Welcome to Monday night in the MLB! We have a plethora of starting pitcher options on tonight’s seven-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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Top Value Plays
Aaron Nola – Phillies vs. Nationals – FanDuel $10,200, DraftKings $10,400
Nola comes into the slate as Awesemo’s highest-projected starting pitcher, and it’s hard to disagree. There are a lot of solid options on the mound tonight, but none of them stand above Nola and the consistency he’s shown thus far. Through six starts, Nola has posted a career-best strikeout rate (12.03 K/9) and xFIP (2.53). He also went 113 pitches in his last start against this same Nationals team, so it’s fair to say any leash that was there has been removed. He tossed seven solid frames less than a week ago in this identical matchup, striking out eight and allowing two earned runs. He ended up with 49 FanDuel points.
The Nationals are implied to score a slate-low 3.58 runs by Vegas and the Phillies come into the game as comfortable -185 favorites. The Nats are a solid lineup from 1-9, but they are a lot worse against righties (.324 team wOBA) and strike out 21% of the time. Nola has a strong history against this team, and there’s no reason to expect anything other than another quality start with 8-10 strikeouts. You’ll have to pay the price, but there’s nothing more valuable in MLB DFS than safety at SP in cash games. Nola gives you just that on both sites and isn’t too expensive to the point where he hinders the rest of your lineup.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, D
Framber Valdez – Astros vs. Rangers – FanDuel $9,900, DraftKings $8,100
Valdez has been a monster this season, and while it hasn’t come completely out of thin are, this dominance also wasn’t necessarily expected. The young southpaw posted a 5.32 ERA in 70 innings last season, walking over five batters per nine and getting himself into more trouble than he could get himself out of. He’s gotten that BB/9 down to 2.11 per nine and has upped the K/9 to 9.39. Opposing batters are also sporting a .307 BABIP, so there’s no sign of any luck here. The 2.83 xFIP might be the most impressive of all, and this matchup against the Rangers is going to give him an opportunity to keep the train chugging.
Outside of his first appearance of the season against the Dodgers, Valdez has been over 40 FanDuel points in every start. He’s gone seven-plus in three of his last four starts and threw pitches in the eighth in two of those. Valdez is turning into a workhorse for this Astros team, and they need everything they can get with Justin Verlander likely out for the season. The Rangers rank 23rd in baseball against lefties with a team .290 wOBA and 24.3% strikeout rate. Valdez is worth considering in all formats, as I fully expect another seven relatively clean innings.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, B
Josh Lindblom – Brewers vs. Tigers – FanDuel $6,800, DraftKings $6,600
If you’re looking for value on this slate, we don’t have much to choose from. None of tonight’s starting pitchers are exquisite values at their respective prices, so it might not be a terrible idea to pay down and stack some expensive bats. Last year’s KBO MVP has been great to start his Brewers career but has left some meat on the bone from a DFS perspective, as he hasn’t been over 90 pitches in a single game. With that being said, that just might be enough for Lindblom to go five or six innings here and strike out just over a batter per inning. The price is cheap on both sites, and the matchup couldn’t be better against the lifeless Tigers. Lindblom also has incredible upside if he does get close to 100 pitches, which isn’t all that unlikely. The Brewers need to win every game they can at this point, and the Tigers are a team they can’t lose to.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: D, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, C
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