The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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Top MLB DFS Value Plays
Mike Clevinger – Indians vs. Reds – FanDuel $9,600, DraftKings $9,200
Tonight’s slate is an interesting one, and it all begins at starting pitcher. Max Scherzer is pitching tonight, but that game starts early and isn’t included on the main slate on either site. That leaves us with Clevinger as the most popular elite arm on the slate, and he draws a phenomenal matchup with the Reds. Clevinger hasn’t been great in either of his first two starts, failing to eclipse 37 FanDuel points to date.
Clevinger sported a 3.09 and 12.07 K/9 in 2019 and looked like one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He’ll look to turn his season around in a big way against the Reds, who ranked 21st in baseball in 2019 while striking out 23.5% of the time. This lineup has through and through power, but they also strike out a ton and seem to go cold far too often. Clevinger is my favorite SP on this slate and is a strong play on both sites (priced better on FanDuel).
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, C
Sean Newcomb – Braves vs. Blue Jays – FanDuel $5,800, DraftKings $6,000
Awesemo projects Newcomb as the top value arm on both sites, and he isn’t expected to be heavily owned in the slightest. The matchup with Toronto is a great one, as they are going to be one of the five worst teams in 2020 against left-handed pitching. While a few guys in the order can go deep, all nine strike out frequently, and the squad has a ton of trouble putting together big innings, as none of these guys sport a very high wOBA. Newcomb is going to bounce back before long, and this matchup with Toronto is a perfect spot.
Newcomb was a dominant young gun in ’19, holding both righties and lefties to a sub-.302 wOBA. He struck out over 10 lefties per nine and gave up just eight home runs all year. The price on Newcomb is friendly, and there’s a very good chance he will go five-plus innings and pick up the win. Newcomb is a perfect SP2 on DraftKings, and you can make the case on FanDuel with a game in Coors Field.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: D, A
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: D, B
Lance McCullers – Astros at Diamondbacks – FanDuel $8,100, DraftKings $8,300
It’s been a tale of two tapes through the first two starts of the season for McCullers. He cut through the Mariners with ease before struggling with command and getting pushed around by the Angels. The young fireballer has battled injuries since his rookie year and hasn’t been able to pitch more 128 innings in a season. He’s looking to take a step forward this year as a top-level arm and will be asked to step up even more with Justin Verlander on the shelf.
The Astros are -140 favorites in Arizona, and the Diamondbacks hold just a 4.34 implied total. Against Robbie Ray, it’s impressive to see McCullers and the Astros as decent favorites on the road. A strikeout per inning is a lock, and the pitch count should approach 100 here. The Diamondbacks lineup is littered with strikeouts, and this could be a vintage 10-strikeout performance out of McCullers. He’s worth a look in tournaments, as his price is a bit tough to justify in cash games.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, D
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Top GPP Target
Yu Darvish – Cubs at Royals – FanDuel $9,500, DraftKings $9,5003
Darvish is going to be a headache, or better yet a migraine all season long as we try to figure out when he will show up and when he won’t. There’s a good chance that he knows as much as we do until he takes the mound and starts trying to dot his fastball on the corners. If he misses, it will be a short night and a disastrous one for your lineup. If his stuff is on, Darvish can strike out two batters per inning and looks like the best pitcher in baseball. He’s worth getting over the field in large-field tournaments.
The Cubs have been rolling of late, and they now go to Kansas City to play in one of the bigger ballparks in the MLB. If Darvish has his slider and changeup working, I fully expect the Royals to look foolish tonight. Don’t even touch Darvish in cash games, as there’s a chance he will be out of the game by the third inning. There’s also a decent shot he will be the top arm on the slate, so don’t take him off your board.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, C
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, D
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