Welcome to Sunday, Sept. 14 in MLB! We have an interesting slate of starting pitcher options on today’s three-game slate, ranging from the extremely expensive to cheap. Our options aren’t great, but there are value gems hidden in the dirt. The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top Value Plays
Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers at Padres – FanDuel $10,600, DraftKings $10,400
We only have three games on tonight’s main slate, so our variety of pitchers really isn’t too bad when you consider just how small the slate is. With that being said, it’s not comfortable anywhere tonight, and that all begins at starting pitcher. We have one of the best arms in the league in Kershaw, but he’s facing off with one of the best offenses in the Padres. Kershaw is as good as ever, striking out 9.66 batters per nine while sporting a 3.00 xFIP. He’s walking under two batters per nine and has been comfortable going over 100 pitches in just about every start.
The matchup isn’t easy, but it’s not as bad as people seem to think. The Padres are middle of the road against lefties, ranking 12th with a team .334 wOBA while striking out close to 23% of the time. They have some land mines to avoid, but the bottom of the order is terrible and they hit righties much better in general. If Kershaw has his stuff working, he will have no problem putting up another six or seven relatively clean innings. He’ll strike out a batter per inning, and the Dodgers should give him enough run support for the win. In cash games, Kershaw is your SP1 on both sites.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grade: A, D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grade: A, C
Jose Berrios – Twins at White Sox – FanDuel $9,200, DraftKings $9,300
I’m not touching on Dinelson Lamet against the Dodgers, but he is in play. Similar to this spot for Berrios, the matchup is tough. It’s just not as tough, which is why I’m leaning this way if looking to pay down from Kershaw. Berrios has flown under the radar this season while posting a very strong year. The results have been up and down, but he is striking out over 10 batters per nine for the first time in his career while maintaining the 4.18 xFIP. He’s now a guy with just a bit more upside than we’re used to, and he’s already taken care of the White Sox once this year with six innings, eight strikeouts and a win.
The White Sox are uber-powerful and have the ability to bomb any pitcher on any given night. They also strike out 25.2% of the time against right-handed pitching, which ranks fifth highest in baseball. If Berrios has his fastball and slider under control like he did two weeks ago, he’ll strike out over a batter per inning and the Twins should put him in a strong spot for a win. They’re -140 favorites over Chicago, and the White Sox hold an implied 4.30 run total. While Kershaw seems a bit safer, Berrios has a higher ceiling and he’s cheaper. Sign me up in tournaments.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grade: B, C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grade: B, C
Touki Toussaint – Braves at Orioles – FanDuel $6,800, DraftKings $5,600
You can’t be picky on a three-game slate that includes some elite offenses. Toussaint wasn’t perfect in his first major league stint, but he certainly showed the upside with that 42-FanDuel-point performance against the Jays in his third overall start. He’ll look to regain that magic tonight against the Orioles, who will give him every opportunity to have a big game. They strike out 24.2% of the time against right-handed pitching and offer the league’s third-lowest .ISO. Assuming Toussaint is able to keep the ball in the yard, I expect him to strike out six or seven in five innings while giving up two or three runs. That’s exactly what you’re looking for at this price.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grade: D, B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grade: C, A
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