Welcome to Friday, Sept. 11, in MLB! We have an interesting slate of starting pitcher options on tonight’s nine-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top Value Plays
Shane Bieber – Indians at Twins – FanDuel $11,600, DraftKings $11,000
Bieber has been nothing short of the best pitcher in baseball through the first few months of the season. He’s now struck out at least 10 batters in four of his last five starts and has allowed a combined three earned runs. He’s a sporting a ridiculous 14.47 K/9 that’s backed up by a 1.72 xFIP and a .197 wOBA against. He’s now 7-0 on the season and in the driver’s seat for the Cy Young Award. He’s extremely efficient and keeps his pitch count low with elite command, doing this immense damage while never exceeding 110 pitches. The price is high on both sites, but he’s the safest pitcher in baseball right now, and that’s priceless in MLB DFS cash games.
With the weird scheduling and teams playing most of their games in division, this is a matchup Bieber has already dominated twice. He struck out a combined 23 Twins and picked up two easy wins. The Twins strike out 24.5% of the time against right-handed pitching and rank 16th in .ISO. They’re implied to score just 3.25 runs by Vegas, though the Indians are only slight -115 favorites. Kenta Maeda has been great on the other side of the diamond, and that is one negative if you want to get picky about the matchup. With that being said, I fully expect another 10 strikeouts, and the win will be up for grabs. You’re playing with fire if you fade Bieber in any format.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, B
Lucas Giolito – White Sox vs. Tigers – FanDuel $10,800, DraftKings $10,500
This is the same team Giolito got warmed up against before throwing his no-no against the Pirates. He went seven innings and struck out 13 Tigers while picking up the win just five nights before. He allowed just three hits and didn’t face any danger for all seven innings. He’s been a completely different pitcher in 2020, striking out 12.35 batters per nine while posting a 2.97 xFIP. He’s done a good job at throwing early strikes, and he hasn’t walked more than one batter in four consecutive starts. If he can keep his control up to par in this matchup, it’ll be tough for him to do anything other than dominate.
The Tigers are one of the worst teams in the league and rank 26th against right-handed pitching with a .300 wOBA. They strike out more than any other team at a brutal 28.3%. They’re implied to score just 2.76 runs, and the White Sox are massive -310 favorites. That gives Giolito a nice boost on FanDuel, as the win is much safer than it is for Bieber. I like both of these expensive options but prefer the savings and upside you get with Giolito. The matchup is close to perfect, and he seems like the safest bet in cash games.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, B
Garrett Richards – Padres vs. Giants – FanDuel $7,400, DraftKings $7,500
The popular play in this price range will likely be Brandon Woodruff, and it makes sense when you look at Vegas totals. I’ve just watched both games this year when Woodruff faced these Cubs, and they seemed to have his number for the most part. They hit the ball hard 30% of the time in both starts, and Woodruff only struck out nine in two combined starts. I’d rather go with the upside of Richards, who will be facing off with the Giants. He’s coming off a dominant performance and has looked like the pitcher of old. It’s the second time in five starts Richards has gotten through the seventh inning, and it’s encouraging to see the Padres leave him in past 100 pitches routinely. The Giants rank 23rd against righties and strike out 24% of the time. They’re implied to score 3.92 runs, and the Padres are -200 favorites. If I pay down, it’s for Richards in both cash games and tournaments.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, E
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