It’s already Thursday, and a top-heavy MLB main slate is in tow when it comes to pitching options. With a six-game assortment on the menu, the options are few and far between, as it appears it’s Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola and then everybody else in the pond. While rostering batters around the likes of Bieber and Nola will certainly be achievable in a two-pitcher format on DraftKings, exposure to Coors Field five-man stacks from either Dodgers or Rockies will be rather difficult to get to.
With that said, we’ll have to get to some uncomfortable approaches in order to roster the lesser frugal stacks we’ll be aiming for. The following MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more free DraftKings and FanDuel MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top MLB DFS Value Plays
Shane Bieber – Indians at Detroit – DraftKings $10,900, FanDuel $11,900
In what is evident as a dream matchup, Bieber comes in as the far-and-away top pitching option on the main slate as the Cleveland Indians head to Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers. I’m sure you may be aware of the level of talent that Bieber has demonstrated over the past couple of years, but more than halfway through his third season, he’s out-of-this-world good. Rocking a 0.87 WHIP and cooking batters off the plate at the rate of a nasty 14.2 K/9, there’s no doubt who will be the chalk on Thursday’s short slate.
Despite the heavy ownership, can one really argue against locking him into as many lineups as possible? While that’s frowned upon in most circumstances, given this small slate size, the numbers in favor of Bieber resonate all the louder. He’s striking out batters 41.3% of the time this season, and coupling that with facing a Tigers team that leads the league in swinging strike rate (13.5%), the decision is that much simpler. Detroit also has a 92 wRC+ this season (22nd in Majors), and manufacturing runs should be that much harder to come by (20th in runs scored).
While the middle of the Tigers order can hit from either side of the plate, there’s not much power really there to be worried about, as they’re bringing a collective .166 ISO (20th) to the plate this season. Naturally Bieber costs you a lofty sum of salary on either site, and justifiably so. It will be difficult to afford some of the top stacks in tandem with Bieber, but the production and high ceilings here are more than proven over the course of the season.
Awesemo FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C
Awesemo DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Aaron Nola – Phillies vs. Mets – DraftKings $10,100, FanDuel $10,900
The clear-cut 1B on Thursday’s slate, Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies welcome the New York Mets to Citizens Bank Park in what’s a much more difficult matchup than that of Bieber’s. The Mets are touting the league’s top wRC+ rating of 124 and are 26th overall in strikeout rate, so they’re not only difficult to get off of the plate but also lethal while aboard it.
Nola, on the other hand, is having his best year of his pitching career by the numbers and pouring on the fantasy points along with it. He’s striking out batters to the tune of a 35.5% strikeout rate (fifth in Majors) and 12.3 K/9, along with only a 6% walk rate. Nola also accounts for an impressive 3.10 FIP and second-best 2.80 SIERA, only behind Bieber (2.43 SIERA).
Despite facing a Mets offense that’s quite potent against right-handed pitchers, Nola is more than effective against opposing lefties, striking them out 26.6% of the time while only walking 8.5%. He’s projected to face six lefties today. It isn’t going to be the most comfortable spend-up option ever when considering the opposition, but the silver lining is the decline in ownership on a short slate by comparison to that of Framber Valdez (who is still another great option).
Awesemo FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
Framber Valdez – Astros vs. Rangers – DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $9,100
As much as it pains me to go with a third chalk pitcher here to round things out, it’s difficult to twist the arm hard enough to go against sticking closely the top tier of pitching today, with a steep drop-off in offerings after Valdez on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While Masahiro Tanaka is roughly $1,000 cheaper ($800 on FanDuel, $1,40o on DraftKings), I much prefer the matchup in the Rangers for Valdez.
It’s not only the blatant matchup differential between the two pitchers, but the numbers this season for Valdez speak to greater lengths of promise (a cash game play particularly). He tends to get a longer leash than that of Tanaka, and Valdez has higher strikeout upside, albeit marginal at best (23.1% for Tanaka, 24.1% for Valdez). However, the strikeout opportunity becomes that much more glaring in contrast of their difference in opposition. With Texas striking out 24.8% of the season against left-handed pitchers (sixth in majors),and Toronto 22% of the time (22nd), the edge lends itself to Valdez.
The ownership differential is definitely one to entertain in thought, where Valdez finds himself as the chalkiest pitcher on the slate just behind Bieber, as opposed to the 17% vicinity that Tanaka hovers within. In tournaments I would definitely get some exposure to Tanaka for this reason, but I will be leaning in much heavier upon ownership for Valdez.
Awesemo FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
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