Welcome to Wednesday night in the MLB! We have a plethora of starting pitcher options on tonight’s 11-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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Top MLB DFS Value Plays
Jacob deGrom – Mets vs. Marlins – FanDuel $10,700, DraftKings $11,000
We’ll kick things off with deGrom, who’s been consistently elite through his first five starts. He’s holding a 2.66 xFIP with an 11.25 K/9 in 28 innings of work. DeGrom is facing the Marlins for the third consecutive time here, and it’ll be extremely interesting to see the adjustments both sides make. It was deGrom who prevailed in his last start, striking out seven Marlins across six innings while holding them scoreless. He was nearly unhittable after the first two innings.
The only issue with deGrom has been hit pitch count or lack thereof. He’s only been over 100 pitches once, and it’s hard to justify the salary when the ceiling isn’t there. With that being said, I expect the leash to lengthen as the season progresses and every win grows in importance. The Mets are in close to must-win mode and deGrom is their one guy every fifth day that is as close to a lock as it gets. While there are other options on this slate that are cheaper and solid values, there is something to be said for the safety deGrom brings to the table. The Mets are -265 favorites, and the Marlins are implied to score just 2.76 runs.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, B
Dinelson Lamet – Padres vs. Mariners – FanDuel $9,300, DraftKings $8,600
When it comes to Awesemo’s value rankings, Lamet is a top-two option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Lamet has been exceptional through his first six starts, tossing six solid starts (33 IP) with a 12.15 K/9 and 3.74 xFIP. It was encouraging to see him throw 97 pitches in his last start as it looks like the Padres get more and more comfortable letting him go deep. He’s one of the highest upside pitchers in baseball with a leash, striking out 12 batters per nine innings. He gets a matchup against a Seattle team that’s more than willing to swing and miss.
We’ve been picking on the Mariners all year long and it’s no mistake as they rank 20th against right-handed pitching with a .314 wOBA while striking out 25.5% of the time. Lamet will have no issue striking out close to 10 in this matchup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him last into the seventh inning. If you want some more funds to play with, I don’t mind pivoting from deGrom to Lamet. The ceiling is similar and the ownership won’t be nearly as high. There are offenses worth paying for on this slate, and it’ll be tough for deGrom to be optimal with so many cheaper options.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, A
Robbie Ray – Diamondbacks vs. Rockies – FanDuel $7,200, DraftKings $6,900
Another team we’ve been picking on all season long is the Colorado Rockies. When outside of Coors Field, the Rockies rank 28th in baseball with a .272 team wOBA and 24.3% strikeout rate. They are truly a terrible team away from home and the matchup against Robbie Ray is an interesting one. Ray has been blatantly bad in 2020, but the upside has still shown through with a 11.67 K/9 attempting to hide the ugly 8.33 BB/9. Yikes. If Ray can right his command, his upside is through the roof against a neutered Rockies team that’s more than willing to strike out. Ray is extremely cheap on both sites and offers up the kind of ceiling you look for in a tournament. Whether as a way to pay down on FanDuel or as an SP2 on DK, Ray is an excellent choice.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, A
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, A
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