Welcome to Saturday, Sept. 12, in MLB! We have an interesting slate of starting pitcher options on tonight’s nine-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. Our options aren’t great, but there are value gems hidden in the dirt. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top Value Plays
Zac Gallen – Diamondbacks vs. Mariners – FanDuel $10,000, DraftKings $9,400
This is an all-around tough MLB DFS slate and it cascades from the starting pitcher position. We had a couple of options in the Giants @ Padres game, but it’s been canceled due to air quality and now we must dig even deeper. Our saving grace is Gallen, who faces off with the Mariners and is the surefire top-dog on the slate. He’s striking out 9.82 batters per nine innings and sporting a 3.64 xFIP. He hasn’t been under five innings in eight straight starts and has gone seven-plus in five of the last seven. For a youngster, Gallen does a great job of eating innings and keeping himself in the ballgame late.
The Diamondbacks are -175 favorites and the Mariners hold a slate-low implied total of 3.79. The Mariners are a middle of the road offense and they rank 17th against right-handed pitching with a .316 wOBA and 22.5% strikeout rate. They’re one of the least powerful teams in the league, ranking 24th with a .154 ISO. They don’t have much talent at the bottom of the lineup and rely heavily on 1-5 putting up runs. If Gallen is able to work through the few land mines, he’ll strikeout close to double digits and pick up an easy win. The Mariners aren’t a patient team and he’ll go at least six here. Give me Gallen as the SP1 on both sites in cash games and tournaments.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, B
Dakota Hudson – Cardinals vs. Reds – FanDuel $7,800, DraftKings $8,300
If you want to pay up, I would ride with Gallen and stay away from getting fancy. If you’re looking to save some funds, Hudson and the Cardinals are comfortable -150 favorites over the Reds and Vegas expects the Cards to pick up the win. The Reds are also implied to score just 3.78 runs, which comes in as the second-lowest on the slate. Hudson is striking out 7.84 batters per nine innings while sporting a career-low 3.93 xFIP. He’s just 25-years-old and still approaching his prime, so don’t put too much value in years past. This is his third time facing this Reds teams and he’s gotten the best of them in each of their last two meetings.
The Reds strike out at an immense 24.7% clip and rank 20th against righties with a .312 wOBA. They have a few strong lefties to worry about, but the bottom of the order is K-heavy and they don’t have much power or the ability to string together hits. Hudson faced these same Reds two starts ago and put up 49 FanDuel points on the back of seven innings and seven strikeouts. It’s tough to expect another performance like that, but we don’t need one at this price. There isn’t much to love at SP on the slate overall and Hudson fits in nicely on both sites.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, C
Trevor Williams – Pirates @ Royals – FanDuel $6,400, DraftKings $6,500
If you’re looking to go uber-cheap, Williams is an option worth considering. The price is extremely solid on both sites and there’s value to be had without much opportunity cost on this slate. Williams hasn’t been as bad as most pitchers in this price range, eclipsing 20 FanDuel points in six f his last seven starts. He’s worked six-plus innings in two of the last three while striking out a batter per inning. He does a good job of avoiding free passes and the long ball. The Royals rank 26th in baseball against right-handed pitching with a .299 wOBA and a woeful 24.2% strikeout rate. There’s no reason to expect anything other than six or so solid innings here and the price is in the basement on both sites.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: D, A
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, B
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