We’ve arrived to Major League Baseball’s Divisional Series round of the 2020 Playoffs, with Tuesday being the first slate of more than two games to select MLB DFS picks. The Wild Card best-of-three introductory round was a first for the format in regards to series length and number of teams, and it has not disappointed.
With the Houston Astros and New York Yankees getting head-starts to their American League Divisional Series matchups by winning their first games of the round on Monday, will the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics get back on track with wins in their respective ALDS Game Twos?
In the National League, the dark horse Miami Marlins are still alive and kicking, taking on Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves in the first game Tuesday. Out West the battle of SoCal is under way as the Los Angeles Dodgers, with their best record in baseball, square off with the up-and-coming San Diego Padres, who used the long-ball to fight their way back to a series win last round after a 0-1 start. With all of that offered on the docket for Tuesday, Divisional Series MLB DFS picks will be a blast for the taking.
MLB DFS Picks: Tuesday’s Best Divisional Series Pitching Plays
Framber Valdez – Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics – DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $10,000
Astros left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez has quietly had himself an excellent 2020 season and a great start to the postseason. While maintaining sturdy strikeout numbers, though not the top of the heap, Valdez has managed a 1.12 WHIP with a 26.4% strikeout rate while only walking 5.6% of batters. Every bit as impressive has been Valdez’s ability to stave off opponents from scoring, surrendering 0.62 home runs per nine innings with a 2.85 FIP.
Valdez is projected to face a fairly balanced batting order in regards to handedness, as he’s aligned to face five righties, three lefties and an ambidextrous Robbie Grossman. The mixed bag on behalf of Oakland makes sense, considering the static nature of Framber Valdez’s splits. His WHIP and strikeout numbers are negligible differences between opposing lefties and righties, which is an added silver lining when managers try to pinch hit for a vantage point.
Speaking of the opposition, the Oakland Athletics have not fared the greatest against left-handed pitchers, striking out 24.2% of the time against them. The Athletics’ 93 wRC+ versus lefties is reflection of their offensive ineptitude in said vein, as they’re popping into fly balls against left-handers at the sixth-highest rate in the majors at 37.7%. With insult to injury, the A’s aren’t doing all that much in terms of converting fly balls either, ranking 23rd in home run/fly ball rate at just 12.4%. And while Oakland isn’t notorious for hitting into ground balls, Valdez is certainly a master of engineering them, as he led all pitchers in ground ball rate at an insane 60%.
While the spend-up option isn’t always comfortable to sit with, Valdez provides a number of reasons to lay confidence in rostering.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C
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Tyler Glasnow – Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees – DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $9,600
The New York Yankees have come out in the 2020 MLB Playoffs looking as menacing as ever, with a modern day Murderer’s Row averaging 10.33 runs per game throughout their three games played in the postseason. Yet, the question will be their ability to keep such a high level of output afloat, and Tyler Glasnow has the strikeout stuff to keep the Rays in this series.
Glasnow had an electric 2020 regular season, particularly when looking at his strikeout capabilities, which nobody on this slate comes close to this season. Glasnow had the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB’s regular season, an astounding 38.2%. The concerning stat column for Glasnow in this matchup are his home runs allowed (1.73 HR/9), especially in consideration of the Yankees’ league-leading 20.1% home run/fly ball rate. However, Glasnow’s solid 1.16 WHIP, .281 BABIP and 2.75 xFIP in combination with stranding hitters on-base at 78.6% lend confidence to his run-prevention and damage-minimizing abilities.
Glasnow’s 14.28 K/9 leads the majors and is the primary selling point in rostering him in this difficult matchup with New York. While he’s pitching into ground balls at 38.7% (below league-average 42.7%), the Yankees are hitting into ground balls well above that benchmark with a 44.1% ground ball rate. Also very much worth noting, despite the public reluctance to acknowledge batter-pitcher history, Glasnow torched this Yankees team just over a month ago for an outstanding 33.70 DraftKings points (55 FanDuel points) on nine strikeouts and no earned runs in six innings of a two-hit masterpiece.
As I recently mentioned in a previous edition of Spotlight Pitchers, considering that we’re now in the heart of the playoffs, hardly any matchup is going to be rainbows and four-leaf clovers when it comes to this level of talent contending during Pennant-run baseball. Glasnow’s savage strikeout demonstration and resilience to go deep into games make him worthy to roster with confidence.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Max Fried – Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins – DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,700
The 2020 season has been laden with surprises throughout the 60-game, 2 1/2-month sprint, which includes the Marlins. The South Beach branch of “lovable losers” not only shocked the world once this year by playing playoff-bound baseball to reach the postseason for the first time in 17 years, but they have since stunned the original brand of “lovable losers” by knocking out the Cubs in the National League Wild Card series. But the Braves are heating up at the right time, and that includes their left-handed pitching talent Max Fried.
Max Fried, while not by any means a standout strikeout machine, has proven to be a sturdy pitcher selection for daily fantasy purposes and a slot-in SP2 on two-pitcher formats such as DraftKings. At the same time, while he isn’t heralded for the strikeout upside, Fried has still managed a very passable 22.3% strikeout rate that’s just below the league average (23.4%). Given the seven right-handed hitters in the Marlins batting order that he’s facing today, Fried’s strikeout rate is in fact better against the right-handed hitters at 24.4%. The Marlins are also striking out at 23.9% against left-handed pitchers, 10th-highest in the mn=ajors.
However, Fried’s glaring strength is his uncanny ability to negate home runs against him, with a 0.41 HR/9 against right-handed hitters (and 0.32 HR/9 overall). Going hand-in-hand with this pitching defensive mastery is the extraordinary feat of manufacturing ground balls from opposing batters, with an incredible 56.1% ground ball rate. Neither of these demonstrated advantages for Fried bode well for the Marlins hitters. Miami lacks entirely in the home run department, hitting just 60 home runs on the season (25th in majors) and also hits into ground balls at a 46% clip against left-handed pitchers (seventh in MLB).
With slim picking on this four-game slate loaded with hitting talent, beggars can’t be choosers, and Fried draws one of the best matchups of the day with consideration to his strengths meshed with the Marlins’ offensive shortcomings.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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