We enter Thursday’s MLB DFS endeavors upon a condensed six-game slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings (with having Thursday Night Football to compete with ratings). While six games is a bit thinned-out on MLB DFS picks options, there’s not so much of the top-heavy, stud-intensive pitcher offering today, thus ownership should at least be more spread out in Guaranteed Prize Pools.
In regards to GPPs, the other side of that coin is unfortunately that the slate seems that much more anemic when considering such potently painful options as Michael Fulmer and Tyler Alexander. So, in all likelihood, we’ll be having to get different among our batting order in tournaments with a tighter-knit pool of pitchers for ourselves than usual.
The following MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more free DraftKings and FanDuel MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top MLB DFS Pitching Plays
Walker Buehler – Dodgers vs. Athletics – DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $10,400
Walker Buehler is the spend-up-to-be-contrarian option on today’s main slate, although the matchup for him isn’t at all the most comfortable compared to that of other pitching options available. While he certainly wouldn’t be my top Cash Game play by any means, the strikeout potential for Buehler makes for an intriguing GPP play.
At the time of writing this, the ownership projection on pitchers has yet to be determined, yet one could presume Buehler will still be garnering field ownership given the lack of options on the slate along with his high fantasy ceiling capability. Buehler is also returning to action following a 10-day stint on the injured list with a finger injury, where skeptics may flock elsewhere in lieu of that detail.
Buehler’s 2020 has been anything but static, with his fantasy numbers drastically fluctuating over the course of the season, having made it difficult to roster him in several instances where the matchup and price outweighed the potential. Although his strikeouts are down 2.3% from last year (26.9% from 29.2%), the Dodgers righty is still representative of a 9.92 K/9 (9.90 K/9 in 2018), a 1.01 WHIP and .200 BABIP. His ground ball numbers (35.6%) and left-on-base percentage (66.1 %) could use a boost, but his .187 batting average against and 7.5% walk rate leave some promise intact.
Facing an Athletics batting order projected for five right-handed hitters, three lefties and one hitting from either side, Buehler’s work is cut out for him. Oakland is striking out against right-handed pitchers just above MLB’s league average at 23.6% (MLB average is 23.5%), while also manufacturing runs along the same middle-of-the-pack trend with a 103 wRC+ versus righties (100 MLB average). It’s Buehler’s strikeout upside that you’ll be paying up for here on a slate that features an entire lack of that capability.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
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Corbin Burnes – Brewers at Cardinals – DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $10,600
In just his third season with the Milwaukee Brewers, starting pitcher Corbin Burnes has been absolutely sensational. With a considerable discount over on DraftKings, and especially given the short slate, I would be shocked if Burnes wasn’t the highest-owned pitcher on the slate. But given his significant array of capabilities on a six-game slate, it would be difficult to fathom trying to go elsewhere.
The Brewers right-handed stud has been tossing gems all season long, and today should prove no different against the St. Louis Cardinals mid-tier offense. Where to begin with Burnes? He’s rocking an 0.90 WHIP while currently leading the National League in Earned Runs Allowed with a 1.77 ERA and striking out an astounding 38% of batters (fourth in majors). Burnes is also leading MLB in both hits per nine innings with 5.0 and in FIP at 1.78 . Averaging 38.54 FanDuel points and 22.9 DraftKings points per game, Burnes is the apparent good chalk on a six-game assortment. Facing a Cardinals team striking out just above league average at 23.9% and engineering offense below league average with a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, Burnes is going to be the closest thing to the oft-tabooed Lock Button as there gets.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Kris Bubic – Royals vs. Tigers – DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $8,100
If there was an option on this slate that I would anticipate being next in line to be the highest-owned pitcher, it would most likely point to Royals’ Kris Bubic. This is due to the undeniably fantastic matchup the Detroit Tigers always provide on the plate for opposing pitchers, yet also in part to the affordability of Bubic.
Besides the welcomed matchup in the Tigers and his extremely frugal price point, Bubic is posting some manageable numbers for his asking price. Although his 1.39 WHIP is just below major league average among pitchers (1.32 WHIP is average), the Royals rookie lefty is tossing a decent 22.2% strikeout rate. While also just beneath league average (23.4%), one must also keep in mind of some of the monsters posting stellar strikeout numbers at the top of that list. Against these Detroit Tigers, 22.2% strikeouts and 8.74 K/9 isn’t anything to complain much about at his reduced price point, especially on DraftKings.
Although his stat lines aren’t anything to go cawing about, his affordability make for the wiggle room to get to Burnes and an expensive stack such as the Dodgers squaring off with Mike Fiers. The opposing Tigers are the added selling point despite actually faring surprisingly well against left-handed pitchers all season. Over the past 30 days the Detroit offense has produced a subpar 91 wRC+ and a 26.4% strikeout rate coupled with a 13% swinging strike rate (second in MLB). And after holding his own against the White Sox offense two starts in a row for him, Bubic has considerable value with few options besides him to write home about.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value B
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