for hitters at 23.7 K%. However, when it comes to facing like-handedness hitters in fellow righties (such as the seven Javier’s projected to face today), Cristian Javier is blowtorching batters off the plate at an impressive 30.3% strikeout rate.
While Javier’s 1.82 HR/9 drives up the concern for roster consideration, the Athletics have hit 71 home runs on the year (19th in Majors) and an 12.7 HR/FB% (also 19th). More importantly is that Javier has been garnering the fly ball from opponents at one of the highest rates in the league among pitchers at a 52.2 FB%, and a HR/FB rate of 15.3% that’s just above league average (14.8 HR/FB%). In that same vein, the Athletics have led the league in popping into fly balls at an escalated 41.1% (league avg. 35.7 FB%).
With his all-impressive 0.99 WHIP, 0.194 BABIP, and stranding batters at an outstanding 86.2%, Cristian Javier provides plenty of reason to roster him on a slate where pitching is questionable throughout.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points NA, Value NA
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points NA, Value NA
UPDATE: Zack Greinke has been named the starter for Game 4. Javier could still factor out of the bullpen, but he will not begin the game.
Sixto Sanchez – Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves – DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $9,500
Yet another rookie stud pitcher featured on Thursday’s MLB main slate, Miami’s Sixto Sanchez has been dynamic in his first season with the Marlins and had himself an even better postseason thus far. In his first playoff start in his young career, Sanchez blanked the heavily favored Chicago Cubs over the course of five innings, pitching four-hit, no-run baseball, striking out six Cubs and putting up 33 FanDuel points (18.5 DraftKings points).
The Marlins’ backs are against the wall and are entrusting the first-season talent to the mound, but Sanchez may very well be the spark this Miami needs to live another day. With a more-than-decent 1.20 WHIP, .222 BAA, Sanchez is preventing damage done at a respectable level by allowing just 0.69 HR/9 and stranding 75.9% of batters on base. While his strikeout numbers over the regular season could use some improvement at a 20.9% rate, he’s certainly upped the ante in these playoffs while striking out 27% in his last outing with a 10.8 K/9.
The Braves had a smoking-hot second half of the regular season and are clearly a force to be reckoned with for opposing pitchers. Atlanta has struck out against right-handed pitchers just above league average at 23.6% and converting fly balls to home runs at the eighth-highest rate in MLB (18% home run/fly ball). Specifically against Sanchez, the two meetings have been pale opposites of each other: An awesome 46-point outing on Sept. 8, and then his outright dud for 3 points just over two weeks after. But Sanchez showed grit and an unwillingness to flinch in a big moment against the Cubs, so there’s faith to be had here.
However, as remains the mantra of postseason MLB DFS, beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to these matchups, and we’ll have to rest some confidence in the strengths we can muster of what’s available on each slate. Outside of his strikeouts generated, Sanchez will have to attempt to get the Braves to pop into fly balls while keeping them in the park, to which Atlanta’s popping up into at the majors’ fourth-highest against right-handed pitching (39.5% fly ball vs. righties). It’s certainly more the GPP play than a cash game component, but Sanchez has the proven talent to provide solid fantasy numbers against these Braves.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value E
Jordan Montgomery – New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays – DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $8,300
Although the Rays have already bludgeoned him this season, we have to find the gumption to roster Jordan Montgomery in a survival elimination game for the Yankees. Montgomery has actually had a very passable season, tossing for a 24.7% strikeout rate while walking just 4.7% of batters. His 1.30 WHIP and .264 batting average against are nothing awful, as they’re right on par for around league average (give or take).
He’ll have to find an anchor in his strikeout game against this Rays team that has the highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in the majors at 28.5%, yet they also manage to convert that into power on the flip side of things, so it’s going to most certainly be a tall order for Montgomery. Tampa Bay is hitting this side of the split at a .217 ISO, accounting for fourth-highest in MLB against left-handed pitchers. At the same time, the Rays are hitting for a .294 BABIP against lefties, which is middle oft the pack for the specific category. That is indicative of not always getting the runs manufactured, as they also have an 86 wRC on the season versus left-handed pitchers (12th in MLB).
It’s the little things that count on bullpen days, and Montgomery tends to provide about five innings of work if the going is good. He’s going to be a very chalky play given the DNA of the slate’s offering, projected for over 70% of the field’s rosters, which I don’t think is necessarily the greatest idea to match them on. But Montgomery makes sense on a slate with such lackluster options, especially on two-pitcher sites.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value C